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EN
In this study, a macroeconomic model and the multicriteria approach are used to analyze the impact of the enforced greenhouse gas (GHG) emission limits on economic development and future consumption in a small open economy country, like Poland. The following questions are considered: how economic transformation, connected with adjustment of the national economy to the policy limiting GHG emission would proceed? what may be the consequences of the enforced emission limits for the economic development and future consumption? The model answers these questions by presenting time trajectories, describing the evolution of three sectors, which influence GHG emission, namely those producing intermediary inputs, consumer goods, and investment goods. The sectors interact via markets of the relevant goods. The model takes into account the inertial behavior of the large-scale dynamic system, as well as social and political resistance to changes. It also indicates technological changes in the form of time-varying shares of two technologies, namely the GHG emission intensive and the GHG emission avoiding ones. Two competing objectives are considered in the multicriteria analysis, i.e. maximization of consumption and minimization of GHG emission. The costs of pursuing the GHG limiting policy are assessed in terms of lost consumption. The multicriteria analysis is performed with the use of the derived representation of the Pareto optimal outcomes. Computational results are presented for the case of Poland. They show three phases in a transition period, early growth on the basis of existing assets in the initial years, a depression phase, where technological changes mainly occur, and a period of renewed growth. They are followed by a steady development under new emission conditions.
2
EN
The analysis presented in this paper is focused on basic properties of discrete distributed lag models. Such models are commonly used to model dynamic systems in various applications. In the presented considerations, time-varying distributed lags have been analyzed. Composite distributed lag models analyzed in this paper result from the summation or superposition of component distributed lag models. The analysis is restricted to models with a lag distribution, whose mean lag and variance exist. The paper presents relationships between the mean values and variances of the lag distributions of composite distributed lag models and of the component distributed lag models, as well as the relationships between the variance of the random term of composite distributed lag models and the variance of the random term of the component distributed lag models.
EN
Distributed lag models are an important tool in modeling dynamic systems in economics. In the analysis of composite forms of such models, the component models are ordered in parallel (with the same independent variable) and/or in series (where the independent variable is also the dependent variable in the preceding model). This paper presents an analysis of certain deterministic properties of composite distributed lag models composed of component distributed lag models arranged in sequence, and their asymptotic properties in particular. The models considered are in discrete form. Even though the paper focuses on deterministic properties of distributed lag models, the derivations are based on analytical tools commonly used in probability theory such as probability distributions and the central limit theorem.
4
Content available remote Trwałość reperów w aspekcie długookresowych pomiarów przemieszczeń obiektu
EN
The article deals with the problems connected with the arrangement and durability of bench marks used for measurements of vertical displacements of objects. There have been presented objects on which long term measurements of displacements were performed. Although there are different causes of poor durability, it is primarily the effect of insufficient knowledge as to how to mark the determined displacements.
PL
Przedstawiono wyniki inwentaryzacji znaków wielkiej wody w Bydgoszczy pod kątem ich przydatności do oceny współczesnego ryzyka powodziowego.
EN
The article presents the results of inventory of the flood level markers in Bydgoszcz in terms of their usefulness for the assessment of the contemporary flood threat.
EN
In this paper, examples of graphic presentations of performed measurement results have been presented. These results concern vertical and horizontal dislocations and deformations of given objects. The monitored objects were two churches, both situated near a very busy street, and a hall of a newly built building. One church was about 80 years old and the other 100 years old. The visualization of the findings, mainly presented in the 3D technique, is of great importance for interpretation of the change geometry of the objects in time and finding the causes of their dislocations and deformations.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono przykłady graficznej prezentacji wyników pomiarów przemieszczeń poziomych i pionowych oraz odkształceń wybranych obiektów. Monitorowane obiekty to kościoły: 80. letni i ponad 100. letni położony przy ulicy o bardzo dużym natężeniu ruchu oraz hala nowo wybudowanego obiektu. Wizualizacja wyników, głównie w układzie 3D, ma duże znaczenie dla interpretacji zmian geometrii obiektu w czasie oraz ustalenia przyczyn przemieszczeń i deformacji.
9
Content available remote Dynamics of loans in the Polish banking system
EN
At the macro level, the time-series of the amounts of loans granted (a flow) and repaid (a flow) to the banking system in each period are not available. The information on these flows is important in many analyses, such as the impact of the bank lending on investment outlays. However, one can get the information concerning the structure of loans (a stock variable) regarding their duration. In each period, the loans are granted for different periods: from overnight ones to those lasting several years. The effective preferences of the credit takers are reflected in the term distribution of the outstanding loans. In order to estimate these flows, a model aimed at linking the above-mentioned preferences, the levels of loans and flows has been developed. In the approach proposed, the amount of loans outstanding is a resultant of the rate of the new loans and their duration, which in turn is the result of the term preferences. The evaluation of the flow of loans granted in the Polish banking sector is presented.
EN
Before research, a graphical analysis of time series is important to carry out because the configuration of empirical points in a proper Cartesian coordinate system enables one to make a decision which class the researched trend function belongs to. When verifying the model it should be checked whether received values of structural parameters estimation are reasonable. The method of extrapolation of time series can be used to forecast only in case when the mechanism of development of the researched effect does not change in time considerably or in case if the mechanism of development of the researched effect is not known and we cannot recognize it. The forecast horizon can be dependent on inertia of researched variables. For variables with a big inertia the forecast horizon can be considerably longer. Longer forecast horizon corresponds with less probability of occurrence of the provided state and simultaneously certainty of the forecast is less. Another question is a stability of the model. It does not mean that the model will be stable after the period the model was estimated, i.e. it will be stable in future. Adaptive models are useful in case of lack of stability in the researched period. Forecast procedures based on those models assume that the effect intensification in time can be segmental, i.e. "smooth", only in some intervals of time. Such models are particularly important for short-term forecasts. Taking one of the following models into account depends on: - clear interpretation of model's parameters, - possibility of a simple estimation of the model's parameters, - the level of accuracy that the model describes the effect's development in time. It should be noticed that building a "good" model describing the given effect on the base of data from the past not always can be proper in future. To enlarge forecast certainty (especially for short time series) several forecasting methods should be used and their results should be compared.
11
Content available remote Monitoring obiektów po wykonaniu prac zabezpieczających przed katastrofą
PL
W niniejszym artykule przedstawiono problemy monitoringu obiektów, na których prowadzone były prace zabezpieczające przed katastrofą. Na przykładach pokazano, jak duże przemieszczenia pionowe mogą występować w miejscach, gdzie prowadzone były prace.
EN
In the article the problems of structures. monitoring on which preventing works has been done against catastrophe has been presented. On examples was presented how large vertical displacement can exist in places of preventing works.
PL
Przedstawiono, na przykładzie, problemy związane z geodezyjnym monitoringiem obiektów posadowionych na iłach, a będących w stanie awarii. Prace zabezpieczające zostały wykonane nie w pełni skutecznie, a powodem mogło być niewłaściwe rozpoznanie przyczyn, wynikające ze zbyt ograniczonego zakresu prac geodezyjnych.
EN
Some problems of the geodetic monitoring of objects founded on expansive clays in break down state were presented. Protecting works have not been done effectively and the reason of it could be inappropriate recognition of causes resulting from too limited range of geodetic works.
PL
Przedstawiono wyniki pomiarów przemieszczeń pionowych i poziomych płaszcza silosu o obwodzie ponad 150 m, przeznaczonego do okresowego przechowywania materiałów sypkich. Przeanalizowano przemieszczenia w zależności od zmiennego obciążenia podczas eksploatacji.
EN
The article presents results of measurements of silo overcoat's vertical and horizontal displacements. The silo has circuit over 150 m, and it's used for periodic storages of friable materials. The displacements have been analysed depend on variables loads.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono wybrane zagadnienia związane z zastosowaniem systemu UNIGRAPHICS do projektowania powierzchni bryły płatowca oraz modelowania bryłowego zespołów i podzespołów. Przedstawiono sposób opisu brył, wykorzystanie modułu złożeń oraz zasady modyfikacji. Opisano także możliwość wykorzystania wygenerowanej geometrii przez inne programy obliczeniowe.
EN
This paper presents a design procedure undertaken during development of unmanned aerial vehicles PW-103 & PW-114 at Warsaw University of Technology using UNIGRAPHICS by the research team headed by Prof. Zdobyslaw Goraj within the V FR of European Union in the CAPECON programme. UNIGRAPHICS enables the modeling of separate subsystems and a simple verification if these subsystems fit one the other when integrated. Output data is compatible with an input data needed for an advanced aerodynamic software, for example with the VSAERO input data.
PL
Opracowanie przedstawia metody projektowania i obliczania numerycznego wykorzystane podczas konstruowania struktury nośnej samolotów bezzałogowych PW-103 MALE i PW-114 HALE opracowanych przez zespół kierowany przez prof. dr hab. inż. Zdobysława Goraja z Wydziału MEiL Politechniki Warszawskiej.
EN
This paper presents a design effort undertaken during development of a load structure of unmanned aerial vehicles PW-103 & PW-114 at Warsaw University of Technology by the research team headed by Prof. Zdobyslaw Goraj within the V FR of European Union in the CAPECON Project - No GRD1-2001-4016.
EN
This paper describes a design process of HALE PW-114 sensor-craft, developed for high altitude (20 km) long endurance (40 h) surveillance missions. Designed as a blended wing (BW) configuration, to be made of metal and composite materials. Wing control surfaces provide longitudinal balance. Fin in the rear fuselage section together with wingtips provide directional stability. Airplane is equipped with retractable landing gear with controlled front leg that allows operations from conventional airfields. According to the initial requirements it is twin engine configuration, typical payload consists of electro-optical/infra-red FLIR, big SAR (synthetic aperture radar) and SATCOM antenna required for the longest range. Tailless architecture was based on both Horten and Northrop design experience. Global Hawk was considered as a reference point - it was assumed that BW design has to possess efficiency, relative payload and other characteristics at least the same or even better than that of Global Hawk. FLIR, SAR and SATCOM containers were optimised for best visibility. All payload systems are put into separate modular containers of easy access and quickly to exchange, so this architecture can be consider as a "modular". An optimisation process started immediately when the so-called "zero configuration", called PW-l11 was ready. It was designed in the canard configuration. A canard was abandoned in HALE PW-113. Instead, new, larger outer wing was designed with smaller taper ratio. New configuration analysis revealed satisfactory longitudinal stability. Calculations suggested better lateral qualities for negative dihedral. These modifications, leading to aerodynamic improvement, gave HALE PW-114 as a result. The design process was an interdisciplinary approach, and included a selection of thick laminar wing section, aerodynamic optimisation of swept wing, stability analysis, weight balance, structural and flutter analysis, many on-board redundant systems, reliability and maintability analysis, safety improvement, cost and performance optimisation. Presented paper focuses mainly on aerodynamics, wing design, longitudinal control and safety issues. This activity is supported by European Union within V FR, in the area Aeronautics and Space.
PL
W geodezji inżynieryjnej wiele miejsca zajmują pomiary przemieszczeń i odkształceń obiektów. Dzięki procedurom umożliwiającym wizualizację informacji w układach 2D i 3D istnieje możliwość rozszerzenia interpretacji wyników tych badań. Przedstawiono przykłady wizualizacji deformacji z wykorzystaniem programu STATISTICA.
EN
In engineering survey much atention is paid to area structure deformation and displacement measurements. Thanks to procedures which enable information visualization in 2D and 3D there is a possobility to extend the interpretation of these measurement results. Examples of deformation visualization have been presented with the use of STATISTICA program.
PL
W geodezji inżynieryjnej wiele miejsca zajmuje wyznaczanie zniekształceń, przemieszczen i odchyłek. Dzieki wizualizacji informacji w układach 2D i 3D istnieje możliwość rozszerzenia interpretacji wyników tych badań. W artykule zaprezentowano przykłady wizualizacji zniekształceń oraz odchyłek za pomocą programu STATISTICA.
EN
In engineering survey much attention is paid to distortion of area, diplacement and deviation determinations. Due to procedures which enable 2D and 3D visualisation of information there is a possibility to extend the interpretation of these measurement results. Examples of deformation of visualisation described in this article were presented with the use of the STATISTICA program.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono problemy związane z identyfikacją modelu przemieszczeń punktów kontrolowanych. Zwrócono uwagę na relacje pomiędzy kryteriami dokładności dopasowania modelu do zbioru danych empirycznych a zgodnością wyaproksymowanej krzywej ze zbiorem danych wyjściowych. Przedstawiono przykłady aproksymacji za pomocą różnych typów funkcji.
EN
The problems of check points displacement model is presented in this paper. The relation between accuracy fitting model of empirical data file and compatibility of approximate curve taken from input data has been notice. The approximation examples using several types of function have been presented.
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