Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Populacja Krakowa w kontekście długofalowych procesów demograficznych na przełomie XIX i XX wieku

100%

Ogórek B.

Przeszłość Demograficzna Polski

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2013

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tom 32

25 - 87

EN

The main aim of the study is to carefully examine population trends occurring among the residents of Cracow between the late 19th and the early 20th century, and to place them within a broader context of a demographic transition model. The author has analysed a range of population and vital statistics, using general (crude rates) and synthetic (life expectancy, TFR) demographic measures. The results show a remarkable speed of demographic change within the urban population of Central Europe. The onset of mortality decline can be dated as far as the late 1870s, while fertility shows symptoms of a downward trend from the 1900s. In addition, the author demonstrates that the significant rise in life expectancy at birth (which more than doubled between 1880 and 1931) cannot be attributed only to an improvement of medical services or the city’s infrastructure. At the same time deep changes in fertility trends during the analysed period were a result of at least two phenomena. While in the pre-World War I era the fall in the number of children born to a woman was caused mainly by the so-called Malthusian mechanisms, including rising age at marriage and increased celibacy rates, in the inter-war period there is serious evidence of conscious and effective use of contraception.

2

Płodność populacji II Rzeczypospolitej. Badanie przy użyciu indeksów Princeton European Fertility Project

100%

Ogórek B.

Roczniki Dziejów Społecznych i Gospodarczych

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2012

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tom 72

EN

The Fertility of the Population of the Second Polish Republic. Research using the Princeton European Fertility Project Indices(Summary)An analysis carried out of the fertility of Polish society in the interwar period uses the methodology of the European Fertility Project (EFP), which is based on data relating to the number of births and the population structure in a given period, thus making it possible to assess the disparity between fertility in the society under examination and the theoretical maximum fertility. From the studies presented, it can be concluded unambiguously that in 1931 there were symptoms of a conscious reduction in marital fertility in the population, and therefore that the inhabitants of a major part of the country perceived limiting the number of its offspring as being beneficial and had at its disposal the means to effectively achieve this goal.

3

Galicia’s Escape from the Malthusian Trap. A Long and Short-Term Analysis of the Demographic Response to Economic Conditions in the Population of Galicia 1819–1913

100%

Ogórek B.

Roczniki Dziejów Społecznych i Gospodarczych

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2015

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tom 75

EN

Galicia’s escape from the Malthusian trap. A long and short-term analysis of demographic response to the economic conditions in the population of Galicia 1819–1913 (Summary)The purpose of the article is to analyze Malthusian mechanisms to be found in operation in the population of Galicia in the years 1819–1913. Relying on published sources which record both the condition and the natural movement of the Galician population, as well as price movements in key food staples on the Lwów and Kraków markets, the author has examined the relationship between the population’s economic conditions and demographic trends in the long and short-term. The analysis of the long-term relationships shows that it was not until the last decades of the nineteenth century that Galicia set itself free from Malthusian mechanisms. At that time, the demographic situation began to improve for the fi rst time. The improvement came despite some adverse economic phenomena such as falling wages and rising prices. The author points to a number of causes of this situation: the advancement in agricultural production, mass emigration and some institutional changes. The analysis of short-term relationships shows that the nineteenth-century Galicia – although it was lagging behind the countries of Western Europe in terms of GDP per capita, the percentage of those who were literate, or the industrialization processes – was affected by the operation of Malthusian mechanisms to only a slightly greater extent than the western part of the Old Continent. The comparison of the Galician population’s demographic response to an increase in the staple food prices with the way in which the population of the whole of Austria reacted to this increase justifies the conclusion that, with regard to this response, the inhabitants of Galicia were doing as well as the people inhabiting the whole of Cisleithania. This of course does not mean that living standards in Galicia were similar to those typifying Austria or Western Europe, but it does allow one to contest the opinion that the Galician population was considerably vulnerable/prone to economic crises. In defiance of the myth of “Galician misery”, one can say that there actually existed no positive (that is, those bound up with the death rate) constraints on the growth of the Galician population in the period of autonomy.

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Piśmienność mieszkańców Krakowa w pierwszej połowie XIX wieku. Uwarunkowania demograficzne i społeczno-gospodarcze

100%

Ogórek B.

Przeszłość Demograficzna Polski

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2018

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tom 40

141-170

EN

The paper aims to find levels of literacy and its demographic and socio-economic determinants among spouses marrying in two Roman Catholic parishes in the city of Cracow during the first half of the 19th century. The results are relevant for the debate on the formation of human capital and standard of living as well as on the efficiency of the education system in the city during the late preindustrial period. The study uses the civil registers from two parishes – St. Florian (1810–1846) and the Holy Cross (1810–1848). Methods include the traditional approach, namely the Maggiolo method, which relates the ability to sign the marriage act to literacy level, as well as descriptive statistics. In addition, a logistic regression model is constructed to find the associations between a range of variables: demographic (age, birth year, sex, civil status), socio-economic (occupation sector (HISCO), occupational status, vital status of parents) and geographic (place of birth, place of residence), and their statistical significance. The results confirm the rather intuitive determinants of literacy, i.e. a strong determination based on sex, age, occupation, status and place of origin. Although the difference between the percentage of men and women able to sign their name was of a reasonable level (25% and 17% accordingly), the odds of being able to sign were 2.5 times higher for men compared to women when controlled for other covariates. This situation reflects the relatively low economic position of women in Cracow during that time. A very strong stratification of literacy is connected to both occupational sector and status. While professional and technical workers were almost universally literate (as well as administrative and managerial workers and clerks), the group of agricultural workers and labourers showed high levels of illiteracy. Regardless of the sector, qualifications mattered in the ability to write, as highly-qualified workers had over twice the likelihood of being able to sign their name on their marriage certificate than the mid-qualified group. Finally, immigrants coming from the area around the city showed significantly lower literacy levels than those born and residing in Cracow. A comparison with literacy levels found by other researchers for Poland in the early modern period leads to the hypothesis that education levels suffered from the 18th-century crisis. This finding is reinforced by a comparison of literacy in Cracow with other European cities. Finally, the study shows that literacy levels in Cracow are in accordance with low school attendance rates for the time period.

PL

Celem artykułu jest próba ustalenia odsetka ludności piśmiennej wśród osób zawierających śluby w dwóch parafiach miasta Krakowa w pierwszej połowie XIX wieku oraz prześledzenie demograficznych i społeczno-gospodarczych determinant umiejętności czytania i pisania. Uzyskane wyniki niosą ze sobą informację na temat kształtowania się kapitału ludzkiego oraz standardu życia w badanym okresie, a także rzucają światło na efektywność ówczesnego systemu edukacji. W badaniu wykorzystano przede wszystkim akta stanu cywilnego, a konkretnie akta małżeństw dla obszaru dwu krakowskich parafii, a mianowicie Parafii Rzymskokatolickiej św. Floriana na Kleparzu (z lat 1810–1846) oraz Parafii Rzymskokatolickiej św. Krzyża (z lat 1810–1848). W pierwszej kolejności zastosowano tzw. metodę Maggiolo, czyli bezpośrednie przełożenie odsetka osób potrafiących podpisać akt na poziom piśmienności. Ze względu na potencjalne współzależności między zmiennymi badanie rozwinięto o wykorzystanie modelu regresji logistycznej. Wyniki badania potwierdzają intuicyjnie przyjmowane uwarunkowania piśmienności. Zaznacza się tu wysoka przewaga piśmienności mężczyzn nad kobietami, a także osób młodszych i później urodzonych nad starszymi. Bardzo wyraźna jest również gradacja branżowa i zawodowa posiadania umiejętności podpisania się. Niemal powszechna piśmienność wśród urzędników, zarządców i przedstawicieli wolnych zawodów wyraźnie kontrastuje z wysokimi poziomami analfabetyzmu wśród chłopów i wyrobników. Mimo zróżnicowania branżowego istotne znaczenie dla piśmienności miał status zawodowy, tak więc pracownicy o wysokich kwalifikacjach (niezależnie od branży) mieli wyższe szanse dysponowania tą umiejętnością aniżeli pracownicy niewykwalifikowani. Ponadto imigranci z najbliższych okolic miasta wykazywali znacznie niższe poziomy piśmienności, aniżeli osoby urodzone i zamieszkałe w Krakowie. Porównanie uzyskanych wyników z poziomami piśmienności stwierdzonymi przez innych badaczy dla epoki nowożytnej prowadzi do hipotezy, iż w XVIII wieku nastąpił regres edukacyjny. Wniosek ten znajduje potwierdzenie w porównaniach Krakowa z miastami Europy Zachodniej. Wreszcie, oznaczone w analizie poziomy piśmienności znajdują potwierdzenie w niskich poziomach skolaryzacji, zarówno u schyłku I Rzeczypospolitej, jak i w okresie Rzeczpospolitej Krakowskiej.

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Wpływ I wojny światowej na stan i strukturę ludności miasta Krakowa. Badanie przy użyciu wariantowych projekcji demograficznych

100%

Ogórek B.

Przeszłość Demograficzna Polski

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2015

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tom 37

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nr 2

159-178

EN

The article assesses the effects of the First World War on the population of Cracow, visible in the state and structure of the town’s population. The collected statistical materials (mainly the publications of the City’s Statistical Office) have been used to carry out an annual projection of the size and structure of the city’s population, separately for each sex for the years 1890–1921. The procedure, sometimes called cohort-component method population projection, is based on sectional (periodical) tables of mortality. In that way four projections have been constructed, which allows to separately assess the impact of the war mortality and reproduction on the state and structure of the population and to visualise a hypothetical growth of the city’s population, which would have taken place if the war had not broken out. Thanks to that it is possible to state that the potential population losses of Cracow in 1921 amounted to 8.45% of the 1910 population. Within those losses 7% were civil losses, and only 1.45% were the killed and the missing. The impact of the war on the population was much stronger through intensified mortality, and not through limited reproduction. The ratio between losses caused by changes in mortality and reproduction for the population of Cracow was 70:30. The use of demographic projections has also allowed to identify populational groups especially prone to the increased war mortality. Both in women and in men the biggest part of civil victims of the war were children and youngsters aged 3 to 19 years old and people over 50 years old. The war situation influenced also the values of the synthetic demographic indicators. The life expectancy for women decreased by 25% in 1918 (the record year), and the overall reproduction rate by 47%. In addition to strictly research conclusions, the article has a methodological value, as it shows how the use of demographic projections allows to present the effects of war in the sphere of the population.

6

Model Bourgeois-Pichata w badaniach demograficzno-historycznych

100%

Ogórek B.

Przeszłość Demograficzna Polski

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2016

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tom 38

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nr 38, 2016, nr 4

135-146

PL

Celem artykułu jest zwięzły opis tzw. modelu biometrycznego umieralności niemowląt – modelu Bourgeois-Pichata, przedstawienie jego trzech najważniejszych własności oraz ukazanie procedur obliczeniowych w trzech programach komputerowych (R, Stata, Excel) prowadzących do dopasowania modelu do danych rzeczywistych. W tekście ukazano najistotniejsze prace badawcze wykorzystujące omawiany model w demografii historycznej. Jako że sam model, jak i sposoby jego wykorzystania poddawane były krytyce, w artykule podano odniesienia bibliograficzne do dalszej literatury na temat ograniczeń modelu i sytuacji szczególnych skutkujących niewiarygodnością wyników. Zawarto także propozycje wykorzystania modelu Bourgeois-Pichata w polskich badaniach demograficzno-historycznych.

EN

The article has been written in order to concisely depict the so-called biometric model of infant mortality, the Bourgeois-Pichat model, to present its three most important properties and to show the computational procedures in three computer programs (R, Stata, Excel) that lead to fitting the model to the real data. The text reveals the most important research works where the model in question was used in historical demography. As the model itself and the ways it was used were criticised, the article contains bibliographic references to further literature where it is possible to find wider information on the limitations of the model and the situations that lead to unreliable results. Last but not least the article contains proposals of using the Bourgeois-Pichat model in Polish demographic-historical research.