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A Comparison of the Usefulness of Winters' and SARIMA Models in Forecasting of Procurement Prices of Milk in Poland

100%

Lira J.

nr nr 1

325-333

In the paper the Winters' model has been studied as one from adaptive models based on exponential smoothing methods as well as seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model SARIMA. The aim of the paper is the assessment of accuracy of short-term forecasts of procurement prices of milk in Poland. Empirical verification of ex post forecasts of monthly procurement prices of milk on the basis of 109 time series with 12-month forecast horizon was conducted. Forecasts constructed with the use of SARIMA model are more often exact than when additive and multiplicative Winters' model are used. (original abstract)

Forecasting Passenger Traffic in Poland - Lech Walesa Airport Case

100%

Ziółkowski K.

nr nr 6 tom 1

619-629

We współczesnej gospodarce, w tym w logistyce, nie można uciec od metod ilościowych i coraz bardziej wyrafinowanych programów komputerowych. Jednak gospodarka nie może zostać zredukowana tylko do aspektów ilościowych, ponieważ wiele złożonych procesów, które odgrywają ważną rolę w życiu gospodarczym, nie może być wyrażona za pomocą języka matematyki. Polski rynek lotniczy jest już tak rozwinięty, że jego dane liczbowe pokazują nie tylko liczbę obsługiwanych pasażerów, ale także wyniki finansowe, które odzwierciedlają skalę naszej działalności związanej z obsługą ruchu lotniczego. W artykule przedstawiono podstawowe modele stosowane w logistyce do prognozowania ruchu pasażerskiego. (abstrakt oryginalny)

In the contemporary economy, including the logistics, one cannot get away from quantitative methods and more and more sophisticated computer programmes. However, the economy cannot be reduced only to the quantitative aspects, because many of complex processes that play an important role in the economic life cannot be expressed by using the language of mathematics. The Polish airline market has been already so much developed that its figures show not only the number of the passengers served but also the financial results which reflect the scale of our activity related to air traffic handling. This article presents basic models applied in logistics to forecast passenger traffic. The article characterises two basic approaches to econometric modelling and forecasting. (original abstract)

Short-term forecasting of the chloride content in the mineral waters of the Ustroń Health Resort using SARIMA and Holt-Winters models

80%

Dąbrowska D. , Sołtysiak M. , Waligóra J.

tom 3

nr nr 4

57-65

The Ustroń S.A. Health Resort (southern Poland) uses iodide-bromide mineral waters taken from Middle and Upper Devonian limestones and dolomites with a mineralisation range of 110-130 g/dm3 for curative purposes. Two boreholes - U-3 and U3-A drilled in the early 1970s were exploited. The aim of this paper is to estimate changes in mineral water quality of the Ustroń Health Resort by taking into consideration chloride content in the water from the U-3 borehole. The data has included the results of monthly analyses of chlorides from 2005 to 2015 during the tests carried out by the Mining Department of the Health Resort. The triple exponential smoothing (ETS) function and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method of modelling time series were used for the calculations. The ability to properly forecast mineral water quality can result in a good status of the exploitation borehole and a limited number of failures in the exploitation system. Because of the good management of health resorts, it is possible to acquire more satisfied customers. The main goal of the article involves the real-time forecast accuracy, obtained results show that the proposed methods are effective for such situations. Presented methods made it possible to obtain a 24-month point and interval forecast. The results of these analyses indicate that the chloride content is forecast to be in the range of 72 to 83 g/l from 2015 to 2017. While comparing the two methods of analysis, a narrower range of forecast values and, therefore, greater accuracy were obtained for the ETS function. The good performance of the ETS model highlights its utility compared with complicated physically based numerical models.(original abstract)