Risk assessment in railway rolling stock planning

• Autorzy: Gołębiowski Piotr , Góra Ignacy , Bolzhelarskyi Yaroslav

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5604/01.3001.0016.2817

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Rolling stock planning is one of the steps in the traffic planning process considered from the railway undertaking's point of view. It is directly related to the efficiency of rolling stock utilisation, which should be ensured at the highest possible level in the case of rail transport. The planning work stage is subject to certain risks (threats and opportunities), which, if they materialise, will impact it. It, therefore, makes sense to carry out analyses that can anticipate specific events in good time and introduce appropriate countermeasures in advance. This article aims to conduct a risk assessment process concerning rolling stock planning. It was assumed that the considerations were carried out based on the M_o_R (Management of Risk) methodology. Based on this methodology, risk identification and risk analysis (estimation of risk impact) were carried out. Risk assessment was carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The work identified sixteen risks that represent threats. The principle of risk description was used to identify risks. It requires indicating for each risk the reason for its occurrence and the effect it may have. As a part of risk estimation, variables were selected to assess each risk's impact on the objectives of the stage. Publicly available statistical data were used to define the variables. The variables were expressed in monetary units. The work identified five variables describing impact, which were assigned to the individual risks. As a triangular probability distribution was used for the variability of impact description, the variable's minimum, most likely, and maximum value was identified. A risk assessment was carried out for only two impact description variables (for those variables used to describe the impact of the most significant number of risks). For each variable, statistical parameters were indicated and analysed. The resulting value of the variable describing the impact was then read out for each percentile, and the expected value of the risk was calculated. A detailed risk assessment was made for the lower, middle and upper quartiles. A histogram of the incidence of each variable value was presented, and an assessment was made.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

railway rolling stock; transportation planning; risk assessment; risk impact estimation; Monte Carlo method; efficiency

PL

tabor kolejowy; planowanie przewozów; ocena ryzyka; ocena wpływu; metoda Monte Carlo; efektywność

• Wydawca: Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Transport
• Czasopismo: Archives of Transport
• Rocznik: 2023
• Tom: Vol. 65, iss. 1
• Strony: 137--154
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 68 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Gołębiowski Piotr

• Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Transport, Warsaw, Poland

autor

Góra Ignacy

• Office of Rail Transport, Warsaw, Poland

autor

Bolzhelarskyi Yaroslav

• Lviv Polytechnic National University, Institute of Mechanical Engineering and Transport, Lviv, Ukraine

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023)