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EN
In our previous studies, we modified the Enders and Siklos test for threshold error correction to a version allowing the individual threshold variable to be responsible for the asymmetric mechanism of the system. The idea was to learn about the threshold mechanism both in the long and short run. In this paper, we tested for the asymmetry of the adjustment of the error correction mechanism towards the long-run path. The subsamples within regimes differ in size with respect to the threshold value. The novelty lies in the division of both short and long-run variables according to a threshold variable with a given threshold value (assumed or estimated). We named the test extended Enders and Siklos test (exE-S). The present study focuses on the power and size of the modified procedure. A simulation study was designed, computed and conducted. The results are favourable for the proposed approach, although they strongly depend on the difference in values between the adjustment parameters in the regimes. (original abstract)
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Charakteryzowano monetarne i fiskalne instrumenty pobudzania wzrostu gospodarczego.
EN
An important issue of numerous economic theories and modern economic policies are methods of stimulating and sustaining economic growth. The growing influence of many negative phenomena of the late 20th century undermined the general trust in traditional mechanisms of Keynesian stabilisation policy. Therefore, nowadays various shades of neoliberal theories predominate economic theory and practice. Another outcome of such an evolution is a modified approach to monetary and fiscal instruments for facilitating economic growth and stabilisation of economy. (original abstract)
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Dla strefy euro Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy prognozuje wzrost gospodarczy na poziomie 1,3% PKB w 2011 r., zaś dla całej UE - na poziomie 2,3%. Stosunkowo niski wzrost gospodarczy będzie efektem niezbędnych drastycznych ograniczeń wydatków, które hamują ekspansję gospodarki, a także skutki kryzysu greckiego, irlandzkiego, portugalskiego i hiszpańskiego. Poza tym odmienna polityka gospodarcza UE i Stanów Zjednoczonych sprawi, że gospodarki te będą ze sobą konkurowały, poszukując najprawdopodobniej już pod koniec 2011 r. refinansowania zadłużenia państwowego. W 2. dekadzie XXI wieku obie strony są przytłoczone przez problemy wewnętrzne i chcą je rozwiązywać inaczej, co nie sprzyja współpracy międzynarodowej i rynkom finansowym. Dylematem może być łagodna polityka pieniężna Stanów Zjednoczonych i obawy o niewypłacalność państw strefy euro.(abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
The International Monetary Fund forecasts economic growth for the euro area at 1.3% of GDP in 2011 and for the whole EU at 2.3%. Relatively low economic growth will result from the necessary drastic reductions in spending, which inhibit the expansion of the economy, and the effects of Greek, Irish, Portuguese and Spanish crisis. So far, a similar philosophy of the United States and the euro zone has been sufficient to prevent a big recession. In the second decade of the twenty-first century both sides are overwhelmed by domestic problems that they want to solve in a different way which does not favour the international cooperation and financial markets. The dilemma can be the mild monetary policy of the United States and the fears of insolvency of the states from the euro area. A different economic policy in the United States and the euro area may refer to the party capital in the countries of the "3G" Group.(original abstract)
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W artykule ukazano, że ograniczenia finansów publicznych Kraju Członkowskiego Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej nie wynikają jedynie z Traktatu i Paktu Sta-bilności i Wzrostu, ale także z deklaracji i wytycznych. Te ostatnie, mimo iż nie mają takiej doniosłości prawnej jak Traktat i uzupełniające go załączniki, tzn. nadrzędności nad prawem krajowym i bezpośredniości stosowania, wywierają nie mniejszy wpływ. W związku z tym, iż stosowanie jednych i drugich przepisów nastręcza krajom eurostrefy duże trudności, a część przepisów stała się martwą literą pra-wa, głosy o zmianie ustaleń traktatowych odnoszących się do polityki fiskalnej, padają na coraz bardziej podatny grunt. Problem rewizji Paktu Stabilności i Wzrostu staje się coraz bardziej palącym wyzwaniem Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej. Jak pokazuje rysunek 4, w 2001 roku Portugalia złamała przepisy Paktu, a Niemcy i Francja niebezpiecznie blisko zbliżyły się do progowych wartości. W 2003 roku kraje te, mimo zaleceń Komisji i grożących sankcji, posiadały deficyty budżetowe przekraczające 3% PKB. W obecnym roku do tej grupy dołączyły także Włochy, obniżając średnią 12 - Krajów Członkowskich strefy euro do poziomu -2,4% PKB (fragment tekstu)
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Umowa o wolnym handlu pomiędzy Stanami Zjednoczonymi będzie dokumentem o historycznym znaczeniu dla gospodarki światowej. Komisja Europejska szacuje, że jeśli porozumienie wejdzie w życie, może przynieść Unii rocznie dodatkowe 119 mld euro, a Stanom Zjednoczonym - 95 mld euro. Niniejszy artykuł ma na celu zbadanie, w jaki sposób TTIP może pozytywnie wpływać zarówno na gospodarkę światową, jak i polską, ale też jakie zagrożenia niesie za sobą wprowadzenie porozumienia o wolnym handlu pomiędzy partnerami, których połączone gospodarki tworzą ponad połowę światowego PKB.(abstrakt autora)
EN
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is set to become a document of historical significance to the global economy. Estimates by the European Commission predict that, once in power, the TTIP will bring annual gains of 95 bn and 119 bn euro to the US and EU economies, respectively. This article aims to evaluate how the TTIP can boost both global and Polish economy, but also to examine potential threats brought about by a free trade agreement between two major players who, between them, account for more than half of the world's GDP.(author's abstract)
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Wiele badań poświęconych sektorowi ICT wskazuje na ich dodatnią zależność ze wzrostem gospodarczym w różnych krajach i regionach świata. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest zbadanie owej zależności w krajach Unii Europejskiej w latach 2006-2016. Przeprowadzona analiza wykazała ujemny wpływ czynników ICT na wzrost gospodarczy dla 28 krajów Unii.(abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
Many studies indicate a positive relationship between the ICT sector and economic growth in differ-ent countries and the world regions. The aim of article is to examine this dependence in the Europe-an Union in 2006-2016. The analysis showed a negative correlation between economic growth and ICT factors for EU countries. (original abstract)
7
Content available remote The Evolution of Idea of Socio-Economic Development
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EN
The purpose of the paper is to reconstruct features of socio-cultural context in which it has changed the way of understanding of development concept in economics. Division of economic development and economic growth took place in 1960s. Change of understanding of development concept was caused by the following factors: (1) influence of new sociological and philosophical ideas, (2) historical events (mainly the Second World War and decolonisation process), (3) growing meaning of formalism and scientism in economic considerations, (4) appearance of mechanistic ideas in economics, (5) international cooperation for development that allows to formulate preferred development goals.(original abstract)
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The paper attempts to answer the question how changes in the economic situation influence on employment in flexible forms. The research encompassed 11 Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia) on the basis of statistical data published by Eurostat for the period of 2004 to 2015. Data analysis was performed using the correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination. The results indicate that the level of employment in flexible forms in a small extent dependent on the economic situation (responds poorly to periods of recession and recovery). (abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
W pracy podjęto próbę odpowiedzi na pytanie, w jaki sposób zmiany sytuacji gospodarczej wpływają na zatrudnienie w elastycznych formach. Badaniami objęto 11 krajów Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej (Bułgarię, Republikę Czeską, Estonię, Chorwację, Łotwę, Litwę, Węgry, Polskę, Rumunię, Słowenię i Słowację), bazując na danych statystycznych publikowanych przez Eurostat za okres 2004 do 2015. Analiza danych została przeprowadza za pomocą współczynników korelacji i współczynnik determinacji. Otrzymane wyniki wskazują, że poziom zatrudnienia w elastycznych formach w niewielkim stopniu zależy od sytuacji gospodarczej (słabo reaguje na okresy recesji i ożywienia gospodarczego).(original abstract)
EN
Purpose: The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between external debt and economic growth in Poland for the period 2004-2021. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study uses quarterly, secondary data spanning from 2004 to 2021. The data gathered in the research were analysed using the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and backward stepwise regression model. Findings: The empirical results of research show that relationship between changes in ratio of external debt stock to GDP and economic growth is positive but not significant in period 2004-2021. This suggest that foreign borrowing minimally contributes to economic expansion of Poland. Furthermore, the results for the control variables indicate that trade openness and investment have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, whereas financial development and inflation negative. Practical Implications: Understanding variables that influence countries' economic growth is essential for designing appropriate economic policies, including debt management strategy. The research results can be used to formulate debt management strategy, which helps to minimalize risk connected with foreign borrowing. Poland should decrease dependence on external debt and increase reliance on domestic savings and other non-debt creating inflows. In addition, the results of study provide a reasonable basis for further research on the influence of the foreign debt' composition on economic expansion of the country. Originality/Value: The nexus external debt-economic growth is widely debated by researchers, however until now, little research has been done about this relationship in Poland.(original abstract)
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Przedmiotem badania są relacje ilościowe między agregatami ekonomicznymi gospodarki, zgodnej z założeniami teorii neoklasycznej. Praca składa się z dwóch części. W pierwszej z nich analizie poddano strukturę produktu końcowego gospodarki (w podziale na akumulację i konsumpcję), gdy gospodarka ta rozwija się przy oscylacyjnie zmiennej stopie wzrostu czynnika pracy. Założenia teorii prowadzą do tzw. prostego zadania wariacyjnego względem funkcji "wydajność pracy" (dochód na zatrudnionego). Okazuje się, że mimo zmiennej stopy wzrostu zatrudnienia dochód rośnie w stałej stopie przy jedynej wartości podziału na akumulację i konsumpcję (udział akumulacji w dochodzie równy 1/3). W części drugiej, korzystając z opóźnienia między konsumpcją (na zatrudnionego) a dochodem (na zatrudnionego) również układa się proste zadanie wariacyjne a założenia teorii neo-klasycznej prowadzą w tym przypadku do funkcji produkcji Cobba-Douglasa, wyprowadzonej z założeń czysto ekonomicznych. (abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
ABSTRAKT Objective: The objective of this paper is to show the connection between economic openness with economic growth and attempt to answer the following question: Did the accession to EU had any affect on correlation between economic growth and the economic openness? Research Design & Methods: The research method adopted here was a study of correlation among the variables. Program "Statistica" have been used to study this correalation. Economic growth plays the role of a dependent variable and is estimated according to GDP. An economy’s openness is an independent variable and is estimated by the openness factor calculated using this formula: the sum of exports and imports divided by GDP. Findings: Not all research agrees with the idea of the positive influence of openness in the economy on economic growth. In 2004, the former ‘Eastern Bloc’ countries (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia) joined the European Union, offering an opportunity to study the effects of accession. Implications & Recommendations: The study has been divided into two phases. The first phase examines the relation between the economic growth rate and the openness factor for the 24 countries which were members of the EU in 2004. The results show a positive correlation between the studied variables. Afterwards, each of the eight listed countries were researched concerning two time periods: the first from before their accession to the EU and the second after their accession to the EU. Correlation research does not satisfactorily settle this aspect. In the second phase of the study, a longer time horizon was allowed and the former Eastern Bloc countries were researched again. The results were explicit and credible. A positive and statistically substantial correlation for the researched countries was achieved. Contribution & Value Added: On the basis of the conducted research the following conclusions were drawn.An analysis of the correlation between economic growth and economic openness shows a positive dependency with the following assumptions: the researched group consists of the 24 EU countries in 2004 and the research is done within the 2004-2015 period.The twice-run correlation research for the time periods 1995-2004 and 2004-2015 respectively and for the eight selected countries does not present explicit results. Consequently, it cannot be concluded that accession to the EU has positively influenced the correlation between economic growth and economic openness.The correlation research for 1995-2015 and the eight selected countries do confirm the popularity of the idea of the positive influence of the economic openness on economic growth.
12
Content available remote European financial integration and economic growth
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EN
This paper is a contribution to the empirical analysis of the link between financial intermediation and economic growth, more precisely the real GDP per capita growth, in the context of the European Union and particularly in the context of the recent enlargement to new member-states, however, just before the last financial and economical crisis. We use panel fixed effects estimates considering two sub-sets of EU countries: the first comprises 11 "old" EU countries, (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) for the period between Q1 1980 and Q3 2006; the second panel includes 26 EU countries, excluding only Luxembourg, for the period between Q1 1999 and Q3 2006. The results obtained allow us to draw conclusions not only on the importance of the considered financial variables to economic growth, but also on the level of integration in the two considered sub-sets. There is evidence of financial integration in the form of the similarities in the behaviour of the different countries, in spite of their different initial conditions. (original abstract)
14
Content available remote Income Inequality in China 1952-2017 : Persistence and Main Determinants
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EN
Research background: China's economic growth, however remarkable, is due to the Harrod-Domar nature of economic growth and, therefore, limited. The main limitation lies in the extension of the neoclassical growth model and the government need to decrease regional disparities using new migration, urbanization and social policy.Purpose of the article: It is the rising regional disparity in the total factor productivity to cause the income inequality increase (measured by GINI index) in China from 1952-2017. Our paper brings new insight into the main inequality determinants and causes in China, using a fractional integration modeling framework.Methods: Using fractional integration, we find total factor productivity (TFP), real gross domestic product per capita and growth and expenditures for the social safety net and employment effort to have a statistically significant impact on GINI. Income inequality in China is of a persistent nature with the effects of the shocks affecting the GINI index enduring over time.Findings & value added: The results of this study highlight the importance for model/policy changes by the policy makers and practitioners in China to deal with the inequality issue. This involves improving the growth model through innovation and technological advancement, relaxing TFP dependence on the physical inputs (labor and capital) to reduce income inequality. (original abstract)
EN
Objective: The objective of this paper is to show the connection between economic openness with economic growth and attempt to answer the following question: Did the accession to EU had any affect on correlation between economic growth and the economic openness? Research Design & Methods: The research method adopted here was a study of correlation among the variables. Program "Statistica" have been used to study this correalation. Economic growth plays the role of a dependent variable and is estimated according to GDP. An economy's openness is an independent variable and is estimated by the openness factor calculated using this formula: the sum of exports and imports divided by GDP. Findings: Not all research agrees with the idea of the positive influence of openness in the economy on economic growth. In 2004, the former 'Eastern Bloc' countries (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia) joined the European Union, offering an opportunity to study the effects of accession. Implications & Recommendations: The study has been divided into two phases. The first phase examines the relation between the economic growth rate and the openness factor for the 24 countries which were members of the EU in 2004. The results show a positive correlation between the studied variables. Afterwards, each of the eight listed countries were researched concerning two time periods: the first from before their accession to the EU and the second after their accession to the EU. Correlation research does not satisfactorily settle this aspect. In the second phase of the study, a longer time horizon was allowed and the former Eastern Bloc countries were researched again. The results were explicit and credible. A positive and statistically substantial correlation for the researched countries was achieved. Contribution & Value Added: On the basis of the conducted research the following conclusions were drawn. An analysis of the correlation between economic growth and economic openness shows a positive dependency with the following assumptions: the researched group consists of the 24 EU countries in 2004 and the research is done within the 2004-2015 period. The twice-run correlation research for the time periods 1995-2004 and 2004-2015 respectively and for the eight selected countries does not present explicit results. Consequently, it cannot be concluded that accession to the EU has positively influenced the correlation between economic growth and economic openness. The correlation research for 1995-2015 and the eight selected countries do confirm the popularity of the idea of the positive influence of the economic openness on economic growth. (original abstract)
XX
Artykuł jest odpowiedzią na polemikę Tymoteusza Doligalskiego: Kiedy nastąpi Armageddon? W2060, 2100, a może był w 1957,?
EN
The article is a response to the controversy by Tymoteusz Doligalski: When Armageddon would be? In 2060, 2100, and maybe occurred in 1957?
EN
The theories of economic growth - though often very correct with respect to formal logic - were marked by total disparity with the realities of social and economic development. Looking the new ways to overcome the resulting impasse the Author discusses entropy approach, opening new perspectives for studying economic processes in full lincage: matter-energy and information. The entropy aspects fully reveal the rules of struggle to Iive and to survive, so different from the 19th century illusions about economic harmony. The economic choice cannot be aimed, as yet, at immidiate profit but must include forsighted progressive perspectives. Against this background the growth of the coefficient of useful spending: of raw products, materials, fuels becomes of primary importance. Also useless overproduction is a crime against contemporary humanity but even more so against the future generations. Sensibly comprehended optimalisation of growth is only one way to avoid the tragical consequences of the thoughtless waste of free energy which is at our disposal. (original abstract)
EN
The paper attempts to appreciate the practical usefulness of synthetic measures used to measure the dynamics of economic growth. As synthetic measures of economic growth in socialist countries are regarded such factors as 1. the total Income, 2. gross national income, 3. net national income; these are based on the principles of the Marxist methodology. In contrast with this the measuring of the phenomena of economic growth in capitalist countries is based on 1) the Gross National Product (GNP), 2) Net National Product (NNP) and 3) National Income (NI) calculated to the bourgeois methodology. A critical evaluation of the above mentioned measures has been carried out separately for the socialist and the capitalist economies. It has been pointed out in the paper that both for the socialist the capitalist countries the net national income is the best measure of economic growth. (original abstract)
EN
The article aims to discuss the relationship between economic growth and unemployment as well as related determinant factors based on literature review. The traditional approach presents this relationship through the prism of the effects of creation, capitalization, pool of savings and creative destruction. Nowadays, an increasing number of researchers attach more importance to the impact of institutional factors, such as minimum and efficiency wages or the flexibility of the labor market. Both theoretical and empirical research reveal both the evolution of the relevant views and the lack of consistency between the concepts explaining the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in different regions of the world and in different groups of countries.
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W artykule przedstawiono wyniki testowania przyczynowości w sensie Grangera pomiędzy liczbą patentów, nakładami na BiR i PKB w Polsce w oparciu o dane kwartalne dla okresu 2000 Q1-Q4 2009. Wyniki badań potwierdziły istotny wpływ postępu technicznego na PKB w Polsce. Co więcej, stwierdzono, iż liczba patentów jest przyczyną zmian wielkości zatrudnienia, która z kolei wpływa na poziom nakładów na BiR. Wpływ liczby patentów na wielkość wydatków na BiR został także potwierdzony poprzez analizę dodatkowego dwu¬wymiarowego modelu. Pomimo, iż nakłady na BiR w Polsce są wciąż niskie, przeprowadzone badania dostarczyły dowodów potwierdzających istotny wpływ postępu technicznego na wzrost PKB. Wzorem innych wysoko rozwiniętych krajów OECD tak rząd jak i prywatni przedsiębiorcy powinni zwiększyć wielkość inwestycji w sektorze BiR polskiej gospodarki. (abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
This paper presents the results of testing the causal interdependence between the number of patents, R&D outlays and GDP in Poland on the basis of quarterly data for the period Q1 2000-Q4 2009. We found the significant evidence of causality running from technological progress to GDP in Poland. In addition, we found that the number of patents is a causal factor for employment and that employment Granger causes R&D outlays. These findings indicate causality from patents to R&D expenditure, which was also detected by the analysis of a separate (two-dimensional) model. Although R&D outlays in Poland are still insufficient, our study indicates a significant contribution of technological progress to economic growth. One may claim that Polish government and private firms should invest more in R&D sector. (original abstract)
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