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Modeling the Real Estate Prices in Olsztyn under Instability Conditions

100%

Bełej M. , Kulesza S.

nr 1

61-72

The paper deals with the description of the issues related to the dynamics of the real estate market in terms of sharp, unexpected changes in the housing prices which have been observed in the last decade in many European countries due to some macroeconomic circumstances. When such perturbations appear, the real estate market is said to be structurally unstable, since even a small variation in the control parameters might result in a large, structural change in the state of the whole system. The essential problem addressed in the paper is the need to define and discriminate between the intervals of stable and unstable real estate market development with special attention paid to the latter. The research aims at modeling hardly explored field of discontinuous changes in the real estate market in order to reveal the bifurcation edge. Assuming that the periods of sudden price changes reflect an intrinsic property of the real estate market, it is shown that the evolution path draws for most of the time a smooth curve onto the stability area of the equilibrium surface, and only briefly penetrates into the instability area to hop to another equilibrium state.

DYNAMICS OF THE REAL ESTATE PRICES IN THE LIGHT OF THE CATASTROPHE THEORY

100%

Kulesza S. , Bełej M.

Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica

2014

tom 3

nr 302

The paper describes application of catastrophe theory for analysis of trends of real estate prices inPoznan. It turns out that the evolution of the real estate market is comprised of two main processes: long-term evolution in the area of a non-degenerate stability and discontinuous, rapid changes in the area of a degenerate stability. In the macro scale, the construction and developing branch contributes largely to the Gross Domestic Product affecting overall economic environment. In the micro scale, however, the knowledge about future price trends may help to decide whether or not to buy or sell the house property.

The Influence Of Financing On The Dynamics Of Housing Prices

100%

Bełej M. , Kulesza S.

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

2014

tom 14

nr 2

101-113

Real estate market can be thought of as an open, dynamic system. It means that it is able to exchange stimuli with other open systems, and that its state evolves in a way that might be described mathematically. It turns out that two main processes contribute to the overall evolution of the real estate market: long-term, predictable evolution, interrupted by sharp changes of catastrophic origin. In this picture, national housing funds play an important role in supporting the housing finance: on one hand they could either stimulate or suppress the real estate market influencing the availability of the mortgage credit, but on the other hand, they could also help to stabilize prices. In this study, an attempt was made to determine the degree of relationship between the volume of mortgage financing from national housing funds and the dynamics of real estate prices.