Trendy i okresowość zmian temperatury powietrza w Polsce w drugiej połowie XX wieku

• Autorzy: Fortuniak K. , Kożuchowski K. , Żmudzka E.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Trends and periodicity of changes in air temperature in Poland in the second half of 20 th century

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the main patterns of temperature variations in Poland in the second half of the XX-th century. It concerns mainly the answers to 3 questions: 1) at what degree are the averaged values of temperature changed in the period 1951-2000, 2) how are the cyclic components of the observed changes, 3) are there any empirical proofs of the realisation of climate scenarios in which the warming is predicted? The spatially averaged time series of air temperature registered at 51 meteorological stations have been analysed. Several statistical methods have been used both for trends and periodicity identification: analysis of linear regression, the method of rank trend of Mann-Kendall, cumulative deviations, the J. Boryczka method of regression sinusoids, the spectral analysis after Blackmann and Tukey (1958) and singular spectral analysis (SSA) after Vautard (1992). The rise of annual mean temperature in Poland in 50-year period has been estimated as 0.9 centigrade. An increase in temperature intensified significantly after 1980. This warming occurred especially in the spring, in January, February, July and August. The temperature values in spring in 1980. and 1990. were higher then ones estimated in climate scenario (HadCM2 GS) for the middle of XXI-th century. The oscillation of the period of ca 8-year in the annual and December-March monthly temperatures has been found. It explains 31-42 percent of the observed temperature variations. On the other hand - the linear rising trend explains only 9 percent of variation. The climate model HadCM2 GS predicts the rise of annual temperature in Poland in 2050. by 1.4 centigrade from the 1981-2000 mean. However, the coincidence of the simulation with the observed temperature variation in the past is rather weak; differences concern especially the seasonal distribution of temperature changes.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

ocieplenie klimatu; temperatura powietrza; zmienność temperatury

EN

air temperature; climate warming; climate variability

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwa Geofizyczne ; Komitet Geofizyki PAN
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Geofizyczny
• Rocznik: 2001
• Tom: Z. 4
• Strony: 283--303
• Opis fizyczny: tab., wykr., bibliogr. 21 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Fortuniak K.

autor

Kożuchowski K.

autor

Żmudzka E.

• Zakład Meteorologii i Klimatologii UŁ