Changes in Climate and Bioclimatic Potential in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine

• Autorzy: Pichura Vitalii , Potravka Larisa , Vdovenko Nataliia , Biloshkurenko Oleksandra , Stratichuk Natalia , Baysha Kira

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.12911/22998993/154844

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

To increase the level of management efficiency in the agricultural sector of the economy, it is necessary to substantiate environmental protection measures for the restoration and rational use of natural resources, to ensure the implementation of the sustainable environmental management principles, considering the spatio-temporal patterns of changes in climate and bioclimatic potential of the territory. Using the methods of multivariate statistics and time series forecasting, regularities of changes in climatic conditions in the Steppe zone of Ukraine for 1945–2019 were established, and a forecast of changes in the bioclimatic potential of the region until 2030 was made. It was established that during the research period the average annual air temperature increased by 3.5 °C. The amount of annual atmospheric precipitation varied within 186–778 mm with a variation level of 27.2%, in the last 20 years it was determined to decrease by 40% – to 500–300 mm. It has been proven that the inertial probability of repeating hot years is estimated at 0.58, and the possibility of repeating wet years at 0.46. As a result of forecasting, it was determined that if the trend of climatic conditions is maintained, there will be a stable trend-cyclic increase in the average annual air temperature by 0.06 °C per year and a decrease in the amount of annual precipitation by 62.0 mm per year. This resulted in an 18.7% increase in solar radiation on the soil surface and a 26.0% decrease in climatic losses on soil formation, which reduced the rate of the natural ability to reproduce soil fertility. In particular, the bioproductivity of plants decreased by 62.0%, and the probability of its further decrease by 20% is predicted. Over the past 20 years, the coefficient of natural humidification has decreased by 66.4%, and it is predicted to decrease by 20%. The obtained results confirm significant climatic changes and their negative manifestations on the reduction of bioclimatic potential in the Steppe zone of Ukraine, the deterioration of agricultural production conditions, the reduction of harvests, the self-regenerating and self-regulating function of steppe soils.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate; air temperature; precipitation; bioclimatic potential; retrospective analysis; forecasting; management; Steppe zone

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej ; Lublin University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Journal of Ecological Engineering
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: Vol. 23, nr 12
• Strony: 189--202
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 39 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Pichura Vitalii

• Kherson State Agrarian and Economic University, Stritens’ka str. 23, 73006, Kherson, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0358-1889

autor

Potravka Larisa

• Kherson State Agrarian and Economic University, Stritens’ka str. 23, 73006, Kherson, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0011-2286

autor

Vdovenko Nataliia

• National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Heroiv Oborony str. 15, 03041, Kiev, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0849-057X

autor

Biloshkurenko Oleksandra

• Kherson State Agrarian and Economic University, Stritens’ka str. 23, 73006, Kherson, Ukraine

autor

Stratichuk Natalia

• Kherson State Agrarian and Economic University, Stritens’ka str. 23, 73006, Kherson, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2637-3214

autor

Baysha Kira

• Kherson National Technical University, Instytutsky str. 11, 29016, Khmelnitsky, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4633-7579

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).