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EN
The increase in population and industrialization leads to an increase in the solid waste year by year. The limited availability, increasing cost and adverse effect of climate change on fossil fuel leads to encouraging the research in the field of finding alternatives for energy sources. The organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) can be utilized as a bio-energy source, which reduces the environmental impact and the requirement of landfill areas to dispose of municipal solid waste. Anaerobic digestion is the widely used sustainable approach to treat OFMSW. In recent years, the generation of methane from municipal solid waste has received increasing attention in research. This paper reviews literature published in recent years considering various characteristics of input feedstock parameters like pH, total solids, volatile solids, and water content which affect the digestion quality of the OFMSW and increase the production of methane. A regression model is developed to identify the relationship between methane production and various feedstock parameters. When the chemical compositions of feedstock were used as independent variables, the percentage variation accounted for by the model is low (r2 = 0.63) and also the important observation from the analysis is that the pH of the feedstock influences majorly methane production.
EN
Measuring the blast-induced ground vibration at blasting sites is very important, to plan and avoid adverse effects of blasting in terms of the peak particle velocity (PPV). However, the measurement of PPV often requires time, cost, and logistic commitment, which may not be economical for small-scale mining operations. This has prompted the development of numerous regression equations in the literature to estimate PPV from a relatively easier to estimate scaled distance (SD) measurement. With numerous regression equations available in the literature, there is a challenge of how to select the appropriate model for a specific blasting site, more so that rocks behave differently from site to site because of different geological processes that rocks are subjected to. This study develops a method that selects appropriate models for specific blasting sites by comparing the evidence and occurrence probability of different regression models. The appropriate model is the model with the highest evidence and occurrence probability given the available blasting site SD data. The selected model is then integrated with prior knowledge and available blasting SD data in Bayesian framework for probabilistic characterization of PPV. The SD and PPV data at the opencast coal mine, Jharia coalfield in the Dhanbad district of Jharkhand, India, is used to illustrate and validate the approach. The mean and standard deviation of simulated PPV samples from the proposed approach are 12.38 mm/s and 7.36 mm/s, respectively, which are close to the mean of 12.03 mm/s and standard deviation of 9.24 mm/s estimated from the measured PPV at the site. In addition, the probability distribution of the simulated PPV samples is consistent with the probability distribution of the measured PPV at the blasting site.
EN
Landslides are a geological phenomenon that is causing considerable economic and human losses annually in various regions of the world. In some cases, the complex behaviors of some such phenomena cause that single machine learning models fail in modeling them well. To overcome this issue, this paper presents two novel genetic-algorithm (GA)-based ensemble models constructed with the decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Naive Bayes (NB) models based on the bagging and random sub-space (RS) methods for landslide susceptibility assessment and mapping in Ajloun and Jerash governorates in Jordan. Sixteen factors, including topographic, climatic, human, and geological factors were used as possible factors that influence landslide occurrence in the study area. In addition to this, one hundred and ninety two landslide locations were employed for training and testing the models. The GA was used in this study for feature selection based on three models: DT, KNN, and NB. Model performance evaluation based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve indicated that the ensemble models outperform the standalone ones. The values of the AUROC curves in the validation phases for the five models, namely, the GA-based DT, KNN, NB, bagging-based, and RS-based ensemble model, were 0.63, 0.69, 0.63, 0.89, and 0.95, respectively. The results of this study suggest that simple models can be combined using the bagging and RS methods to produce integrated models that have higher accuracy than that of any of the individual simple models.
EN
The present study investigates the prediction accuracy of standalone Reduced Error Pruning Tree model and its integration with Bagging (BA), Dagging (DA), Additive Regression (AR) and Random Committee (RC) for drought forecasting on time scales of 3, 6, 12, 48 months ahead using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), which is among the most common criteria for testing drought prediction, at Kermanshah synoptic station in western Iran. To this end, monthly data obtained from a 31-year period record including rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, and maximum and minimum relative humidtty rates were considered as the required input to predict SPI. In addition, different inputs were combined and constructed to determine the most effective parameter. Finally, the obtained results were validated using visual and quantitative criteria. According to the results, the best input combination comprised both meteorological variable and SPI along with lag time. Although hybrid models enhanced the results of standalone models, the accuracy of the best performing models could vary on different SPI time scales. Overall, BA, DA and RC models were much more effective than AR models. Moreover, RMSE value increased from SPI (3) to SPI (48), indicating that performance modeling would become much more challenging and complex on higher time scales. Finally, the performance of the newly developed models was compared with that of conventional and most commonly used Support Vector Machine and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models, regarded as the benchmark. The results revealed that all the newly developed models were characterized by higher prediction power than ANFIS and ANN.
EN
Aluminum alloys, due to appropriate strength to weight ratio, are widely used in various industries, including automotive engines. This type of structures, due to high-temperature operations, are affected by the creep phenomenon; thus, the limited lifetime is expected for them. Therefore, in designing these types of parts, it is necessary to have sufficient information about the creep behavior and the material strength. One way to improve the properties is to add nanoparticles and fabricate a metal-based nano-composite. In the present research, failure mechanisms and creep properties of piston aluminum alloys were experimentally studied. In experiments, working conditions of combustion engine pistons were simulated. The material was composed of the aluminum matrix, which was reinforced by silicon oxide nanoparticles. The stir-casting method was used to produce the nano-composite by aluminum alloys and 1 wt.% of nanoparticles. The extraordinary model included the relationships between the stress and the temperature on the strain rate and the creep lifetime, as well as various theories such as the regression model. For this purpose, the creep test was performed on the standard sample at different stress levels and a specific temperature of 275 oC. By plotting strain-time and strain rate-time curves, it was found that the creep lifetime decreased by increasing stress levels from 75 MPa to 125 MPa. Moreover, by comparing the creep test results of nanoparticle-reinforced alloys and nanoparticle-free alloys, 40% fall was observed in the reinforced material lifetime under 75 MPa. An increase in the strain rate was also seen under the mentioned stress. It is noteworthy that under 125 MPa, the creep lifetime and the strain rate of the reinforced alloy increased and decreased, respectively, compared to the piston alloy. Finally, by analyzing output data by the Minitab software, the sensitivity of the results to input parameters was investigated.
EN
Based on Projection Pursuit Regression Theory (PPRT), a projection pursuit regression model has been established for forecasting the peak value of blasting vibration velocity. The model is then used to predict the peak value of blasting vibration velocity in a tunnel excavation blasting in Beijing. In order to train and test the model, 15 sets of measured samples from the tunnel project are used as the input data. It is found that predicting results by projection pursuit regression model on the basis of the input data is much more reasonable than that predicted by the traditional Sodaovsk algorithm and modified Sodaovsk formula. The results show that the average predicting error of the projection pursuit regression model is 6.36%, which is closer to the measured values. Thus, the projection pursuit prediction model is a practical and reasonable tool for forecasting the peak value of blasting vibration velocity.
EN
The present paper analyses the factors that influence the number of employees in the banking system. The aim of our research was to determine the influence of bank profitability (ROA), the number of branches and the number of ATM machines per 100.000 adults on evolution of the number of employees in the Central and Est European banking system (11 countries) and compare with Romanian banking system. It was used a model that refers to a multidimensional data collected for a period (Panel Data Regression) for eleven countries analyzed. For the analysis of the Romanian indicators, the multiple linear regression model was used. The analysis shows that both the Romanian model and the model performed on the 11 countries (panel data) registered a positive and direct relationship between number of banking units (BRANCHES) and number of bank employees, and an inverse correlation between number of ATM machines per 100,000 adults and number of bank employees
PL
Niniejszy artykuł analizuje czynniki wpływające na liczbę pracowników w systemie bankowym. Celem naszych badań było określenie wpływu rentowności banków (ROA), liczby oddziałów i liczby bankomatów na 100 000 osób dorosłych na ewolucję liczby pracowników w centralnym i estońskim systemie bankowym (11 krajów) oraz porównanie z rumuńskim systemem bankowym. Zastosowano model odnoszący się do danych wielowymiarowych zebranych dla okresu (regresja danych panelowych) dla jedenastu analizowanych krajów. Do analizy wskaźników rumuńskich zastosowano model regresji wielokrotnej liniowej. Analiza pokazuje, że zarówno model rumuński, jak i model wykonany w 11 krajach (dane panelowe), zarejestrowały dodatni i bezpośredni związek między liczbą jednostek bankowych (ODDZIAŁY) a liczbą pracowników banków, a także odwrotną korelację między liczbą bankomatów na 100 000 osób dorosłych i liczba pracowników banków.
EN
AA7075 is an aluminum alloy which is almost as strong as steel, yet it weighs just one third as much. Unfortunately its use has been limited, due to the fact that pieces of it could not be securely welded together by the traditional welding process. Friction Stir Welding (FSW) process overcomes the limitations of conventional welding process. In our present work we have used Artificial Neural Network which is Artificial Intelligence based technique used for prediction purpose. The main objective of our present work is to compare the predicted results of the Ultimate Tensile Strength (UTS) of Friction Stir welded similar joints through Regression modeling and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modeling. It was observed that the linear regression algorithm is able to make more accurate predictions compared to neural network algorithm for small dataset.
EN
This paper presents a proposal of a model error mitigation technique based on the error distribution analysis of the original model and creatng the additional model that tempers the error impact in particular domain areas identified as the most sensitive. both models are then combined into single ensemble model. The idea is demonstrated on the trivial two-dimensional linear regression model.
PL
Celem artykułu było opracowanie modelu prognozowania popytu na usługi transportowe operatora intermodalnego. Na podstawie udostępnionych danych, dotyczących liczby eksportowanych kontenerów, przedstawiono proces opisania zjawiska na podstawie jego przeszłych obserwacji, a także jego ewolucji w przyszłości. Zaproponowano dwa modele: regresji oraz ARIMA. Dla każdego z nich dokonano predykcji przyszłych obserwacji. Otrzymane wartości prognoz porównano i na tej podstawie wybrano model opisujący lepiej badane zjawisko, tzn. dający mniejszy błąd prognozy.
EN
In the article it was presented a model of demand forecast for intermodal operator transport services. Based on the shared data on the number of exported containers is presented the process of describing the observable occurrence on its past observations, as well as its evolution in the future. Two models were proposed: Regression and ARIMA. For each of them, was made a prediction of future observations. The received values for the predictions were compared and a model describing a better tested observable occurrence was chosen, i.e. that gives a smaller forecast error.
EN
Erosion is a major phenomenon that causes damage not only to soil and agriculture, but also to the quality of the water amounting to tonnes of matter annually transported on the earth's surface. This fact has attracted the interest of researchers to understand its mechanism and explain its causes and consequences. This work is a comparative study of water erosion in the two semi-arid catchments of Wadi Soultez and Wadi Reboa; located in the North-East of Algeria. The approach adopted for the quantification of sediment transport consists on researching the best regressive model to represent the statistical relation between the sediment yield and the measured water discharge at different scales: annual, seasonal and monthly. The available data cover 27 years from 1985–2012. The results show that the power model has given the best correlation coefficient. Results have indicated that Wadi Reboa transported an average of 14.66 hm3 of water and 0.25 million tonnes of sediments annually. While Wadi Soultez has transported 4.2 hm3 of water and 0.11 million tonnes of sediments annually. At a seasonal scale, sediment amounts have showed significant water erosion in autumn with around 44% and secondarily in the spring with 29% in Wadi Soultez. Unlike Wadi Reboa, sediment transport represents 32% and 46% in autumn and spring respectively. Based on the obtained sediment amounts; it is found that the physical factors: such as steep reliefs, vulnerable lithological nature of rocks and poor vegetal cover, have significantly contributed in accelerating soil erosion.
PL
Erozja jest głównym czynnikiem, który nie tylko przynosi szkody w rolnictwie (ubytki gleb), ale także obniża jakość wód powierzchniowych wskutek transportu wielkiej ilości materii niesionych rocznie w skali całego świata. Zjawisko to przykuwało uwagę badaczy, którzy pragnęli poznać mechanizm erozji oraz jej przyczyny i skutki. Przedstawiona praca jest porównawczym studium erozji wodnej półpustynnych zlewni dwóch epizodycznych rzek – Soultez i Reboa w północnowschodniej Algierii. Podejście do ilościowego ujęcia transportu osadów polegało na znalezieniu najlepszego modelu regresji między transportem osadu a mierzonym odpływem wody w skali rocznej, sezonowej i miesięcznej. Dostępne dane obejmują 27 lat – od 1985 do 2012. Najlepszy współczynnik korelacji uzyskano, stosując model potęgowy. Wyniki wskazują, że Reboa transportowała średnio 14,66 hm3 wody i 0,25 mln t osadu rocznie, podczas gdy transport rzeki Soultez wynosił 4,2 hm3 wody i 0,11 mln t osadu rocznie. W ciągu roku największe ilości osadu rzeka Soultez transportowała jesienią (44%) i wiosną (29%), natomiast największy transport osadu w rzece Reboa odnotowano wiosną (46%), a mniejszy jesienią (32%). Na podstawie uzyskanych danych o transporcie osadów stwierdzono, że czynniki fizyczne, takie jak głęboka rzeźba terenu, litologiczny charakter skał podatnych na erozję i uboga pokrywa roślinna przyczyniają się znacząco do zwiększonej erozji gleb.
EN
This article presents a method of multilevel hierarchical analysis for managing transportation systems – Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). The task of multilevel planning it is essential to connect various links of the system. To make decisions a model of hierarchical structure has been applied as quite frequently actions in one point of the system affect results and actions taken in its other constituent. The article presents a method of estimation of the system parameters for the task of prediction. In the article the author is trying to prove that to select appropriate parameters to the model a weak correlation of independent features at simultaneous high correlation of these features with a dependent variable is necessary. All parameters necessary to solve decision problems must be random. A proposed model represents a compromise between estimation of the model in each group of routes separately and for all units of observations without taking into consideration grouping of routes.
13
Content available Nonlinear Regression Model for Ride on Railway
EN
The portable diagnosis system – SPD – evaluates the safety and ride quality aspects of the railway vehicles and the technical condition of the rail-vehicle interface. The objective of this article is to estimate the nonlinear regression model associated with the ride quality or motion behavior, by applying fuzzy clustering algorithms to the geometric data obtained from the technical condition of the railway-vehicle interface and measuring quasi-static lateral acceleration y*qst in different vehicles. The performance will be evaluated by comparing the measured acceleration y*qst with the acceleration calculated in our model y*qstM for 15 different vehicles. The obtained results will be then compared with the results of the multiple linear regression model used previously for the same purpose.
PL
Przenośny system diagnostyczny – SPD ocenia aspekty bezpieczeństwa i jakości biegu pojazdów kolejowych oraz stanu technicznego pojazdu kolejowego. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest oszacowanie nieliniowego modelu regresji związanego z zachowaniem jakości jazdy, przez zastosowanie rozmytego algorytmu klastrowania danych geometrycznych stanu technicznego pojazdu kolejowego i pomiary quasi-statyczne przyspieszeń poprzecznych pojazdów szynowych. Będzie to ocena porównawcza zmierzonego realnego przyspieszenia z przyspieszeniem obliczonym skonfigurowanego modelu dla 15 różnych pojazdów. Uzyskane wyniki będą porównane z wynikami modelu liniowej regresji wielokryterialnej, które były dotychczas w tym celu stosowane.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono model symulacyjny funkcjonowania parkingu wykorzystujący zorientowane obiektowo podeście. W zaproponowanym modelu uwzględniono stochastyczny charakter popytu na usługi parkowania w mieście. W artykule omówiono wyniki symulacji funkcjonowania parkingu oraz przedstawiono dyskusję praktycznych rezultatów. Przedstawiono również model regresji określający optymalną pojemność parkingu otrzymany na podstawie wyników z modelu symulacyjnego.
EN
Paper presents a simulation model of city parking functioning based on object-oriented approach. The proposed model considers stochastic nature of demand on parking services in cities. The results of parking functioning simulations are shown and the appropriate practical implications are discussed. On the base of simulation results the regression model for estimation of the parking optimal capacity has been obtained.
15
PL
W artykule poddano analizie dwuczynnikowy matematyczny model regresyjny. Opisano sposób badania istotności zmiennych niezależnych na wartość napięcia mierzonego na zaciskach obciążonego akumulatora. Przedstawiono sposób postępowania podczas planowania doświadczenia umożliwiającego wyznaczenie współczynników modelu regresyjnego. Podjęto próbę jego weryfikacji wykorzystując wyznaczony model regresji. Wykazano, że odpowiednio zaplanowany eksperyment pozwala na znaczne ograniczenie czasu pracy niezbędnego do przeprowadzenia badań prowadzących do wyznaczenia współczynników modelu liniowego opisującego związki między zmiennymi, głównie poprzez ograniczenie do minimum liczby niezbędnych pomiarów (doświadczeń). Wykazano także, że mimo ograniczonej liczby doświadczeń zachowana jest liniowa struktura wyznaczonego modelu.
XX
There is presented the analysis of the two-factor mathematical regression model. The method of testing the significance of the independent variables on the voltage measures at the terminals of the battery load is described. There is shown the procedure of expertise planning to appointment of the regression model coefficients. An attempt of model verification was made using the designation regression model. It is shown that an appropriately planned experiment allows a significant reduction in working time necessary to performing the research leading to determine coefficients of the linear model describing the relationships between variables, mainly by minimizing the number of necessary measurements (experience). It was also shown that despite a limited number of experiments is preserved the linear structure of the designated model.
EN
The basis for obtaining high performance in cattle breeding is correct feeding. Production of a wholesome ration is labour consuming and expensive. Thus, work related to searching for alternative methods of production of wholesome feed is carried out. Synthesis of low value raw material, as a result of which high protein content feed is produced, is one of the methods. A fermentation process takes place in conditions, which cannot be ensured by presently used machines and aggregates. A fermentor, which enables obtaining feed with high content of protein from low value raw material at minimum expenditures, was developed. One of the conditions of correct course of synthesis is ensuring appropriate temperature of feed, where micro-organism develop. The objective of the paper is to determine optimal values of factors which affect energy consumption during feed heating. The result was to obtain the regression model which is characteristic for unit changes of energy consumption during feed heating, with the use of which, an optimal angle of embracing the container with a heating belt (159°) and the level of filling the container with feed (100%) were determined. Minimal value of optimization criterion at such values of indexes is 5.14 kJ·(kg·°C)-1.
PL
Podstawą uzyskania wysokiej wydajności w chowie bydła jest prawidłowe żywienie. Wytworzenie racji pełnowartościowej jest pracochłonne i kosztowne, dlatego prowadzone są prace związane z poszukiwaniem alternatywnych sposobów produkcji wysokowartościowej paszy. Jednym ze sposobów jest synteza surowca małowartościowego, w wyniku której powstaje pasza o wysokiej zawartości białka. Proces fermentacji przebiega w warunkach, których uzyskanie nie są w stanie zapewnić obecnie stosowane maszyny i agregaty. Opracowano fermentator, który pozwala na uzyskanie z surowca małowartościowego paszę o wysokiej zawartości białka przy minimalnych nakładach. Jednym z warunków poprawnego przebiegu syntezy jest zapewnienie odpowiedniej temperatury pożywki, w której rozwijają się drobnoustroje. Celem pracy jest określenie optymalnych wartości czynników wpływających na zużycie energii podczas nagrzewania pożywki. Wynikiem było otrzymanie modelu regresji charakteryzującego zmiany jednostkowego zużycia energii w trakcie nagrzewania pożywki, za pomocą którego wyznaczone zostały optymalny kąt objęcia pojemnika pasem grzewczym (159°) i poziom wypełnienia pojemnika pożywką (100%). Minimalna wartość kryterium optymalizacji przy takich wartościach wskaźników wynosi 5.14 kJ·(kg·°C)-1.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono dwuwymiarowe modele regresji wyjaśniające związki między napięciem oraz grupami zmiennych niezależnych: temperatury i natężenia prądu oraz stopnia naładowania i natężenia prądu dla akumulatorów o pojemnościach 50 Ah, 54 Ah, 110 Ah, 170 Ah. Pierwsza część zawiera analizę modeli dla zależności napięcia od temperatury i natężenia prądu, druga natomiast zależność napięcia od stopnia naładowania i natężenia prądu. Przedstawiono ilościowy wpływ poszczególnych zmiennych niezależnych na wartość napięcia akumulatora kwasowego.
EN
The article describes the two-dimensional regression models explaining the relationship between voltage and groups of independent variables: temperature and current, and state of charge and current for batteries with a capacity of 50 Ah, 54 Ah, 110 Ah, 170 Ah. The first part contains an analysis of models for the voltage dependence of the temperature and current, and the second – voltage to the state of charge and current. There is shown the quantitative effect of each independent variable on the value of the acid battery voltage.
EN
The main objective of this article is to investigate banking business and analyze factors affecting financial stability of economies and changes in these factors over time using regression model with selected statistical indicators in macroeconomic environment with a focus on Slovakia as member of the Euro area. The method of empirical sector and trend analysis, regression analysis and economic modelling are used. The relationships between the dependence of the banking business profitability and macroeconomic growth have been surveyed and quantified using regression model spanning a period of ten years (2001-2010). Multiple regression model (Mod1) accurately reflected the real development of the banking business sector in Slovakia. Since these sector variables are not dependent on the Slovak historical context, the model can be readily applied to other central European economies to improve the profitability and stability of financial enterprises against crises. There are found selected market factors affecting banking business that informed the analysis, such as effective liquidity management, quality of balance sheets assets, efficient management of interest policy, and increasing of profitability rate from long-term aspect.
PL
Głównym celem artykułu jest zbadanie działalności bankowej i analizy czynników wpływających na stabilność finansową gospodarek i zmiany tych czynników w czasie, przy użyciu modelu regresji z wybranych wskaźników statystycznych w otoczeniu makroekonomicznym, z naciskiem na Słowację jako członka strefy euro. Zastosowano metodę empirycznego sektora, analizę trendów, analizę regresji i modelowania ekonomicznego. Relacje między zależnością rentowności biznesu bankowego i wzrostu makroekonomicznego zostały przebadane i określone ilościowo za pomocą modelu regresji obejmującego okres dziesięciu lat (2001-2010) . Modelu regresji wielokrotnej (Mod1) dokładnie odzwierciedla rzeczywisty rozwój sektora usług bankowych na Słowacji. Ponieważ te zmienne sektora nie są zależne od kontekstu historycznego Słowacji, model można łatwo zastosować do innych gospodarek Europy Środkowej w celu poprawy rentowności i stabilności przedsiębiorstw finansowych przed kryzysami. Znaleziono wybrane czynniki rynkowe wpływające na działalności bankową, które to informowały analizę o takich czynnikach jak efektywne zarządzanie płynnością, jakość aktywów, bilanse, skuteczne zarządzanie polityką odsetek i zwiększenie wskaźnika rentowności w aspekcie długoterminowym.
EN
The article presents the regression model of functional dependency on impact force from height of falling and weight of ram for selected conveyor belt. First part of article tests statistical significance of regression model and model's parameters and deals with analysis of random error. The next part of the article deals with identification of outlying and influential data.
PL
Artykuł omawia model regresji zależności funkcyjnej siły uderzenia dla wybranej taśmy przenośnikowej od wysokości spadku bijaka i jego ciężaru. W pierwszej jego części przetestowano statystyczne znaczenie modelu regresji i parametry modelu oraz przeprowadzono analizę błędu przypadkowego. W drugiej części artykułu omówiono identyfikację danych podstawowych i pobocznych.
EN
This paper presents new complex method of numerical optimization of me- chanical systems. Selected methods of optimization haś been characterized. Presented a new approach of application of multiple regression and logical decision trees in investi- gations of importance rank of parameters.
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