Monte Carlo method for bridge safety assessments with respect to ship collisions

• Autorzy: Gucma L.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Metoda Monte Carlo oceny bezpieczeństwa mostów w aspekcie możliwego zderzenia statków z ich podporami

• Konferencja: European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2005 (16 ; 27-30.06.2005 ; Gdynia-Sopot-Gdańsk)
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper presents a method of bridge safety evaluation with respect to possible collision with passing ships. The method is a combination of three separate methods: real time ship manoeuvring simulation and Monte Carlo method combined with analytical method. The first method is used to determine the probability density function of ship position during passage near the bridge piers and distributions of ship speed and courses. During simulations, human operators are employed and thus the method takes into account human reliability. Monte Carlo method is used in last step for extending the results over the bridge lifetime and possible meteorological conditions during bridge operation. It applies the previously determined distributions of ships positions that allow assessing probabilities of collision with bridge pier. The calculation of ships collision load and energy that are necessary for further consequence analysis is made on the base of distribution of ship speed obtained in simulations.

PL

W artykule przedstawiono podstawy teoretyczne i studium przypadku metody oceny ryzyka zderzania statku z podporami mostu, która oparta jest na wieloetapowym eksperymencie z elementami symulacji czasu rzeczywistego oraz metodzie Monte Carlo.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

bezpieczeństwo mostów; metoda Monte Carlo; ocena ryzyka

• Wydawca: Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Transport
• Czasopismo: Archives of Transport
• Rocznik: 2005
• Tom: Vol. 17, iss.3-4
• Strony: 85--93
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 8 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Gucma L.

• Maritime Academy of Szczecin, Institute of Marine Traffic Engineering, 1/2 Wały Chrobrego St., 70-500 Szczecin, Poland.

Bibliografia

• 1. AASHTO. Guide specification and commentary for vessel collision design of highway bridges. Volume I. Final report. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). Washington D.C., 1991.
• 2. Gluver H., Olsen D. (eds.): Ship Collision Analysis (Bridges). Rotterdam, Balkema, 1998.
• 3. Gucma L.: Combination of Photogrammetric and Simulation Method for Safety Evaluation of Ships Passage trough the Bridges. Proc. of Navigational Congress IAIN, Berlin, 2003.
• 4. Gucma L., Montewka J.: Probability of ship-bridge accident during passage under bridges obtained with use of laser rangefinder (in polish). Proc. of the Scientific Conference: Problems of Automatic in Engineering Geodesy, Warsaw, 2003.
• 5. JCSS. Probabilistic Model Code. Joint Committee on Structural Safety. Number 99-CON-DYN/M0098, February 2001.
• 6. Larsen O. D.: Ship collision with bridges- the interaction between vessel traffic and bridge structures. International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 1993.
• 7. Proske D., Curbach M.: Risk to old bridges due to ship impact on German inland waterways. Safety and Reliability, Bedford & von Gelder (eds.). Rotterdam, Balkema, 2003.
• 8. Zheng S.: The Mechanics of Ship Collision. Technical University of Denmark. Doctoral Dissertation, 1999.