Modelling and evaluation of deterioration process with maintenance activities

• Autorzy: Sugier J. , Anders G. J.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Modelowanie i analiza procesu starzenia maszyn i urządzeń poddanych okresowym remontom

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In this paper, we present an approach which allows evaluation of various possible maintenance scenarios with respect to both reliability and economic criteria. The method is based on the concept of a life curve and discounted cost used to study the effect of equipment aging under different maintenance strategies. The deterioration process is first described by a Markov model and then its various characteristics are used to develop the equipment life curve and to quantify other reliability parameters. Based on these data, effects of various “what-if” maintenance scenarios can be examined and their efficiency compared. Simple life curves are combined to model equipment deterioration undergoing diverse maintenance actions, while computing other parameters of the model allows evaluation of additional critical factors, such as the probability of equipment failure. Additionally, the paper deals with the problem of the model adjustment so that the computed repair frequencies are close to the historical values, which is very important in practical applications of the method. Moreover, we discuss the problems which may arise if automatic adjustment is used in cases when the hypothetical maintenance policies go beyond the conditions upon which the original model was built.

PL

Przedmiotem artykułu jest modelowanie różnych możliwych scenariuszy eksploatacyjnych maszyn i urządzeń, które uwzględnia kryteria zarówno niezawodnościowe, jak i ekonomiczne. Metoda opiera się na zastosowaniu krzywych życia (ang. life curves) oraz kosztów zdyskontowanych (ang. discounted costs) do analizy wpływu, jaki różne strategie eksploatacyjne wywierają na starzenie się sprzętu. Punktem wyjścia jest opisanie procesu starzenia przez model Markowa, którego charakterystyki umożliwiają następnie wyznaczenie kształtu krzywej życia oraz obliczenie innych parametrów niezawodnościowych badanego sprzętu. W oparciu o uzyskane dane możliwa jest ocena różnych hipotetycznych scenariuszy eksploatacyjnych oraz porównanie ich efektywności. Proste krzywe życia mogą być łączone ze sobą w celu wizualizacji starzenia sprzętu poddawanego różnorodnym możliwym czynnościom naprawczym, natomiast obliczenie innych charakterystyk modelu pozwala wyznaczyć dodatkowe ważne parametry, takie jak prawdopodobieństwo uszkodzenia. Dodatkowo artykuł opisuje zagadnienie korygowania parametrów modelu, tak aby obliczane w nim częstości napraw sprzętu były bliskie wartościom znanym z jego historii eksploatacji, co jest bardzo ważne w praktycznych zastosowaniach metody. Omawiamy także problemy mogące pojawić się, gdy algorytm automatycznego korygowania modelu jest stosowany w analizach hipotetycznych strategii eksploatacyjnych wykraczających poza warunki, dla których model oryginalny został opracowany.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

deterioration modelling; probabilistic methods; maintenance policy; risk assessment

PL

modelowanie procesu starzenia; metoda probabilistyczna; polityka remontowa; ocena ryzyka

• Wydawca: Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne
• Czasopismo: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
• Rocznik: 2013
• Tom: Vol. 15, no. 4
• Strony: 304--311
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 34 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Sugier J.

• Institute of Computer Engineering, Control and Robotics Wrocław University of Technology ul. Janiszewskiego 11/17 50-372 Wrocław, Poland

autor

Anders G. J.

• Department of Microelectronics and Computer Science Technical University of Łódź ul. Wólczańska 221/223 90-924 Łódź, Poland

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