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Content available remote Mechanizm transmisji impulsów polityki monetarnej dla polskiej gospodarki
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Celem artykułu jest zdefiniowanie mechanizmu transmisji impulsów polityki monetarnej dla polskiej gospodarki oraz określenie wpływu szoków z obszaru tej polityki na indykatory makroekonomiczne jak poziom cen czy PKB. W tym celu wykorzystano ateoretyczny model wektorowej autoregresji oraz przeprowadzono jego strukturalizację rekursywną zaproponowaną przez Simsa (1980) wykorzystując przy tym dekompozycję Choleskyego. Pozwoliło to na wyodrębnienie wpływu szoków: podażowego, popytowego, monetarnego oraz kursowego na wartość oraz tempo wzrostu produkcji, inflacji oraz kursu walutowego. Uwidoczniono w ten sposób istnienie w polskiej gospodarce zjawiska output oraz price puzzle. (abstrakt oryginalny)
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The aim of this article is to define the monetary transmission mechanism of the Polish economy and to identify the impact of shocks from the monetary policy on macroeconomic indicators such as price levels or GDP. In this regard there were used a theoretical vector autoregression model and conducted its recursive structure proposed by Sims (1980) using Cholesky decomposition. This allowed to isolate the impact of shocks: a supply, a demand, monetary and exchange rate on the value and output growth, inflation and exchange rate. Thanks to this it was visualized in the Polish economy a phenomenon of output and price puzzle. (original abstract)
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Content available remote The Transmission Mechanism of Unconventional Monetary Policy
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The implementation of unconventional (nonstandard) monetary policy instruments by the leading central banks at the wake of the financial and economic crisis was the most significant shift in the practice of central banking in the recent years. Evaluation of their effects is not feasible without a thorough recognition of the transmission mechanism of various balance-sheet policies, such as quantitative easing. The transmission channels of a standard interest-rate policy are based on a group of theories that are relatively coherent and well-documented. On the contrary, identification of similar framework for unconventional measures proved to be a complicated task. The aim of this paper is to extract and evaluate the theoretical efficiency of particular channels of unconventional monetary policy. This goal requires references to at least several, to some extent mutually exclusive, theories. It is also inevitable to draw one's attention to the relative significance of identified channels, depending on the nature of used unconventional tools, as well as on reactions of financial institutions and other economic agents to undertaken actions. This paper discusses three broad channel of the unconventional policies transmission mechanism: the signaling channel, the liquidity channel, and the portfolio-balance channel. (original abstract)
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Zacznijmy od uwag dotyczących dwóch słów kluczowych: "makrostruktura" i "transmisja monetarna". "Pojęcia - jak piszą Ch. Frankfort-Nachmias i D. Nachmias - umożliwiają klasyfikowanie i generalizację, pozwalają strukturyzować, kategoryzować i porządkować zjawiska oraz procesy". Przede wszystkim jednak, bo taką funkcję pojęć chcemy uwypuklić, pojęcia wprowadzają perspektywę - pewien szczególny sposób patrzenia na zjawiska empiryczne. W oglądzie nas interesujących aspektów polityki monetarnej taką perspektywę stworzy cybernetyka. W cybernetyce stawia się pytania,, jak to działa? a nie "z czego jest zrobione?. (fragment tekstu)
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The monetary transmission mechanism is an element of the economy control program. The rules of this mechanism's modelling are based on the assumption, that there can be observed the regularity in the manner of the influence of a central bank's monetary policy on the real sphere of economy. The monetary impulse, which is generated by a central bank has a dual nature - it is a stimulus for commercial banks (in the first place) and at the same time a message send to all others actors of economic activity. This communication process between the monetary authority and the monetary environment requires to be substantially emphasized within rules of the modelling of monetary transmission mechanisms. The rules of monetary policy become the salient issue along the process of creation of an effective communication bridge between a central bank and its economic neighbourhood.(original abstract)
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Cel - przegląd i identyfikacja podstawowych czynników strukturalnych, które przyczyniły się do zmian w mechanizmie transmisji monetarnej USA w latach 1984-2013. Metodologia badania - wielopłaszczyznowa jakościowa analiza czynników strukturalnych charakterystycznych dla gospodarki USA. Wynik - rozwój innowacyjnych instrumentów finansowych, zwiększenie otwartości handlowej oraz deregulacja amerykańskiego systemu finansowego wywarły wpływ na zmianę charakteru procesu transmisji impulsów polityki pieniężnej w USA. Oryginalność/wartość - mechanizm transmisji monetarnej nie został do końca poznany przez ekonomistów. W polskiej literaturze przedmiotu brakuje badań poświęconych analizie amerykańskiego mechanizmu transmisji polityki pieniężnej. (abstrakt oryginalny)
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Purpose - the review and identification of the underlying structural factors that have contributed to the changes in the transmission mechanism of U.S. monetary policy in the years 1984-2013. Methodology - multi-dimensional qualitative analysis of the structural factors characteristic for the economy of the United. Findings - the Federal Reserve System's monetary transmission mechanism . In particular, the development of innovative financial instruments, increasing trade openness and deregulation of the U.S. financial system have influenced on the change in the nature of the process of monetary policy transmission in the United States. Originality - the monetary transmission mechanism is not completely understood by economists. In the Polish literature of the subject there is a lack of researches devoted to the analysis of the transmission mechanism of U.S. monetary policy. (original abstract)
Equilibrium
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2016
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tom 11
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nr nr 4
751-767
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The experience of Japan from the 90s of the twentieth century and the recent global financial crisis has shown that the zero lower bound problem has ceased to be a theoretical curiosity and became the subject of intense scientific discussion. This issue is closely linked with John Maynard Keynes's liquidity trap. The phenomenon of the zero lower bound is very controversial. Not all economists agree that it may restrict the effectiveness of the central bank's actions. The aim of the article is to present the views of economists on this transmission mechanism of monetary policy under the zero lower bound. The paper also attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve System's monetary policy at zero nominal interest rates. (original abstract)
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The article presents the results of the review of the empirical literature regarding the impact of quantitative easing (QE) on emerging markets (EMs). The subject is of interest to policymakers and researchers due to the increasingly larger role of EMs in the world economy and the large-scale capital flows occurring after 2009. The review is conducted in a systematic manner and takes into consideration different methodological choices, samples and measurement issues. The paper puts the summarized results in the context of transmission channels identified in the literature. There are few distinct methodological approaches present in the literature. While there is a consensus regarding the direction of the impact of QE on EMs, its size and durability have not yet been assessed with sufficient precision. In addition, there are clear gaps in the empirical findings, not least related to relative underrepresentation of the CEE region (in particular, Poland). (original abstract)
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W artykule dokonano analizy wybranych czynników strukturalnych charakterystycznych dla gospodarki Polski i strefy euro, które mają istotny wpływ na funkcjonowanie mechanizmu transmisji monetarnej. Artykuł podzielono na dwie części. W pierwszej zaprezentowano rozważania teoretyczne na temat wpływu impulsów generowanych przez bank centralny na realną sferę gospodarki. Następnie przedstawiono przegląd cech strukturalnych gospodarki oraz systemu finansowego Polski i strefy euro. Wnioskowanie statystyczne zostało oparte na danych dotyczących strefy euro oraz wybranych państw UE(abstrakt oryginalny)
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This article was provided a comparison of selected structural factors characteristic for the euro area and Polish economy, which have a significant impact on the functioning of the monetary transmission mechanism. The paper is divided into two major parts. In the first part the transmission mechanism of monetary policy was described. Then the overview of structural economy conditions and financial system in the Polish and the euro area was contained. Statistical inference on the basis of data for the euro area and selected EU countries was carried out.(original abstract)
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W artykule omówiono trzy grupy czynników strukturalnych mających wpływ na funkcjonowanie mechanizmu transmisji impulsów polityki pieniężnej i jego poszczególnych kanałów. Pierwsza grupa związana jest ze skalą monetyzacji gospodarki. Druga grupa zawiera w sobie bardziej szczegółowe uwarunkowania samego mechanizmu transmisji monetarnej, tj. strukturę popytu krajowego (PKB), stopień otwartości gospodarki oraz strukturę źródeł finansowania przedsiębiorstw i gospodarstw domowych. Trzecia grupa czynników strukturalnych odnosi się do charakterystyk systemu bankowego.
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Content available remote A Global Perspective on Inflation and Propagation Channels
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This paper revisits the evidence on monetary policy transmission. It extends the existing literature in three dimensions. First, we attempt to internalise potential international channels of transmission by taking a global perspective. More specifically, we explore global aggregates covering a broader set of countries (ca. 70% per cent of the world economy) and a longer time span (from 1960 to 2013) than previous studies. Second, we broaden the set of transmission channels considered, notably by exploring interactions among monetary variables, inflation and asset prices (including residential property prices). Third, we look at the potential role of public debt in driving price developments, on the grounds underpinned by fiscal theories of the price level. On the basis of a VAR analysis, we find that: (1) global money demand shocks affect global inflation and global commodity prices (which, in turn, impact on inflation); (2) global asset price dynamics respond to financing cost shocks and (very modestly) to shocks to global money demand; and (3) positive house price shocks exert a significant influence on inflation. From a global perspective, the study suggests that an understanding of inflation requires recognition of the externalities that global commodity and asset price developments exert over domestic inflation. (original abstract)
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Motivation: Monetary policy decisions, through the process of transmission mechanism, affect the term structure of nominal interest rates as well as other asset prices, and thus influences aggregate demand (e.g. consumer spending and business investments) and price levels through these effects. The aspect of monetary transmission to various components of aggregate demand has been relatively little studied in the literature of the subject. Aim: The main aim of the study is to empirically investigate the effect of the Fed's monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand over the past 35 years. To this aim, the scale and timing of the interest rate pass-through to economic activity have been examined. Results: The empirical findings showed that that between 1984 and 2019, the sensitivity of consumption and investment expenditures to interest rate impulses were different. Firstly, fixed investment spending accounted for a significant part that was responsible for the response of real GDP following an interest rate shock. Secondly, in the case of personal consumption expenditures, expenses for durable goods were more sensitive to changes in the Fed's interest rate than spending on services and nondurable goods. In this way, the study expands the existing literature by reporting the effects of the Fed's monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand over the past 35 years. (original abstract)
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The main aim of prudential regulations is to increase the stability of financial systems; however, such regulations also increase the risk-taking tendency of banks, they encourage them to combine and limit their lending possibilities with, at the same time, lowering the efficiency of monetary policy in affecting economic processes. Thus, it occurs as a reasonable solution to integrate macroprudential supervision with monetary policy of the central bank and to subsequently limit the pro-cycle character of these regulations. The aim of this article is to discuss the importance of the regulatory channel in the process of transmitting impulses of monetary policy into economy and to overview the results of research, which analyzed the influence of macroprudential regulations on bank lending policy as well as their sensitivity towards monetary policy of the central bank. (original abstract)
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Aim: This paper aims to discover the evolution of monetary transmission in Spain by focusing on the short-term interest rate, credit aggregates and house prices through different stages of economic development and European integration between 1975 and 2008. In addition, the analysis devotes special attention to the interval of the last housing boom, in order to reveal the importance of the interest rate policy of the ECB. Design / Research methods: The study applies a tri-variate autoregressive model assigned to three overlapping periods outlined by regime shifts in the Spanish economy. The estimation output determines the strength and persistency of the links between interest rates, credit aggregates and house prices. Consequently, the results of the econometric analysis provide proper base for comparison in order to identify the dominating channels of monetary transmissions through a prolonged period. Conclusions / findings: It is found that the transmission mechanism in Spain essentially altered over time since 1975. At the beginning of the full analysed interval the role of the credit channel was dominant, then its importance gradually diminished. After the EMU accession the traditional interest rate channel became the leading factor with an intensified and more persistent effect on house prices. Originality / value of the article: While there are numerous researches aimed at estimating the impact of monetary policy on the real economy, empirical studies focusing exclusively on the link between interest rate policy and house prices in Spain are still rare. As the present paper concentrates solely on the Spanish characteristics through extended interval, the study provides country-specific inferences. Implications of the research: Understanding the mechanism of the monetary policy effects on the housing sector is an essential aspect of designing policy interventions aimed at keeping house price development in check. Limitations of the research: Despite the significant results of the empirical analysis, the excessively dynamic increase in the property prices suggests that the factor of irrational expectations also played important role in the latest Spanish housing bubble.(original abstract)
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Niniejszy artykuł przedstawia teoretyczne podwaliny mechanizmu transmisji impulsów polityki monetarnej jako głównego elementu wykonawczego polityki monetarnej. Publikacja jest również próbą odpowiedzi na pytanie dotyczące skuteczności polityki monetarnej Europejskiego Banku Centralnego w porównaniu do polityki krajowych banków centralnych w zakresie nie tylko stabilizacji cenowej, lecz również działań na rzecz wzrostu gospodarczego.(abstrakt oryginalny)
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The article presents theoretical foundations of the mechanisms of transmission of impulses in monetary policy as it's main elements. The publication attempts to answer questions in comparison to the policy of a national central bank, concerning the efficiency of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank in favor of economic growth and other operations.(original abstract)
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Głównym instrumentem NBP, dzięki któremu może on wpływać w znaczący sposób na sferę realną gospodarki są stopy procentowe. W naszym kraju decyzje dotyczące zmiany poziomu podstawowych stóp procentowych w NBP (w tym stopy lombardowej, referencyjnej i depozytowej) podejmowane są kolegialnie i za to odpowiedzialna jest Rada Polityki Pieniężnej. Jednak w Polsce dopiero od roku 2000 zaistniały właściwe warunki w stosowaniu płynnego kursu walutowego oraz strategii bezpośredniego celu inflacyjnego przez NBP dla pełnego zastosowania mechanizmu transmisji impulsów monetarnych.
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W artykule omówiono mechanizm transmisji monetarnej oraz główne kanały transmisji. Przedstawiono estymację funkcji konsumpcji i inwestycji. Opisano wpływ zmian cen aktywów na konsumpcję i inwestycje w Niemczech.
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We evaluate two most popular approaches to implementing financial frictions into DSGE models: the Bernanke et al. (1999) setup, where frictions afect the price of loans, and the Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) model, where they concern the quantity of loans. We take both models to the data and check how well they fit it on several margins. Overall, comparing the models favors the Bernanke et al. framework. However, even this model does not make a clear improvement over the New Keynesian benchmark in terms of marginal likelihood and similarity of impulse responses to those obtained from a VAR. These findings point at the need for further research to develop macrofinancial models that would better describe the business cycle dynamics. (original abstract)
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Narodowy Bank Polski już dziesiąty rok realizuje politykę pieniężną w ramach strategii bezpośredniego celu inflacyjnego (BCI). Istotą tego typu strategii jest fakt, że jej nadrzędnym celem jest stabilność cen, która ma odzwierciedlenie w celach inflacyjnych banku centralnego. Mogłoby się wydawać, że ocena realizacji celów polityki pieniężnej w Polsce powinna dotyczyć wyłącznie celu nadrzędnego. Założenia strategiczne BCI w Polsce przewidują jednak również realizację innych celów, jak wspieranie produkcji i zatrudnienia. Cele te można uznać za drugorzędne i z założenia powinny być realizowane w sytuacji, gdy nie szkodzą celowi nadrzędnemu. Pełna ocena celów polityki pieniężnej w ramach BCI powinna się odnosić do wszystkich wyżej wymienionych celów. Oczywiście należy zachować przy tym hierarchię ich ważności. Celem niniejszego opracowania jest ocena strategicznych celów polityki pieniężnej w Polsce w ramach BCI. W badaniu wykorzystana zostanie wielowymiarowa analiza porównawcza (WAP). Dzięki temu możliwe będzie ujednolicenie poszczególnych celów i w konsekwencji skonstruowanie kompleksowego miernika oceny. Wstępem do oceny będzie poznanie jej przedmiotu, to znaczy strategii polityki pieniężnej w Polsce i wynikającego z niej układu celów strategicznych. (fragment tekstu)
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This paper exploits a case study of a country belonging to a group of less developed emerging markets (LDEMEs). This group has features which challenge standard New-Keynesian (NK) assumptions. These are: underdeveloped and shallow financial market, uncompetitive labour market, informal economy, weak institutions, problematic central bank independence, state ownership and controls, monetary policy targeting multiple variables. To overcome problems which might arise from using standard models, the paper proposes a complex strategy of modelling monetary transmission in LDEMEs: (i) SVARs which reflect the central bank's simultaneous recourse to multiple policy instruments and targets, and (ii) NK structural models, which capture such features as an immature financial market, exchange rate interventions, and price subsidies. This way, a range of possible reactions of basic macroeconomic variables to monetary policy instruments is obtained. Such approach, combining multiple econometric techniques, reduces uncertainty concerning specification, parameters and equilibria. (original abstract)
EN
The aim of the present paper is the analysis of the functioning of the cost channel (working capital) in the mechanism of transmitting a monetary policy into the Polish economy as well as the attempt to assess its strengths. To accomplish the above-stated goal, one attempted to solve the following two research problems: is the cost channel operative in Poland patent and what is its strength and efficiency? What was also analysed is the correlation between the level of the benchmark rate of the National Bank of Poland [hereinafter also referred to as NBP] and the value of the working capital relative to current assets and to sales revenues made by the business enterprises in Poland in the period 2005-2017. By analogy, what was also subject to correlation analysis was the relation between the base interest rate of the National Bank and the value of investment expenditures in Poland. At the next stage, via an inductive method, one conducted a synthesis of the conclusions obtained by way of a comparative analysis of the results of one's own research against the backdrop of the ones obtained by way of the analysis of the influence of a monetary policy exerted on the supply side of an economy, with the latter results having been obtained in consequence of global econometric research. The correlation analysis thus conducted seems to corroborate the influence of the monetary policy pursued by the National Bank of Poland on real economic indices in Poland; and, strictly speaking, on financial policies of companies. Any change in the interest rates of banks seems to significantly influence the cost of the companies' maintaining working capital. The research results presented herein are exceptionally important from the point of view of the efficacy of a monetary policy. In the process of designing it, the central bank should take into consideration any additional supply effects. In connection with the strongly positive correlation, as demonstrated in the present paper, between the value of the working capital and investment expenditures and the level of interest rates, it is necessary to have a better grasp of the mechanism of cost channel in a given economy as well as to do the ongoing monitoring thereof. (original abstract)
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The article supplements the research on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission - especially through the bank lending channel. The current study focuses on assessing the transmission of monetary impulses through commercial and cooperative banks as well as through individual loan portfolios, while distinguishing between the fact that they were granted by commercial and cooperative banks. How a change in the central bank's interest rates may determine a change in the volume of loans in the economy remains the core question of the research. (original abstract)
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