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Metodyka prognozowania zapotrzebowania na moc jako narzędzie na potrzeby planowania rozwoju sieci dystrybucyjnych

100%

Korpikiewicz J. G. , Bronk L. , Magulski R.

2013

tom Nr 33

27--30

Przedstawiona w referacie metodyka prognozowania zapotrzebowania na moc łączy techniki ekstrapolacji trendów, wynikających z historycznych danych pomiarowych z wykorzystaniem informacji o potencjale rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego rozpatrywanego obszaru oraz prognoz makroekonomicznych i demograficznych, dostępnych dla różnych szczebli podziału terytorialnego kraju. Zastosowanie proponowanej metodyki pozwala wykonać projekcje zapotrzebowania na moc w węzłach 110kV oraz 15/0,4 kV w średnim i długim horyzoncie czasowym.

Planning for the development of the distribution network, providing the required level of reliability, while minimizing expenditures for the expansion requires a forecast of future demand for power end-users connected to the network. Dynamics of changes in electrical load will depend on many factors, both local (eg, changes in the structure and number of customers) and global (eg, changes in energy intensity of consumption). Presented in the paper forecasting methodology combines the power demand trend extrapolation techniques, resulting from historical measurement data, with using the information about the potential socio-economic development and available economic and demographic forecasts at different levels of territorial division of the country. Application of the proposed methodology allows to perform medium and long term projections of demand for power in the nodes of distribution network.

Short-term fluctuations of chlorophyll α fluorescence versus diurnal variations of solar radiation in the surface water of the Gdańsk Basin

88%

Magulski R. , Falkowska L. , Dunajska D. , Pryputniewicz D. , Sikorowicz G.

2004

tom Vol. 33, No. 3

57--68

Measurements of chlorophyll α fluorescence accompanied by solar radiation measurements were carried out during two spring cruises in the region of the Gdańsk Basin. Chlorophyll α fluorescence, similarly to that of chlorophyll a concentration in the seawater, showed considerable diurnal variability. The measurements provided statistically significant negative correlation coefficients that indicated that chlorophyll α fluorescence is inhibited as solar PAR and UV radiation intensity increases. The approximate range of radiation intensity that corresponded to a clearly marked decline in chlorophyll α fluorescence and chlorophyll α concentration was determined. It was revealed that the decline in chlorophyll a concentration in the surface water layer resulted from the photodegradation of chlorophyll α as well as phytoplankton grazing. In both cases, the resulting observation was an increase of pheophytine a concentration. The vertical migration of phytoplankton was identified as an additional process induced by high radiation levels.

The impact of solar radiation on changes in chlorophyll a concentration in the sea surface microlayer in the Southern Baltic

75%

Falkowska L. , Pryputniewicz D. , Magulski R. , Dunajska D. , Sikorowicz G. , Kowacz M.

tom 34

nr 3

Iron wet deposition in the coastal zone of the Gulf of Gdansk [Poland]

63%

Dunajska D. , Falkowska L. , Siudek P. , Sikorowicz G. , Lewandowska A. , Pryputniewicz D. , Magulski R. , Kowacz M.

nr 1

The concentrations of total iron were determined in the 30 rainwater samples collected at Gdynia station, located in the coastal zone of Gulf of Gdansk. The samples were assembled from December 2002 to November 2003. Total iron concentrations were measured using a colorimetric method with bathophenanthroline. The concentrations of major rain components (Na⁺, NO₃⁻-, Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻) were also determined. Concentrations of Fetot ranged from 0.26 μg·dm⁻³ to 0.51·10⁻³ μg·dm⁻³. The total annual flux of Fetot was 11.22 mg·m⁻²yr⁻¹, which suggests that wet deposition can be one iron source for phytoplankton in the Southern Baltic. Iron in rain came from both terrestrial areas and seawater. Particularly at E&SE winds the swash zone saturated with marigenic aerosols was a significant source of iron. In these causes an anthropogenic influence on rain acidification was found to be minimal.