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IS IT WORTH REVEALING MORE? CENTRAL BANKS’ TRANSPARENCY AND ITS MEASUREMENT

100%

Szyszko M.

nr 4 (65)

7-26

This paper focuses on monetary policy transparency. Central banks’ practice in the field of communication, especially while signalling their intentions, is not reflected in most known transparency measures. The following paper presents a comparison of the best-known transparency indices and offers an extension to them that focuses on the forward-lookingness of the central bank. A more elaborate approach to signalling intentions is not covered by transparency measures developed in the pre-crisis period. Thus the purpose of this paper is methodological: developing extended transparency measures. Additionally, the application of these extensions is presented. The empirical part of the research covers the Czech Republic and Poland.

Maria Magdalena Golec, "Instytucje i usługi bankowe"

100%

Szyszko M.

nr 3 (64)

161-165

Bankowość centralna w świtle doświadczeń dekady 2007-2016. Czy jest miejsce na zmiany strategiczne?

100%

Szyszko M.

2017

nr 2(363)

169-187

Prior to the financial crisis that erupted in 2007 in the United States, monetary policy had been conducted according to theoretical (new neoclassical synthesis) and practical consensuses (Jackson Hole consensus). These consensuses were combined into the central banks’ strategic frameworks. Monetary strategy goal was established together with reaction function and communication strategy. After eruption of the crisis, the central bank mandate was augmented with the explicit support of financial stability. Most central banks gained a new responsibility – macroprudential policy. The conduct of monetary policy and macroprudential policy under one roof creates a new challenging quality. The article’s goal is to assess the redefinition of monetary policy strategy – or more broadly – central banks’ strategy in the light of their newly acknowledged mandate. Up to 2016 central banks did not present a framework of such an enlarged strategy. This situation seems to be temporary. Modern monetary policy which is still central banks’ mandate must shape economic agents’ expectations. Therefore, a state of affairs when central banks avoid a declaration on their own priorities and possible conflict of goals is dissatisfying.

CAN INFLATION FORECAST AND MONETARY POLICY PATH BE REALLY USEFUL? THE CASE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC

63%

Szyszko M. , Tura K.

nr 3

9-26

Producing and revealing inflation forecast is believed to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation expectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage, central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step of the research covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally, the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations is analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures focused on the forecast are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers the period from July 2002 – till the end of 2013. Its methodology includes qualitative analysis of decision-making of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expectations, non-parametric statistics). The results confirm the existence of interdependences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementation.