What factors will shape the future of sustainable and smart cities in Europe? Evidence from the Delphi study

• Autorzy: Szpilko Danuta , Rzepka Agnieszka , Nica Elvira , Lăzăroiu George , Gedeon Tom

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.34659/eis.2025.94.3.1272

Warianty tytułu

PL

Jakie czynniki będą kształtować przyszłość zrównoważonych i inteligentnych miast w Europie? Wyniki badania Delphi

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article aims to identify and assess the factors shaping the development of sustainable and smart cities in Europe and their interrelationships. With respect to the objective, three research questions were formulated: (I) What are the factors supporting the development of sustainable and smart cities in Europe?, (II) What are the limiting factors (barriers) to the development of sustainable and smart cities in Europe?, (III) What are the main factors influencing the development of sustainable and smart cities in Europe? As part of the research process, the following methods were applied: horizon scanning, STEEPVL analysis, the Delphi method and structural analysis. The study involved 131 experts from 28 countries, whose articles on sustainable and smart cities development are indexed in the Web of Science database. The directions analysed include: smart governance and citizen participation; renewable energy microgrids with decentralised energy trading; delegating decisions to AI-based systems; and urban digital twins. The Delphi results unambiguously indicate three main enabling factors: access to external sources of finance; advanced digital infrastructure together with data integration; and a high level of cybersecurity and data protection. The principal barriers were identified as: a low level of integration across urban systems and a lack of data interoperability; limited fiscal capacity of local authorities; and institutional resistance to change and to the digital climate transition. The results of the structural analysis indicate that institutional governance, the maturity of data infrastructure and interoperability set the trajectory of change. The findings entail practical implications: institutional governance and regulatory transparency should be strengthened; diversified, multi-source funding should be ensured; interoperability should be prioritised; and AI and digital twins should then be scaled in step with capability development and a security-by-design approach.

PL

Artykuł ma na celu identyfikację i ocenę czynników kształtujących rozwój zrównoważonych i inteligentnych miast w Europie oraz ich wzajemnych oddziaływań. W odniesieniu do celu sformułowano trzy pytania badawcze: (I) Jakie czynniki sprzyjają rozwojowi zrównoważonych i inteligentnych miast w Europie? (II) Jakie czynniki ograniczają (utrudniają) rozwój zrównoważonych i inteligentnych miast w Europie? (III) Jakie są główne czynniki wpływające na rozwój zrównoważonych i inteligentnych miast w Europie? W ramach procesu badawczego zastosowano: horizon scanning, analizę STEEPVL, metodę Delphi i analizę strukturalną. W badaniu wzięło udział 131 ekspertów z 28 krajów, publikujących artykuły z zakresu zrównoważonego i inteligentnego rozwoju miast, indeksowane w bazie Web of Science. Analizowane kierunki obejmują: smart governance i partycypację mieszkańców, odnawialne mikrosieci energetyczne ze zdecentralizowanym obrotem energią, delegowanie decyzji na systemy oparte na AI oraz miejskie cyfrowe bliźniaki. Wyniki Delphi jednoznacznie wskazują trzy główne czynniki sprzyjające: dostęp do zewnętrznych źródeł finansowania, rozwiniętą infrastrukturę cyfrową oraz integrację danych, a także wysoki poziom cyberbezpieczeństwa i ochrony danych. Za najważniejsze bariery uznano: niski poziom integracji systemów miejskich i brak interoperacyjności danych, ograniczony potencjał finansowy samorządów oraz opór instytucjonalny wobec zmiany i transformacji cyfrowo-klimatycznej. Wyniki analizy strukturalnej wskazują zaś, że sterowanie instytucjonalne, dojrzałość infrastruktury danych i interoperacyjność wyznaczają trajektorię zmian. Z uzyskanych wyników wynikają implikacje praktyczne: należy wzmocnić sterowanie instytucjonalne i przejrzystość prawa, zapewnić wieloźródłowe finansowanie, nadać priorytet interoperacyjności, a następnie skalować AI i cyfrowe bliźniaki wraz z rozwojem kompetencji i podejściem security-by-design.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

sustainable city; smart city; participation; energy; digital twins; artificial intelligence; structural analysis; Delphi method; STEEPVL analysis

PL

zrównoważone miasto; inteligentne miasto; partycypacja; energia; cyfrowe bliźniaki; sztuczna inteligencja; analiza strukturalna; metoda Delphi; analiza STEEPVL

• Wydawca: Polskie Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistów Środowiska i Zasobów Naturalnych
• Czasopismo: Economics and Environment
• Rocznik: 2025
• Tom: No. 3
• Strony: art. no. 1272
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 83 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Szpilko Danuta

• Bialystok University of Technology, Poland, Wiejska Street 45a, 15-351 Bialystok, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2866-8059

autor

Rzepka Agnieszka

• Lublin University of Technology, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4495-6066

autor

Nica Elvira

• Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7383-2161

autor

Lăzăroiu George

• Curtin University, Australia
• Toronto Metropolitan University, Canada
• Cardiff Metropolitan University, United Kingdom

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3422-6310

autor

Gedeon Tom

• Curtin University, Australia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8356-4909

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