Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

• Autorzy: Okafor G. C. , Ogbu K. N.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/jwld-2018-0047

Warianty tytułu

PL

Ocena wpływu zmian klimatycznych na dostępność wody w basenie rzeki Kaduna, Nigeria

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Changes in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall, temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann–Kendall trend test. Sen’s estimator values stood in agreement with Mann–Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized. With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.

PL

Zmiany w prawidłowościach odpływu spowodowały poważne ograniczenia w dostępności wody, problemy ekologiczne w rolnictwie oraz zmiany warunków życia ludzi w Nigerii. Zrozumienie długoterminowej zmienności (w poszczególnych latach i dziesięcioleciach) dostępności wody w basenie rzeki jest ogromnie ważne w zarządzaniu zasobami wodnymi i adaptacji do zmian klimatycznych. Zmiany klimatu w północnej Nigerii mogą doprowadzić do zmian cyklu hydrologicznego i dostępności wody. Ponadto, związki między zmianami klimatu a zmiennym odpływem wody są dla tego obszaru słabo udokumentowane. Z tego powodu w przedstawionych badaniach analizowano czasowe zmiany opadu, temperatury i odpływu wody z basenu rzeki Kaduna. Stosując odpowiednie narzędzia statystyczne i badania ankietowe, badano trendy przepływu wody i ich związki ze wskaźnikami klimatycznymi, aby udokumentować ich rosnący wpływ na dostępność wody i warunki życia mieszkańców w dolnym biegu rzeki. Analiza wykazała zmienność opadów z wyraźnymi okresami suchymi i wilgotnymi. W przeciwieństwie do opadów temperatura cechowała się statystycznie istotnym trendem rosnącym w skali pór roku i lat. Odpływ wykazywał istotną statystycznie rosnącą tendencję tylko w skali roku, co wykazano testem trendu Manna–Kendalla. Wartości estymatora Sena były zgodne z wartościami uzyskanymi z zastosowaniem testu Manna–Kendalla dla wszystkich zmiennych. Wartości tau Kendalla i korelacje cząstkowe wykazały wpływ zmian klimatu na odpływ wody. Na podstawie badań ankietowych wykazano pewne skutki hydrologiczne i aktualne warunki stresu wodnego dla mieszkańców zamieszkujących tereny w dolnym biegu rzeki. Wobec rosnącego ryzyka zmian klimatycznych i zapotrzebowania na wodę zaleca się rozwijanie środków przystosowawczych do sezonowego reżimu dostępności wody i przyszłe prace poświęcone modelowaniu zmiennych cech hydrologicznych całego basenu.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change; Mann–Kendall test; partial correlation; streamflow; water availability

PL

dostępność wody; korelacje cząstkowe; przepływ wody; test Manna-Kendalla; zmiany klimatyczne

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: no. 38
• Strony: 105--114
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 34 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Okafor G. C.

• Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana

autor

Ogbu K. N.

• Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Faculty of Engineering, PMB 5025, Awka, Anambra State, Nigeria

Bibliografia

• ABDUL AZIZ O.I., BURN D.H. 2006. Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin. Journal of Hydrology. Vol. 319 (1–4) p. 282–294. DOI 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.039.
• ADAKAYI P.E. 2012. An assessment of the rainfall and temperature variations in parts of Northern Nigeria. Jos. University of Jos. PhD Thesis pp. 198.
• ADELALU G.T. 2012. Climate variability and River Benue Discharge in Jimeta, Yola Area, Nigeria. Hydrology for Disaster Management (Special Publication of the Nigerian Association of Hydrological Sciences) p. 375–382.
• CERVIGNI R., VALENTINI R., SANTINI M. (eds) 2013. Toward climate-resilient development in Nigeria. Washington, D.C. World Bank Publications. ISBN 978-0-8213-9923-1 pp. 212. DOI 10.1596/978-0-8213-9923-1.
• CHEN H., GUO S., XU C. SINGH V.P. 2007. Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin. Journal of Hydrology. Vol. 344. Iss. 3–4 p. 171–184. DOI 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.06.034
• DIKE B.U., NWACHUKWU B.A. 2003. Analysis of Nigerian hydrometeorological data. Nigerian Journal of Technology. Vol. 22. Iss. 1 p. 29–38.
• EAKIN H., LUERS A.L. 2006. Assessing the vulnerability of social environmental systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. Vol. 31 p. 365–394 DOI 10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144352.
• EKPOH I.J., NSA E. 2011. Extreme climatic variability in North-Western Nigeria: An analysis of rainfall trends and patterns. Journal of Geography and Geology. Vol. 3. Iss. 1 p. 51–62. DOI 10.5539/jgg.v3n1p51.
• EZE J.N. 2006. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and extremes: A case study of flooding in Niger State, Nigeria. MSc. Thesis. Johannesburg, South Africa. University of the Witwa-tersrand.
• FAN Y., CHEN Y., LI W., WANG H., LI X. 2011. Impacts of temperature and precipitation on runoff in the Tarim River during the past 50 years. Journal of Arid Land. Vol. 3. Iss. 3 p. 220–230. DOI 10.3724/SP.J.1227.2011.00220
• GARBA H., IBRAHIM A., AHMED S., FAUSTINUS B. 2013. Hydrological modeling of the impact of climate change on a tropical perennial river flooding. Research Inventy: International Journal of Engineering and Science. Vol. 3. Iss. 6 p. 30–35.
• HARUNA G., ABUBAKAR I., RABIA L. B., SAMINU A., ABDULLAHI I., FAUSTINUS B. 2013. Open Journal of Modern Hydrology. Vol. 3 p. 115–121. DOI 10.4236/ojmh.2013.33015.
• HU Y. 2014. Water tower of the Yellow River in a changing climate: Toward an integrated assessment [online]. Delft, The Netherlands. UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education. PhD Thesis. ISBN 978-1-138-02714-5. pp. 112. [Access 12.10.2017]. Available at: http://repository.tudelft.nl/assets/uuid:f53620b8-3ce5-4f4b-9b48-a27d8c0496d5/2014_UNESCOIHE_PHD_Thesis_YURONG_HU.pdf
• IBBI S., TIMOTHY N. 2012. Water security and good governance in Niger State of Nigeria: Challenge for sustainable development. Transnational Journal of Science and Technology. Vol. 2. Iss. 8 p. 68–78.
• IDOWU A.A., AYOOLA S.O., OPELE A.I., IKENWEIWE N.B. 2011. Impact of climate change in Nigeria. Iranica Journal of Energy & Environment. Vol. 2. Iss. 2 p. 145–152.
• IFABIYI I.P. 2013. A rank-reduced analysis of runoff components and their response patterns to basin parameters in the northern basement complex, Nigeria. Civil and Environmental Research. Vol. 3. Iss. 7 p. 11–19.
• IMAN R.L., HELTON J.C. 1988. An investigation of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques for computer models. Risk Analysis. Vol. 8. Iss. 1 p. 71–90. DOI 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1988.tb01155.x
• KENDALL M.G. 1975. Rank correlation methods. 4th ed. Charles Griffin, London, U.K. ISBN 0852641990 pp. 202.
• KUNDU S., KHARE D., MONDAL A. 2016. Future changes in rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration in the central India by Least Square Support Vector Machine. Geoscience Frontiers. Vol. 8. Iss. 3 p. 1–14. DOI 10.1016/j.gsf.2016.06.002.
• KUNDZEWICZ Z.W., MATA L.J., ARNELL N.W., DÖLL P., JIMENEZ B., OKI T., SHIKLOMANOV I. 2008. The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management resources and their management. Hydrological Sciences Journal. Vol. 53. Iss. 1 p. 3–10. DOI 10.1623/hysj.53.1.3.
• MANN H.B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Mann Source: Econometrica. Vol. 13. Iss. 3 p. 245–259. DOI 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004.
• NAIMAN R.J., DUDGEON D. 2011. Global alteration of freshwaters : influences on human and environmental well-being. Ecological Research. Vol. 26. Iss. 5 p. 865–873. DOI 10.1007/s11284-010-0693-3.
• NENWIINI S., KABANDA T.A. 2013. Trends and variability assessment of rainfall in Vhembe South Africa [online]. Journal of Human Ecolology. Vol. 42. Iss. 2 p. 171–176. [Access 12.10.2017]. Available at: http://www.krepublishers.com/02-Journals/JHE/JHE-42-0-000-13-Web/JHE-42-2-000-13-Abst-PDF/JHE-42-2-171-13-2366-Kabanda-T-A/JHE-42-2-171-13-2366-Kabanda-T-A-Tx%5B9%5D.pmd.pdf
• NGORAN S. D., DOGAH K. E., XUE X. 2015. Assessing the Impacts of climate change on water resources: The Sub-Saharan Africa perspective. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development. Vol. 6. Iss. 1 p. 185–194.
• OJO O., GBUYIRO S. O., OKOLOYE C.U. 2004. Implications of climatic variability and climate change for water resources availability and management in West Africa. GeoJournal. Vol. 61. Iss. 2 p. 111–119. DOI 10.1007/s10708-004-2863-8
• OKAFOR G.C., JIMOH O.D., LARBI K.I. 2017. Detecting changes in hydro-climatic variables during the last four decades (1975–2014) on downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences. Vol. 7. Iss. 2 p. 161–175. DOI 10.4236/acs.2017.72012.
• OLADIPO E. 2008. Climate change and sustainable livelihoods – the greening options. Paper presented at the First National Summit on the Environment, Abuja Nigeria.
• OYEBANDE L., ODUNUGA S. 2010. Climate change impact on water resources at the transboundary level in West Africa: The cases of the Senegal, Niger and Volta Basins. The Open Hydrology Journal. Vol. 9 p. 163–172. DOI 10.2174/1874378101004010163.
• ROUDIER P., DUCHARNE A., FEYEN L. 2014. Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: A review. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, European Geosciences Union. Vol. 18. Iss. 7 p. 2789–2801. DOI 10.5194/hess-18-2789-2014
• SCHEWE J., HEINKE J., GERTEN D., HADDELAND I., ARNELL N.W., CLARK D.B., KABAT P. 2014. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Vol. 111. No. 9 p. 3245-3250. DOI 10.1073/pnas.1222460110.
• SULEIMAN Y. M., IFABIYI I. 2014. The role of rainfall variability in reservoir storage management at Shiroro. International Journal of Science and Technology Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. Vol. 7. Iss. 1 p. 55–63.
• TRENBERTH K.E. 2008. The impact of climate change and variability on heavy precipitation, floods and droughts. Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences. Vol. 2(11) p. 1–17.
• WOBUS C., PRUCHA R., ALBERT D., WOLL C., LOINAZ M., JONES R. 2015. Hydrologic alterations from climate change inform assessment of ecological risk to pacific salmon in Bristol Bay, Alaska. PLOS ONE. Vol. 10. Iss. 12 e0147242. DOI 10.1371/journal.pone. 0143905.
• ZUO D., XU Z., ZHAO J., ABBASPOUR K.C., YANG H., ZUO D., YANG H. 2015. Response of runoff to climate change in the Wei River basin, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal. Vol. 60. Iss. 3 p. 508–522. DOI 10.1080/02626667.2014.943668.