This study employs the use of Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA (1,1,0) model for the estimation and forecasts based on the annual data of EPF balances, which serve as a proxy to EPF sustainability, together with the yearly data of possible determinants namely investment earnings, nominal income, elderly population, life expectancy and mortality rate in Malaysia for the 1960 – 2010 and 2010 - 2014 periods, respectively. Amid a negative sentiment and conceivably bleak outlook on the long term EPF inadequacy to provide adequate incomes to elderly persons, the prognosis of this study instead reveals otherwise and is found to be in support for the long term prospect and sustainability of the EPF. With necessary improvements are underway to strengthen the performance of the administered EPF system, it is likely to believe that the EPF organization is committed to promoting its product as a more inclusive and equitable scheme in Malaysia.
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The topic of EPF sustainability has gained considerable attentions among the governments worldwide. In the wake of growing elderly population, improving life expectancy and declining mortality rate particularly in Malaysia over the years, concerns arise on the EPF’s failure to fully commit the retirement incomes provision to the elderly population in the post-retirement periods. Specifically, this paper examines the short run and long run relationships between EPF balances and its determinants; investment earnings, nominal income, elderly population, life expectancy and mortality rate from 1960 to 2014. Of the findings, elderly population and mortality rate are unfolded to represent key deterrents of EPF balances, which acts as the proxy for the EPF sustainability, both in the short run and long run cycles. Thus, new improvements to the existing EPF scheme are recommended as means to alleviate the poverty problems among the elderly population besides addressing other economic and social fronts.
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Over the years, Malaysia has progressively accelerated its economic development, thanks to the adherence to high rates of domestic savings and investment. Of which, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) is one of the schemes that caters for the private sector workers. Specifically, this paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and EPF investment in Malaysia for the period of 1970 – 2014. The model, which is derived from the Cobb-Douglas production function, is tested by econometric techniques; Johansen cointegration and Granger causality within VECM. While the EPF investment is proven statistically insignificant in the short run, there is evidence of the saving/investment-led-growth hypothesis being the long run phenomenon for Malaysia. In view of the possible over-dependence on investment funds in generalgoing forward, the policy makers are recommended to reinforce the government’s initiative in facilitating more business ventures as means to attract incoming funds, including FDI flows, towards streaming into the country.
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