Analysis of climate change and its potential influence on energy performance of building and indoor temperatures, part 1: Climate change scenarios

• Autorzy: Firląg Szymon , Miszczuk Artur , Witkowski Bartosz

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/ace.2021.138041

Warianty tytułu

PL

Analiza zmiany klimatu i jego wpływu na charakterystykę energetyczną budynku oraz temperatury wewnętrzne, część 1: Scenariusze zmian klimatu

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The subject of this paper is to analyse the climate change and its influence on the energy performance of building and indoor temperatures. The research was made on the example of the city of Kielce, Poland. It was carried out basing on the Municipal Adaptive Plan for the city of Kielce and climate data from the Ministry of Investment and Development.The predicted, future parameters of the climate were estimated using the tool Weather Shift for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The analysis took into consideration the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for years 2035 and 2065, representing different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Scenario RCP4.5 represents possible, additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 in 2100, and RCP8.5 an additional 8.5 W/m2. The calculated parameters included average month values of temperature and relative humidity of outdoor air, wind velocity and solar radiation. The results confirmed the increase of outdoor temperature in the following year. The values of relative humidity do not change significantly for the winter months, while in the summer months decrease is visible. No major changes were spotted in the level of solar radiation or wind speed. Based on the calculated parameters dynamic building modelling was carried out using the TRNSYS software. The methodology and results of the calculations will be presented in the second part of the paper.

PL

Przedmiotem artykułu jest analiza zmiany klimatu oraz jej wpływu na charakterystykę energetyczną budynku i temperaturę wewnętrzną. Badania przeprowadzono na przykładzie miasta Kielce. Ich podstawą był Miejski Plan Adaptacyjny dla miasta Kielce oraz dane klimatyczne z Ministerstwa Inwestycji i Rozwoju. Przewidywane, przyszłe parametry klimatu zostały oszacowane za pomocą narzędzia Weather Shift dla Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). W analizie uwzględniono scenariusze RCP4.5 i RCP8.5 na lata 2035 i 2065, reprezentujące różne trajektorie wzrostu stężenia gazów cieplarnianych. Scenariusz RCP4.5 reprezentuje przewidywane, dodatkowe wymuszenie radiacyjne wynoszące 4,5 W/m2 w 2100 r., a RCP8.5 dodatkowe 8,5 W/m2. Wyznaczone parametry obejmowały średnie miesięczne wartości temperatury i wilgotności względnej powietrza zewnętrznego, prędkości wiatru i wielkości promieniowania słonecznego. Wyniki obliczeń potwierdziły wzrost temperatury zewnętrznej w kolejnych latach. Wartości wilgotności względnej powietrza nie zmieniają się znacząco dla miesięcy zimowych, natomiast w miesiącach letnich widoczny jest ich spadek. Nie zaobserwowano większych zmian w poziomie promieniowania słonecznego i prędkości wiatru. Na podstawie obliczonych parametrów przeprowadzono dynamiczne modelowanie budynku przy użyciu oprogramowania TRNSYS. Metodologia i wyniki obliczeń zostaną przedstawione w drugiej części artykułu.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change; outdoor parameter; scenario; representative concentration pathways; RCP; air temperature; relative humidity; wind speed; solar radiation

PL

zmiana klimatu; parametr zewnętrzny; scenariusz; reprezentatywne ścieżki koncentracji; RCP; temperatura powietrza; wilgotność względna; prędkość wiatru; promieniowanie słoneczne

• Wydawca: Komitet Inżynierii Lądowej i Wodnej PAN ; Politechnika Warszawska, Wydział Inżynierii Lądowej
• Czasopismo: Archives of Civil Engineering
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: Vol. 67, nr 3
• Strony: 29--42
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 43 poz., il., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Firląg Szymon

• University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6276-3666

autor

Miszczuk Artur

• Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1743-1451

autor

Witkowski Bartosz

• Faculty of Civil Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wrocław, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0940-0265

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2021).