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2 Acta Geophysica

2 2013

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Projection of low flow conditions in Germany under climate change by combining three RCMs and a regional hydrological model

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Huang S. , Krysanova V. , Hattermann F. F.

Acta Geophysica

2013

tom Vol. 61, no. 1

151--193

The present study is aimed to: (a) project future low flow conditions in the five largest river basins in Germany, and (b) to account for the projections uncertainties. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was driven by different regional climate models (REMO, CCLM, and Wettreg) to simulate daily river discharg es in each study basin. The 50-year low flow was estimated for the period 1961 to 2000, and its return period was assessed for two scenario periods, 2021-2060 and 2061-2100, using the generalized extreme value distribu tion. The 50-year low flow is likely to occur more frequently in western, southern, and parts of central Ger- many after 2061, as suggested by more than or equal to 80 per cent of the model runs. The current low flow period (from August to September) may be extended until late autumn at the end of this century. The return period of 50-year deficit volume shows a similar temporal and spatial pattern of change as for the low flow, indicating slightly less severe con- ditions with lower confidence. When compared with flood projections for the same area using the same models, the severer low flows projected in this study appear more pronounced, consistent, and have lower uncertainty.

Climatological drivers of changes in flood hazard in Germany

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Hattermann F. F. , Kundzewicz Z. W. , Huang S. , Vetter T. , Gerstengarbe F.-W. , Werner P.

Acta Geophysica

2013

tom Vol. 61, no. 2

463--477

Since several destructive floods have occurred in Germany in the last decades, it is of considerable interest and relevance (e.g., when undertaking flood defense design) to take a closer look at the climatic factors driving the changes in flood hazard in Germany. Even if there also exist non-climatic factors controlling the flood hazard, the present paper demonstrates that climate change is one main driver responsible for the increasing number of floods. Increasing trends in temperature have been found to be ubiquitous in Germany, with impact on air humidity and changes in (intense) precipitation. Growing trends in flood pronecirculation pattern and heavy precipitation are significant in many regions of Germany over a multi-decade interval and this can be translated into the rise of flood hazard and flood risk.