Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

The influence of consumer recommendations on advertising strategies in a non-linear optimal goodwill model with market segmentation

100%

Bogusz D. , Górajski M.

Mathematical Economics

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2015

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nr 11(18)

5-20

XX

We propose a new dynamical model of product goodwill. It is assumed that the product is sold in many market segments. The segments here are distinct according to the age of the consumers. We take into account the fact that the product goodwill in a segment of new consumers strongly depends on: the level of product goodwill in existing consumer segments, on consumer recommendations, and on advertising efforts which are diverse for different market segments and times. In our optimal control model, the control variables are the company’s advertising efforts in order to maximize its profits. The optimal solution of this model is obtained by the use of the maximum principle. Additionally, the sensitivity of this solution to different analytical forms of consumer recommendation functions is briefly analysed.

2

Report of the XI International Conference on Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making - FindEcon’2014

80%

Górajski M. , Szafrański G. , Wdowiński P.

Przegląd Statystyczny

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2014

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tom 61

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nr 3

317-320

3

Notes on some optimal monetary policy rules: the case of Poland

80%

Milo W. , Bogusz D. , Górajski M. , Urlichs M. , University of Lodz D. o. E.

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EN

The paper contains results concerning theoretical and practical utility of a simple optimal control model describing monetary policy rules. Solving this model enables to find useful forms of optimal monetary rules for the two policy scenarios. They were derived for the given form of linear VAR(s) state model describing the time evolution of deviations of logarithmic values of GDP growth rates around its HP-filtered potential counterparts, empirical CPI inflation rates around NBP-target rates and expected inflation rates around long-term trend expectations, as well as, for the two forms of J-cost functionals expressing two paths of optimal NBP target interest. Numerical values of these rates, obtained for Polish quarterly data, were the base both for calculating corresponding to them values of target inflation rates, GDP-growth rates, and also for making some remarks about their behaviour in comparison to their empirical counterparts.

PL

W artykule przestawiono wstępne wyniki badania dotyczącego zastosowania modelu optymalnego sterowania opisującego reguły polityki pieniężnej. Rozwiązanie takiego modelu umożliwiło znalezienie użytecznych form optymalnych reguł polityki pieniężnej w przypadku przyjętych dwóch scenariuszy. Reguły te zostały wyprowadzone w oparciu o liniowy model VAR(s) opisujący zmiany odchylenia logarytmów stóp wzrostu PKB od ich długookresowego trendu, odchylenia empirycznych poziomów CPI od celu inflacyjnego NBP, odchylenia oczekiwań inflacyjnych od ich długookresowego trendu, jak również w oparciu o dwie postaci funkcjonału J-pozwalające na wyznaczenie różnych trajektorii optymalnych poziomów stóp procentowych NBP. Teoretyczne wartości tych stóp, ustalone w oparciu o polskie dane kwartalne, stanowiły podstawę do określenia odpowiadających im poziomów inflacji, stóp wzrostu PKB jak również do porównania ich z rzeczywistymi stopami procentowymi NBP.

4

INFLATION IN POLAND UNDER STATE-DEPENDENT PRICING

80%

Baranowski P. , Górajski M. , Malaczewski M. , Szafranski G.

Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)

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2016

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tom 64

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nr 10

937 – 957

EN

We investigate the short-term dynamics of the Polish economy by means of a small-scale DSGE model with stochastic menu costs. We compare macroeconomic evidence of price rigidity in a model with the state-dependent Phillips curve to a benchmark model with conventional time-dependent price stickiness. With a moderate 2.3% upper boundary on menu costs the estimated state-dependent pricing model for Poland indicates a median duration of prices about 14 months, whereas the same measure of price stickiness in the time-dependent pricing model is 3 months shorter. The result from the state-dependent pricing model estimated from macro data is closer to, both, micro-price evidence, and surveys on frequency of price changes in Poland. The difference is explained by a selection effect being present in the model with state-dependent price stickiness, only. It yields more intense and impact price adjustment after a monetary policy shock.