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Poland–USA sectoral trade balances: regime shifts and the nonlinear impact of currency fluctuations

100%

Pruchnicka-Grabias I. , Piekunko-Mantiuk I. , Hegerty S. W.

nr 1

116-133

Purpose – The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country’s trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s Western neighbors as they have grown in volume. This study examines Poland’s trade balances in ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sectors versus the United States of America, first testing for and isolating structural breaks in each time series. These breaks are then included in a set of the cointegration models to examine their macroeconomic determinants. Design/methodology/approach – Linear and nonlinear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models, both with and without dummies corresponding to structural breaks, are estimated. Findings – One key finding is that incorporating these breaks reduces the significance of the real exchange rate in the model, supporting the hypothesis that this variable already incorporates important information. It also results in weaker evidence for cointegration of all variables in certain sectors. Research limitations/implications – This study looks only at one pair of countries, without any third-country effects. Originality/value – An important country pair’s trade relations is examined; in addition, the real exchange rate is shown to incorporate economic information that results in structural changes in the economy. The paper extends the existing literature by conducting an analysis of Poland’s trade balances with the USA, which have not been studied in such a context so far. A strong point is a broad methodology that lets compare the results the authors obtained with different kinds of models, both linear and nonlinear ones, with and without structural breaks.

Zewnętrzne bezzwrotne i nieodpłatne źródła finansowania startupów w polskim ekosystemie startupowym

100%

Piekunko-Mantiuk I. , Kolejnik P. , Szorc M.

nr 12

50-60

The aim of the article is to indicate in an organised and condensed way the non-repayable and unpaid sources of start-up funding in the Polish ecosystem, as well as the analysis of their accessibility. The research material has been based on data and information included in the publications and reports provided by the institutions supporting the development of start-ups and innovations (e.g. NCBR, PARP, PFR, Startup Poland), the Internet websites of public support systems (containing the competition regulations and documentation) together with numerous websites of private entities (containing program regulations and documentation). The analysis has been formed in respect of non-returnable forms of support, subjective and objective scope, along with the amount of funding. As a result the shortcomings of the non-repayable start-up funding system in Poland have been exposed.

Celem artykułu jest wskazanie w sposób uporządkowany i skondensowany źródeł bezzwrotnego i nieodpłatnego finansowania startupów w polskim ekosystemie oraz analiza ich dostępności. Materiał badawczy stanowiły dane i informacje zawarte w publikacjach i raportach instytucji wspierających rozwój startupów i innowacji (m.in. NCBR, PARP, PFR, Startup Poland), strony internetowe publicznych programów wsparcia (zawierające regulaminy i dokumentację konkursową) oraz liczne strony internetowe prywatnych podmiotów (zawierające regulaminy i dokumentację programów). Analizy zebranego materiału dokonano pod kątem bezzwrotnych form wsparcia, zakresu podmiotowego i przedmiotowego oraz wielkości finansowania. W konsekwencji przeprowadzonej analizy wskazano mankamenty bezzwrotnego systemu finansowania startupów w Polsce.