BazTech - Yadda

1

Seasonality and long-term trends of NDVI values in different land use types in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea basin

Klimavičius Laurynas, Rimkus Egidijus, Stonevičius Edvinas, Mačiulytė Viktorija

Oceanologia

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2023

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Vol. 65 (1)

171--181

EN

This study analyses changes in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in the eastern Baltic region. The main aim of the work is to evaluate changes in growing season indicators (onset, end time, time of maximum greenness and duration) and their relationship with meteorological conditions (air temperature and precipitation) in 1982–2015. NDVI seasonality and long-term trends were analysed for different types of land use: arable land, pastures, wetlands, mixed and coniferous forests. In the southwestern part of the study area, the growing season lasts longest, while in the northeast, the growing season is shorter on average by 10 weeks than in the other parts of the analysed territory. The air temperature in February and March is the most important factor determining the start of the growing season and the air temperature in September and October determines the end date of the growing season. Precipitation has a much smaller effect, especially at the beginning of the growing season. The effect of meteorological conditions on peak greenness is weak and, in most cases, statistically insignificant. At the end of the analysed period (1982–2015), the growing season started earlier and ended later (in both cases the changes were 3–4 weeks) than at the beginning of the study period. All these changes are statistically significant. The duration of the growing season increased by 6–7 weeks.

2

Trends and fluctuations of river ice regimes in the Prypiat Basin, within Ukraine

Gorbachova Liudmyla, Afteniuk Oleksandr, Khrystiuk Borys, Lobodzinskyi Oleksandr

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2023

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Vol. 11, Iss. 1

62--75

EN

Information about the formation, destruction, and duration of river ice regimes is especially important for hydropower, shipping, fisheries, etc. Research into modern trends in river ice regimes and their spatial and temporal fluctuations is essential, especially in a changing climate. This study examines the trends and fluctuations of air temperature and ice regimes based on series of observations in the Prypiat River basin within Ukraine. Air temperature data from 17 meteorological stations and ice data from 29 water gauges were analyzed. A complex analytical approach involving statistical and graphical methods was employed. The Mann-Kendall statistical test, mass curve, residual mass curve, and combined graphs were used in the study. In the Prypiat River basin within Ukraine, observations of mean monthly air temperature, ice occurrence, freeze-up, and their duration are homogeneous (quasi-homogeneous) and stationary (quasi-stationary). The quasi-homogeneous and quasi-stationary characteristics are explained by the presence in the observation series of only increasing and decreasing phases of long-term cyclical fluctuations, which are incomplete. The trends of air temperature and ice regime correspond strongly, indicating the defining role of air temperature in the formation of ice occurrence and freeze-up. Since the end of the 1990s, the warming phase of air temperature in the autumn-winter period determines the appearance of ice and freeze-up later in the year. In March, the warming trend in air temperature, which began after 1988, determines the freezeup, break-up, and disappearance of ice earlier in the year. Thus, the duration of ice and freeze-up on the rivers has decreased.

3

Assessing the impact of climate change on discharge in the Horyn River basin by analyzing precipitation and temperature data

Lobodzinskyi Oleksandr, Vasylenko Yevheniia, Koshkina Olha, Nabyvanets Yurii

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2023

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Vol. 11, Iss. 1

93--106

EN

It is important to investigate the hydrological consequences of current climate change. Hydrological responses to climate warming and wetter conditions include changes in discharge (frequency, amplitude, and volume). This paper describes current climate change and its impact on hydrological flow within the Horyn River basin. Daily air temperature and precipitation data obtained from the 17 meteorological stations located in and nearby the Horyn River basin, in combination with hydrological data (such as daily water discharges obtained from 9 water gauges), were used for the analysis of climate variability and its hydrological consequences. Analyses of meteorological variables and water discharges are crucial for the assessment of long-term changes in the river regime. Thiessen polygons were used to determine the area of influence of assigned specific meteorological stations, which affect the river’s catchments within the Horyn River basin. As a result of the trend analysis, it was observed that discharge within the Horyn River basin decreased over time. These results were congruent with the trends of precipitation data and air temperature data of the stations determined by the Thiessen polygons and basin boundaries. To understand current changes in the daily flow in the basin, changes in air temperature and precipitation for the period 1991-2020 were compared with the period of the climatic norm (1961-1990). A similar analysis was done for daily water discharges. Increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation in the current period led to a significant decrease in discharges in the Horyn River basin, especially during the spring flood period.

4

Analiza przypadków przegrzania mieszkań na ostatnich kondygnacjach budynków w technologii tradycyjnej

Pokorska-Silva Iwona, Nowoświat Artur

Materiały Budowlane

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2023

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nr 11

21--27

PL

Przegrzewanie pomieszczeń ostatniej kondygnacji sprawia, że komfort cieplny nie jest zachowany. W krajach takich jak Polska, gdzie nie używa się powszechnie klimatyzacji, problem ten jest szczególnie widoczny. W celu jego dokładnego zbadania wykonano w okresie letnim pomiary temperatury w pomieszczeniach budynków mieszkalnych wybudowanych w technologii tradycyjnej. Badania te potwierdziły problem przegrzewania tych pomieszczeń, dlatego też analizowano rozkład temperatury w miesiącach letnich w pomieszczeniach poddasza i niższych kondygnacji. Przeprowadzono również pomiar temperatury oraz symulacje numeryczne w budynku testowym. Ponadto wykazano wpływ wskaźnika utrzymania ciepła na średnią, maksymalną i minimalną temperaturę w pomieszczeniach. Za pomocą symulacji w ESP-r pokazano wpływ wskaźnika utrzymania ciepła na rozrzut wyników, gdyż okazuje się, że im większa jest jego wartość, tym rozrzut temperatury w ciągu doby jest mniejszy.

EN

It is commonly known that thermal comfort in the rooms on top floors is interrelated with their overheating. In regions (such as Poland) where air conditioning is not widely used, this problem is particularly evident. In order to thoroughly examine it, temperature measurements were made in the summer period. The measurements were made in the living quarters of buildings constructed in a traditional technology. The tests carried out confirmed that the top-floor rooms were subject to overheating. Therefore, the analysis involved also temperature distribution during the summer months both for attic rooms and rooms on lower floors. Temperature measurement and numerical measurement were also carried out in the test building. Moreover, the impact of the heat retention rate on the average, maximum, and minimum room temperatures was determined. First of all, using the simulation in ESP-r, the impact of heat retention rate on the scatter of results was demonstrated, since it turns out that the higher the value of heat retention rate, the smaller the temperature spread during the day.

5

The Meteorological Conditions of Precipitation Deficits in the Cultivation of Winter Wheat in Central and Eastern Poland

Skowera Barbara, Baranowska Alicja, Węgrzyn Alicja, Bartoszek Krzysztof, Wojkowski Jakub, Ivanišová Eva

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2023

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Vol. 24, nr 9

50--62

EN

The problem of precipitation deficits constitutes an issue that is significant on a global, regional, and local scale, particularly in the aspect of climate warming. The purpose of this research was to determine the amount, frequency and trends of precipitation deficits in the cultivation of winter wheat in central and eastern Poland, over a period of fifty years (1971–2020). This study used the values of average monthly air temperatures, as well as monthly total precipitation, decadal precipitation needs of winter wheat within central and eastern Poland. Based on the performed research, both spatial and temporal differences were observed in the scope of the amount and frequency of precipitation deficits in the cultivation of winter wheat. The lowest risk of precipitation deficits was found in May (from 15% to 32%), which is a critical month in the cultivation of this plant in Poland, while the highest risk of precipitation deficits was observed in June (from 22% to 56%), which is an unfavourable phenomenon, because winter wheat is in the so-called grain filling phase since mid-June. It was also found that there is a statistically significant upward trend of the winter wheat’s precipitation needs in April, June, and July. An increase in the inflow of warm and dry air masses from the southern sectors was one of the factors impacting the amount and frequency of precipitation deficits in the cultivation of wheat. The problem of climate warming that has been increasing in recent years, and – as a consequence – an increase in precipitation deficit during the growing season of plants, demonstrate the need for further research in this scope.

6

Tendencje zmian klimatycznych wskaźników potrzeb nawadniania roślin w Polsce w latach 1991-2020

Żarski Jacek, Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska Renata

Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich

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2023

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nr I/1

88--103

PL

Przeprowadzono ocenę zmienności czterech klimatycznych wskaźników potrzeb nawadniania roślin w I strefie celowości stosowania tego zabiegu w Polsce (temperatura powietrza, opady atmosferyczne, częstość susz atmosferycznych, niedobory opadów). Analiza dotyczyła czterech miejscowości (Szczecin, Poznań, Kalisz, Toruń), wielolecia referencyjnego 1991-2020 oraz fragmentów i całego okresu aktywnego wzrostu roślin (V-VIII). Badania wykazały dość jednoznaczny wzrost potrzeb nawadniania pod względem kryterium klimatycznego. Wynika on przede wszystkim z istotnego wzrostu temperatury powietrza, skutkującego zwiększeniem się potrzeb wodnych roślin. Wykazano tendencję do pogłębiania się niedoborów opadowych w wieloleciu 1991-2020 na Nizinie Szczecińskiej i w Wielkopolsce oraz zidentyfikowano dużą liczbę susz atmosferycznych o zwiększonej intensywności w latach 2015-2020.

EN

An assessment of the variability of four climatic indicators of plant irrigation needs (air temperature, precipitation, frequency of atmospheric droughts, rainfall shortages) in the 1st zone of irrigation application in Poland was carried out. The analysis concerned four localities (Szczecin, Poznań, Kalisz, Toruń) during the reference multiyear period 1991-2020, in the entire period of active plant growth (V-VIII) as well as the parts of it. Results of the analysis have shown a fairly clear increase in irrigation needs in terms of the climatic criterion. It results primarily from a significant increase in air temperature, resulting in an increase in the water needs of plants. For the period 1991-2020 tendency to deepening rainfall shortages in the Szczecin Lowland and in Wielkopolska was demonstrated. The large numbers of atmospheric droughts with higher level of intensity were identified in the second part of the analysed period in the years 2015-2020.

7

Long‑term trends and variability in air temperatures of central Anatolia region, Turkey, for the period 1960–2021

Bayer-Altın Türkan

Acta Geophysica

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2023

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Vol. 71, no. 4

2031--2047

EN

The present paper analyzes long term (1960–2021) of the minimum, maximum, and average temperatures in Central Anatolia Region, corresponding middle part of Turkey, aiming to reveal how strongly the temperatures increase, which is a precondition for sustainable development in this region. For this purpose, temporal trends, variability, and anomalies in temperatures of 27 meteorological stations were detected using Mann–Kendall test (M-K), coefficient of variations, and Gaussian filter, respectively. Results show a statistically significant increasing trend in annual average temperatures at approximately 92% of all stations. This shows that the increasing trend in spring and summer temperatures plays an important role in amplifying the warming trend of annual temperatures. The coefficients of variation in annual average, maximum, and seasonal temperatures increase from west to east. Significant strong increasing trend (at 0.001 level) in winter temperatures was detected only at Seydişehir. While positive anomalies have been observed in the northwestern part of the region since 2007, they have been observed in other parts since 1995–1996. Since the strong increase in summer temperatures in Aksaray, Cihanbeyli, and Seydişehir is also observed in autumn, warm conditions continue until the end of autumn in these settlements. For this reason, four seasons do not prominently occur for all three settlements. Generally, annual maximum and minimum temperatures illustrate statistically significant increasing trends for all stations and 74% of all stations, respectively. According to the M-K test results, climate of the region has warmed on average by 1.44 °C in last 31 years.

8

Temperatura powietrza w Polsce podczas adwekcji z sektora zachodniego

Piotrowski Piotr

Przegląd Geofizyczny

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2022

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Z. 3-4

119--133

PL

Częstość adwekcji mas powietrza z sektora zachodniego waha się na obszarze Polski w granicach od 44,7% w południowo-wschodniej części Polski do 52,4% w południowo-zachodniej części kraju. Cyrkulacja antycyklonalna z sektora zachodniego znacznie częściej obejmuje swym oddziaływaniem cały obszar Polski niż cyrkulacja cyklonalna, szczególnie jesienią i latem. Rozmieszczenie układów barycznych sterujących cyrkulacją cyklonalną i antycyklonalną z sektora zachodniego jest odmienne pod względem lokalizacji i stopnia rozbudowy przestrzennej układów niżowych i wyżowych w poszczególnych porach roku. Układ baryczny sterujący cyrkulacją antycyklonalną jest najbardziej rozbudowany jesienią i latem, natomiast cyrkulacją cyklonalną - zimą. Średnia temperatura powietrza o godz. 12:00 UTC na obszarze Polski podczas cyrkulacji antycyklonalnej jest wyższa we wszystkich miesiącach od średniej wartości temperatury powietrza z całego analizowanego okresu (1959-2021), natomiast w przypadku cyrkulacji cyklonalnej jest wyższa tylko od listopada do marca. Tendencje temperatury powietrza podczas cyrkulacji cyklonalnej i antycyklonalnej z sektora zachodniego we wszystkich porach roku są wzrostowe na całym obszarze Polski. Oscylacja Północnoatlantycka ma największy wpływ na temperaturę powietrza w Polsce o godz. 12:00 UTC w miesiącach zimowych, zarówno podczas cyrkulacji cyklonalnej, jak i antycyklonalnej z sektora zachodniego.

EN

The frequency of advection from west sector ranges from 44.7% in southeastern Poland to 52.4% in southwestern of country and has a significant impact on the conditions. Anticyclonic circulation from west sector much more often covers the entire area of Poland in comparison to cyclonic circulation, especially in autumn and summer. The localization of baric centers controlling the cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation from west sector in in the various seasons is different in terms of location and degree of spatial expansion in. Baric system controlling anticyclonic circulation is most spatially extended in autumn and summer, while during cyclonic circulation - in winter. Monthly mean of air temperature at 12:00 UTC in the Poland area during anticyclonic circulation is higher in all months than mean value over the entire period analyzed (1959-2021), while during cyclonic circulation monthly air temperature is higher only from November to March. The positive trends of air temperature during cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation occur in all seasons in the whole area of Poland. The highest positive trends of air temperature during the predominance of circulation from western sector over the Poland area are visible in spring and autumn during anticyclonic circulation. The North Atlantic Oscillation has the greatest impact on air temperature in Poland during the winter months, both during cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation from west sector.

9

Miejska wyspa ciepła w Łodzi w latach 2015-2018 na tle wcześniejszych badań

Krawczyk Ewelina, Fortuniak Krzysztof, Wilk Szymon

Przegląd Geofizyczny

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2022

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Z. 1-2

3--18

PL

W opracowaniu scharakteryzowano miejską wyspę ciepła (MWC) w Łodzi na podstawie pomiarów wykonywanych w latach 2015–2018 na dwóch stanowiskach: Tramwajowa (stacja miejska) i Łódź-Lublinek (stacja zamiejska). Analizie poddano różnice temperatury między stacją miejską a zamiejską (ΔT) obliczone z 1-godzinnym krokiem czasowym. Wyznaczono średnie wartości ΔT w godzinach dla poszczególnych miesięcy i określono dobową zmienność częstości występowania ΔT z określonych przedziałów temperatury w sezonach. Zbadano częstość występowania maksymalnych dobowych wartości ΔT (między godz. 12.00 dnia bieżącego a 12.00 dnia poprzedniego) i ich przebieg wieloletni. Przeanalizowano zależność MWC od prędkości wiatru i zachmurzenia. Otrzymane wyniki zostały porównane z wcześniejszym opracowaniem dotyczącym lat 1997–1999. W obecnie analizowanym okresie w miesiącach letnich zaobserwowano znacznie silniejsze kontrasty termiczne między centrum Łodzi a obszarami peryferyjnymi, ze średnimi przekraczającymi w nocy 2°C. W stosunku do lat 1997–1999 ponad dwukrotnie wzrosła częstość ΔT > 3°C. Zimą średnie wartości ΔT są nieco niższe niż w poprzednim okresie, wzrosła natomiast liczba przypadków ΔT < 0°C, przy jednoczesnym niewielkim wzroście prawdopodobieństwa pojawienia się ΔT > 3°C. Maksymalna wartość ΔT zanotowana w bieżącym okresie wynosi 7,9°C i jest nieco niższa niż dla lat 1997–1999 (8,7°C). W przeciwieństwie do końca ubiegłego wieku najwyższe zanotowane w sezonach wartości ΔT są do siebie zbliżone, a liczba ΔT > 7°C jest zdecydowanie wyższa. Chociaż przeprowadzone badania nie pozwalają wskazać przyczyn zaobserwowanych tendencji MWC, za najbardziej prawdopodobne należy uznać zmiany ogólnych warunków klimatycznych w regionie oraz zmiany w strukturze i metabolizmie miasta.

EN

The study characterizes the urban heat island (UHI) in Łódź in 2015–2018 on the basis of measurements at two sites: Tramwajowa (urban) and Łódź-Lublinek (rural). The temperature differences between the city and rural sites (ΔT) were calculated with a 1-hour time step. Average values of ΔT in hours for individual months were determined and the daily variability of the frequency of occurrence of ΔT for selected temperature ranges in seasons was determined. The frequency of occurrence of maximum daily ΔT (between noon of the current day and noon of the previous day) and its long-term course were examined. The dependence of UHI on wind speed and cloudiness was analyzed. The obtained results were compared with the previous study concerning the years 1997–1999. In the currently analyzed period much stronger thermal contrasts were observed between the center of Łódź and the peripheral areas in summer, with averages exceeding 2°C at night. In relation to the years 1997–1999, the frequency of ΔT > 3°C has more than doubled. In winter, the average values of ΔT are slightly lower than in the previous period, while the number of cases of ΔT < 0°C has increased, with a slight increase in the probability of the appearance of ΔT > 3°C. The maximum value of ΔT recorded in the current period is 7.9°C and is slightly lower than for the years 1997–1999 (8.7°C). Contrary to the end of the last century, the highest values of ΔT are similar in all seasons, and the number of ΔT > 7°C is much higher. Although the presented research does not allow to identify the causes of the observed UHI trends, the most probable are changes in the climatic conditions in the region and changes in the structure and metabolism of the city.

10

Kompensacja Bjerknesa

Styszyńska Anna, Marsz Andrzej A.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

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2022

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Z. 3-4

99--118

PL

Praca przedstawia związek między transportem oceanicznym ciepła i transportem atmosferycznym ciepła z tropików do Arktyki, znany pod nazwą kompensacji Bjerknesa (1964). W artykule zwraca się uwagę na konsekwencje klimatyczne kompensacji Bjerknesa dla obszarów Europy. Przy wykorzystaniu danych obserwacyjnych przedstawia się słuszność tej hipotezy odnośnie ujemnych korelacji między oceanicznymi i atmosferycznymi strumieniami ciepła oraz dodatnich związków między anomaliami oceanicznego transportu ciepła i intensywnością wiatrów zachodnich w szerokościach umiarkowanych.

EN

The work presents the relationship between ocean heat transport and atmospheric heat transport from the tropics to the Arctic, known as the Bjerknes compensation (1964). Attention is drawn to the climatic consequences of Bjerknes’ compensation for the areas of Europe. Using the observational data, the validity of this hypothesis is presented regarding the negative correlations between oceanic and atmospheric heat fluxes and positive relationships between ocean heat transport anomalies and the intensity of westerly winds in moderate latitudes.

11

Effect of harvest date on structural carbohydrates and lignin content in meadow sward in different pluvio-thermal conditions

Wróbel Barbara, Zielewicz Waldemar, Paszkiewicz-Jasińska Anna, Spychalski Bartosz, Jakubowska Zuzanna

Journal of Water and Land Development

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2022

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no. 55

60--66

EN

The content of structural carbohydrates and lignin are important assessment criteria of the feed value of meadow plants. It is affected by many independent factors, including among others its development stage during the harvest as well as climatic conditions, especially the amount of rainfall. During the years 2014-2016, plant samples were harvested at weekly intervals, respectively five times from late April to late May. The effect of harvest date on cellulose, hemicelluloses and lignin contents was evaluated. The chemical composition of plants was varied, depending not only on harvest date but also on the year of study. Regardless of the course of meteorological conditions in subsequent growing seasons, the increase of cellulose (from 236.5 to 297.9 g∙kg-1 DM), hemicelluloses (from 159.3 to 210.8 g∙kg-1 DM), and lignin (from 31.5 to 43.1 g∙kg-1 DM) in the following dates of harvest were observed. These parameters were also positively correlated with the total rainfall from the begging of vegetation season to the date of plants sampling (R2 = 0.65, 0.12 and 0.44 for cellulose, hemicelluloses and lignin, respectively), and with the average daily air temperature in the moment of harvest (R2 = 0.66, 0.32 and 0.52 for cellulose, hemicelluloses and lignin, respectively). The cellulose and lignin content, regardless of the harvest date, were significantly higher in the first year of the study (2014), when moisture conditions for plant development were optimal.

12

Changes in Climate and Bioclimatic Potential in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine

Pichura Vitalii, Potravka Larisa, Vdovenko Nataliia, Biloshkurenko Oleksandra, Stratichuk Natalia, Baysha Kira

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2022

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Vol. 23, nr 12

189--202

EN

To increase the level of management efficiency in the agricultural sector of the economy, it is necessary to substantiate environmental protection measures for the restoration and rational use of natural resources, to ensure the implementation of the sustainable environmental management principles, considering the spatio-temporal patterns of changes in climate and bioclimatic potential of the territory. Using the methods of multivariate statistics and time series forecasting, regularities of changes in climatic conditions in the Steppe zone of Ukraine for 1945–2019 were established, and a forecast of changes in the bioclimatic potential of the region until 2030 was made. It was established that during the research period the average annual air temperature increased by 3.5 °C. The amount of annual atmospheric precipitation varied within 186–778 mm with a variation level of 27.2%, in the last 20 years it was determined to decrease by 40% – to 500–300 mm. It has been proven that the inertial probability of repeating hot years is estimated at 0.58, and the possibility of repeating wet years at 0.46. As a result of forecasting, it was determined that if the trend of climatic conditions is maintained, there will be a stable trend-cyclic increase in the average annual air temperature by 0.06 °C per year and a decrease in the amount of annual precipitation by 62.0 mm per year. This resulted in an 18.7% increase in solar radiation on the soil surface and a 26.0% decrease in climatic losses on soil formation, which reduced the rate of the natural ability to reproduce soil fertility. In particular, the bioproductivity of plants decreased by 62.0%, and the probability of its further decrease by 20% is predicted. Over the past 20 years, the coefficient of natural humidification has decreased by 66.4%, and it is predicted to decrease by 20%. The obtained results confirm significant climatic changes and their negative manifestations on the reduction of bioclimatic potential in the Steppe zone of Ukraine, the deterioration of agricultural production conditions, the reduction of harvests, the self-regenerating and self-regulating function of steppe soils.

13

Response of methane emissions to water levels in simulated constructed wetlands

Li Yanran, Xu Qin, Ji Shuping, Liu Jian

Environment Protection Engineering

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2022

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Vol. 48, nr 3

5--12

EN

Wetland is an important natural source of methane (CH4) generated under the actions of methanogens in the anaerobic environment. A greenhouse experiment was conducted to quantify the response of methane emissions to water levels by simulating three water levels (10, 20, and 40 cm) in constructed wetlands and the methane was determined by the static chamber-gas chromatograph technique. Pearson correlation analysis showed that the emissions of CH4 were positively correlated with water temperature and air temperature while they were negatively correlated with air humidity. The water levels simulation experiment showed that the emission of CH4 was the highest when the water level was 20 cm and the CH4 concentrations of the water-air interface had different patterns at various water levels in the daytime. In conclusion, water level and temperature should be considered when accounting for greenhouse gas emissions in constructed wetlands as they both have important influences on CH4 emission.

14

Przebieg temperatury powietrza w Polsce w latach 1931–2020 : zmiany antropogeniczne czy naturalne?

Marsz Andrzej A., Styszyńska Anna

Automatyka, Elektryka, Zakłócenia

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2022

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Vol. 13, nr 1(47)

44--52

PL

Artykuł omawia wyniki badań nad zmianami rocznej temperatury powietrza na obszarze Polski w latach 1931-2020. Wyniki analizy wskazują, że wzrost temperatury nad Polską rozpoczął się dopiero po roku 1988, wraz ze zmianą warunków makrocyrkulacyjnych, wymuszonych przez zmianę stanu termicznego Atlantyku Północnego. Przeprowadzone analizy przyczyn wzrostu temperatury wykazują, że czynniki zmienności naturalnej stanowią główny czynnik kształtujący zmienność temperatury, natomiast rola wzrostu koncentracji CO2 jest w tym procesie marginalna.

EN

The results of research into changes in annual air temperatures in Poland during the period 1931-2020 have been described in the paper. The results of the analysis indicate that the increase in temperature started after 1988, which corresponded to alterations in macrocirculation conditions due to changes in thermal state of North Atlantic Ocean. The conducted analyses of temperature increase show that natural variability factors are the main cause behind temperature variability, while the role of increased CO2 concentration in this process is marginal.

15

Air Temperature in Poland from 1931 to 2020 : Are the Changes Anthropogenic or Natural?

Marsz Andrzej A., Styszyńska Anna

Automatyka, Elektryka, Zakłócenia

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2022

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Vol. 13, nr 1(47)

36--43

EN

The results of research into changes in annual air temperatures in Poland during the period 1931-2020 have been described in the paper. The results of the analysis indicate that the increase in temperature started after 1988, which corresponded to alterations in macrocirculation conditions due to changes in thermal state of North Atlantic Ocean. The conducted analyses of temperature increase show that natural variability factors are the main cause behind temperature variability, while the role of increased CO2 concentration in this process is marginal.

PL

Artykuł omawia wyniki badań nad zmianami rocznej temperatury powietrza na obszarze Polski w latach 1931-2020. Wyniki analizy wskazują, że wzrost temperatury nad Polską rozpoczął się dopiero po roku 1988, wraz ze zmianą warunków makrocyrkulacyjnych, wymuszonych przez zmianę stanu termicznego Atlantyku Północnego. Przeprowadzone analizy przyczyn wzrostu temperatury wykazują, że czynniki zmienności naturalnej stanowią główny czynnik kształtujący zmienność temperatury, natomiast rola wzrostu koncentracji CO2 jest w tym procesie marginalna.

16

Long-term analysis of air temperatures variability and trends on the Romanian Black Sea Coast

Bosneagu Romeo, Lupu Carmen Elena, Torica Emil, Lupu Sergiu, Vatu Nicolae, Tanase Viorel Mihai, Vasilache Camelia, Daneci-Patrau Daniel, Scurtu Ionut Cristian

Acta Geophysica

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2022

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Vol. 70, no 5

2179--2197

EN

Air temperature is one of the most important parameters that contribute to weather variability over time, being influenced by the flow of solar radiation, the general circulation of currents in the atmosphere relief. The present paper analyzes the minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures in Dobrogea, on the Romanian Black Sea coastal area, aiming to illustrate their evolution, which is a precondition for sustainable development in this region, from the perspective of regional and global climate changes. The weather stations included in this study are Constanta, Mangalia, Gura Portitei, Sfantu Gheorghe, and Sulina. The Pettit Test and the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test were used to determine changes in the evolution of the air temperature. For the period 1990–2020, the analysis of the change points, with a 95% confidence level, shows a particularly interesting situation supporting the general evolution of air temperature at global level. Nonparametric tests including linear regression, Mann–Kendall, and Sen's slope tests were used to analyze trends for monthly, seasonal, and annual series. Results showed an increasing trend in the annual minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures in all five weather stations.

17

Estimates of current and future climate change in Belarus based on meteorological station data and the EURO-CORDEX-11 dataset

Danilovich Irina, Geyer Beate

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2021

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Vol. 9, Iss. 1-2

1--30

EN

This study provides an assessment of the current and future changes (in terms of both direction and value) in air temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and their extremes over the territory of Belarus using information from 42 meteorological stations and 92 regional circulation model (RCM) simulations with the highest available horizontal resolution (EUR-11). Three representative concentration pathway scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered. Results demonstrate that in recent decades, temperature has increased over the territory of Belarus by 1.3°C, with the largest increase occurring during the cold season (2.1-2.3°C). Ensemble scenarios project further increases in air temperature in the current century by +0.5-1.5°C, +2.8°C, and +5.2°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the largest increase during the cold season under the RCP8.5 scenario. The annual means were observed to increase (insignificantly) by 5-7% and the summer precipitation extremes exhibited a 20-25% growth in recent decades. Moreover, dry conditions have intensified in Belarus, particularly during the growing season. Further increases in precipitation of 10-15% across Belarus are projected to occur in all seasons under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulation models predict greater increases in single day rainfall events compared to their multiday precipitation counterparts. The greatest increases in maximal dry period length (by 1-2) are expected to occur in summer and autumn. The models project the general decrease in snowfall across Belarus to continue into the current century, with a reduction in snow precipitation days of 10-30 days. Despite the reduced wind strength (by 0.9-1.0 m·s -1 ) since the 1970s over the territory of Belarus, the ensemble model reveals slight nonsignificant changes in seasonal and annual wind strengths until the end of the century. Significant changes of 1-3 days under varying directions of the wind regime were observed for days with a strong breeze and storms.

18

Air temperature in high-altitude areas as exemplified by the Tatra Mountains

Jurczak Krzysztof, Kędzia Stanisław

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2021

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Vol. 9, Iss. 1-2

1--13

EN

The climate of a high-altitude postglacial cirque, such as Kozia Dolinka, is conducive to the occurrence of permafrost. Both the depth of permafrost and the area it covers, as well as the presence of year-round snow patches, can serve as indicators for assessing the impact of global warming on the climate of mountains, including the Tatras. With few meteorological stations to survey the remote and inaccessible high-altitude areas of the Tatra Mountains, any research must rely on measurements spanning limited time periods. Against this background, the 5-year series of temperature measurements from the Kozia Dolinka cirque obtained by the Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IGiPZ PAN) can be used to analyze air temperature patterns on concave and convex terrain forms in the alpine climate zone if compared to the results of measurements from stations of the State Hydrological and Meteorological Service located nearby, i.e. the Kasprowy Wierch HighMountain Meteorological Observatory and the Hala Gąsienicowa Nival Research Station of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). This study confirms that there is a relationship between air temperature and the formation and duration of snow cover on concave and convex terrain forms. It also reveals a hitherto unknown fact that concave terrain forms, i.e. postglacial cirques, of the alpine zone have milder thermal conditions in winter than convex terrain forms. The analyses highlight the need for further, more detailed research using modern automated meteorological stations.

19

Analysis of the Impact of the Air Temperature on Water Consumption for Household Purposes in Rural Households

Bergel Tomasz, Młyńska Anna

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2021

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Vol. 22, nr 3

289--302

EN

The paper presents a research hypothesis assumed that the air temperature affects the amount of the water consumption per capita for household purposes (indoor water use). Investigations were conducted based on daily water meter readings of several rural households located in Mszana Górna and Włostowice (Southern Poland). Owing to the double water consumption metering, it was possible to determine the daily water consumption in households, separately for household purposes and for additional purposes. In the performed analysis, the correlation between the average daily air temperature and daily water consumption per capita was tested. For this purpose, correlation coefficients were determined and a 95% confidence interval was assumed. The obtained results showed lack of a clear dependence between the tested variables. Depending on the household, correlation coefficients indicate the existence of a correlation from slight, by weak to moderate. In addition, it was tested that the growth of the air temperature by 1°C caused an increase of the water consumption per capita in the range of 0.14 dm3•d-1•C-1•°C-1 and 1.17 dm3•d-1•C-1•°C-1 (Mszana Górna) and 0.41 dm3•d-1•C-1•°C-1 and 1.78 dm3•d-1•C-1•°C-1 (Włostowice). It can be concluded that often rapid growth of the water consumption in households in spring and summer season and the term of “water consumption per capita” used in this case, primarily concern greater water demand for additional purposes, not for residents’ household purposes.

20

Analysis of climate change and its potential influence on energy performance of building and indoor temperatures, part 1: Climate change scenarios

Firląg Szymon, Miszczuk Artur, Witkowski Bartosz

Archives of Civil Engineering

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2021

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Vol. 67, nr 3

29--42

EN

The subject of this paper is to analyse the climate change and its influence on the energy performance of building and indoor temperatures. The research was made on the example of the city of Kielce, Poland. It was carried out basing on the Municipal Adaptive Plan for the city of Kielce and climate data from the Ministry of Investment and Development.The predicted, future parameters of the climate were estimated using the tool Weather Shift for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The analysis took into consideration the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for years 2035 and 2065, representing different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Scenario RCP4.5 represents possible, additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 in 2100, and RCP8.5 an additional 8.5 W/m2. The calculated parameters included average month values of temperature and relative humidity of outdoor air, wind velocity and solar radiation. The results confirmed the increase of outdoor temperature in the following year. The values of relative humidity do not change significantly for the winter months, while in the summer months decrease is visible. No major changes were spotted in the level of solar radiation or wind speed. Based on the calculated parameters dynamic building modelling was carried out using the TRNSYS software. The methodology and results of the calculations will be presented in the second part of the paper.

PL

Przedmiotem artykułu jest analiza zmiany klimatu oraz jej wpływu na charakterystykę energetyczną budynku i temperaturę wewnętrzną. Badania przeprowadzono na przykładzie miasta Kielce. Ich podstawą był Miejski Plan Adaptacyjny dla miasta Kielce oraz dane klimatyczne z Ministerstwa Inwestycji i Rozwoju. Przewidywane, przyszłe parametry klimatu zostały oszacowane za pomocą narzędzia Weather Shift dla Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). W analizie uwzględniono scenariusze RCP4.5 i RCP8.5 na lata 2035 i 2065, reprezentujące różne trajektorie wzrostu stężenia gazów cieplarnianych. Scenariusz RCP4.5 reprezentuje przewidywane, dodatkowe wymuszenie radiacyjne wynoszące 4,5 W/m2 w 2100 r., a RCP8.5 dodatkowe 8,5 W/m2. Wyznaczone parametry obejmowały średnie miesięczne wartości temperatury i wilgotności względnej powietrza zewnętrznego, prędkości wiatru i wielkości promieniowania słonecznego. Wyniki obliczeń potwierdziły wzrost temperatury zewnętrznej w kolejnych latach. Wartości wilgotności względnej powietrza nie zmieniają się znacząco dla miesięcy zimowych, natomiast w miesiącach letnich widoczny jest ich spadek. Nie zaobserwowano większych zmian w poziomie promieniowania słonecznego i prędkości wiatru. Na podstawie obliczonych parametrów przeprowadzono dynamiczne modelowanie budynku przy użyciu oprogramowania TRNSYS. Metodologia i wyniki obliczeń zostaną przedstawione w drugiej części artykułu.