Usefulness of the adopted method for the number of aviation occurrences prediction

• Autorzy: Balicki W. , Glowacki P.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5604/01.3001.0010.2791

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Poland – according to ICAO requirements, is obliged to conduct analyses of the coefficients adopted to assess the level of safety in civil aviation. They are carried out on the basis of the data contained in the ECCAIRS database. The authors have processed the data contained in this database by analysing them using various criteria (ICAO aviation occurrence categories, flight phases, different airports) to test the methodology of the safety indicators values forecasting and setting their “warning levels”. Exceedance of these levels could be a signal for taking preventive action by the relevant competent aviation authorities. The proposed method is based on the assumption that the determined parameters are governed by normal distribution rules (Gaussian). Parameter values calculated based on real data from 2016 were compared with those predicted a year earlier. It was found that the factors for different events have increased significantly - above the calculated warning levels, particularly for general aviation. The results of this analysis may support competent aviation authorities' decisions in areas where safety risks are most critical.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

air transport; air traffic safety; safety management; aviation occurrence

PL

transport lotniczy; bezpieczeństwo ruchu lotniczego; zarządzanie bezpieczeństwem; wypadki lotnicze

• Wydawca: Łukasiewicz Research Network - Institute of Aviation ; European Science Society of Powertrain and Transport KONES Poland ; Wydawnictwo Instytutu Technicznego Wojsk Lotniczych
• Czasopismo: Journal of KONES
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 24, No. 1
• Strony: 23--29
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 16 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Balicki W.

• Institute of Aviation Department of Space Technologies Krakowska Av. 110/114, 02-256 Warsaw, Poland tel.: [phone] ext. 618

autor

Glowacki P.

• Institute of Aviation Department of Space Technologies Krakowska Av. 110/114, 02-256 Warsaw, Poland tel.: [phone] ext. 618

Bibliografia

• [1] Aviation Occurrence Categories, Definitions and Usage Notes, International Civil Aviation Organization, Common Taxonomy Team, (4.6), 2013.
• [2] Annual Safety Review 2014, European Aviation Safety Agency, Safety Intelligence & Performance Department, Cologne, Germany 2015.
• [3] Aviation technician advanced training program Continental engine theory, Teledyne Continental Motors, Inc., 2005.
• [4] ATA Specification 100 – Specification for Manufacturers, Technical Data, Publications Department Air Transport Association (ATA) of America, Inc. Washington, DC 20004-1707 USA.
• [5] Balicki, W., Głowacki, P., Aircraft engines – analysis of reported systems failures in Polish Aviation during years 2008-2015, Journal of KONES Powertrain and Transport, ISSN 1231-4005, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 31-37, Warsaw 2016.
• [6] Balicki, W., Głowacki. P., Kawalec, M., Assessment of the airframe systems affecting safety risks caused by large aircraft, Journal of KONES Powertrain and Transport, ISSN 1231-4005, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 39-46, Warsaw 2016.
• [7] Balicki, W., Głowacki, P., Loroch, L., Safety performance indicators assessment for small aircraft airframe systems, Journal of KONES Powertrain and Transport, ISSN 1231-4005, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 31-38, Warsaw 2016.
• [8] Coppola, A., Practical Statistical Tools for the Reliability Engineer, Reliability Analysis Centre, 201 Mill Street, 13440-6916, Rome – NY 1999.
• [9] Głowacki, P., Balicki, W., ICAO aviation occurrence categories significantly affecting aviation safety in Poland from 2008 to 2015, Scientific Journal of Silesian University of Technology, Series Transport, No. 94, pp. 47-56, 2017.
• [10] Krzyżanowski, Z., Wieczorek, A., Chróściewicz, A., Wykorzystanie metody Bowtie oraz techniki GSN do analiz bezpieczeństwa ruchu lotniczego, Prace Naukowe Politechniki Warszawskiej, Transport, Z. 103, Warszawa 2014.
• [11] Loroch, L., Bezpieczeństwo lotnictwa krajowego w działalności Instytutu Lotnictwa, Oprac. „Bezpieczeństwo i niezawodność w lotnictwie, Rozwój lotnictwa w regionach”, Wyd. NOT, Radom 2015.
• [12] Safety Management Manual (SMM), Doc 9859, AN/474, Third edition ICAO, 2012.
• [13] Pettit, D., Turnbull, A., General Aviation Aircraft reliability Study, NASA Langley Research Centre, 23681-2199, Hampton, Virginia 2001.
• [14] Wiśniowski, W., XX lat programu samolotów lekkich i bezpieczeństwa (PSLiB), Transactions of the Institute of Aviation, No. 3(236), 2014.
• [15] Rozporządzenie Parlamentu Europejskiego i Rady (UE) nr 376/2014 z dnia 3 kwietnia 2014 r. w sprawie zgłaszania i analizy zdarzeń w lotnictwie cywilnym oraz podejmowanych w związku z nimi działań następczych, Dziennik Urzędowy Unii Europejskiej, druk nr L 122/18 z dn. 24.04.2014.
• [16] www.ULC.gov/pl/regulacja-rynku/3724-statystyki-wg-portow-lotniczych.

Uwagi

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).