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Verification of a certain numerical model with the real storm surge of December 1976 in the Baltic Sea

100%

Chilicka Z.

tom 19

Causes and effects of coastal dunes erosion during storm surge Axel in January 2017 on the southern Baltic Polish coast

100%

Łabuz T. A.

nr 3

67-87

The study is dedicated to researching the storm surge Axel, the largest on the South Baltic coast in the 20th and 21st centuries. This unique event resulted in a very large erosion along the whole Polish Baltic Sea coast in January 2017 (max. HSL = 1.65 m, the average for the coast 1.36 m). Storm surge effects on the coast were followed based on field observations of dune retreat and analysis of hydrodynamic and meteorological parameters of the surge and its passage through the Baltic Sea. The material of dune erosion was collected based on cross-shore profiling of almost every 1 km, along the whole Polish sand barrier coast, before and after this storm. The work also studies the parameters of smaller storm surges from the end of 2016, which caused the lowering of beaches and dune erosion. A relationship was observed between erosion, and beach height and sea level (SL). The higher the beach, the lower the erosion that occurred. The average dune toe retreat was 5.1 m, and the largest exceeded 9–19 m (max. 42 m). The most important for dune erosion was the height of run-up, beach height and shore exposition for a surge. The largest dune erosion was observed during the heaviest SL with wave run-up higher than 3.8 m above mean sea level (AMSL). Each coast section was eroded, which also caused losses in infrastructure.

Influence of water exchange between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea on storm surges in the Baltic

100%

Chilicka Z. , Kowalik Z.

tom 19

Consltruction of a numerical model of storm surges with a refined grid

84%

Chilicka Z. , Kowalik Z. , Wierzbicki Z.

tom 16

Water level fluctuations in the Odra River mouth area in relation to passages of deep low-pressure systems

84%

Wisniewski B. , Kowalewska-Kalkowska H.

tom 36

nr 1

Physical aspects of extreme storm surges and falls on the Polish coast

67%

Wisniewski B. , Wolski T.

nr (1-TI)

Extreme sea levels – storm-generated surges and falls – on the Polish coast are usually the effects of three components: the volume of water in the southern Baltic (the initial level preceding a given extreme situation), the action of tangential wind stresses in the area (wind directions: whether shore- or seaward; wind velocities; and wind action duration), and the sea surface deformation produced by deep, mesoscale baric lows moving rapidly over the southern and central Baltic that generate the so-called baric wave. Among these factors, the baric wave is particularly important for, i.e. the water cushion underneath the baric depression, moving along the actual atmospheric pressure system over the sea surface.

Zastosowanie metody kopuli do dwuwymiarowej analizy wezbrań sztormowych w profilach wodowskazowych Świnoujście i Kołobrzeg

67%

Ciupak M. , Rokiciński K.

tom R. 52 nr 4 (187)

15-34

W artykule zastosowano metod. kopuli do dwuwymiarowej analizy wezbra. sztormowych. Wezbrania sztormowe scharakteryzowano dwuwymiarow. zmienn. losow.: maksymalnym poziomem morza ponad nape.nienie w profilach wodowskazowych .winouj.cie PM.WI i Ko.obrzeg PMKOL. Proba losowa zosta.a wyznaczona na podstawie zidentyfikowanych wezbra. sztormowych wzd.u. po.udniowych wybrze.y Ba.tyku w latach 1976.2000. Celem artyku.u by.o znalezienie najlepszego dwuwymiarowego rozk.adu prawdopodobie.stwa badanej zmiennej losowej (PM.WI, PMKOL). Badaniu poddano eliptyczn. kopul. gaussowsk. i archimedesowsk. jednoparametrow. Gumela-Hougaarda. Do badania zgodno.ci kopuli z zaobserwowanymi realizacjami zmiennej losowej (PM.WI, PMKOL) u.yto wspo.czynnika korelacji rang Spearmana. Najlepsz. zgodno.. uzyskano dla kopuli Gumbela-Hougaarda �Ďs = 0,9871.

The copula method was applied to analyze 2D storm surges. Storm surges were described with 2D variable: the maximum water level above the filling level at Świnoujście PMŚWI and at Kołobrzeg PMKOL. The identified storm surges along of southern Baltic coasts in the period 1976–2000 were used to set the random sample. The aim of this paper is to find the best fit 2D probability distribution of the variable (PMŚWI, PMKOL). Two copula functions: elliptical Gaussian and Archimedean Gumbel-Hougaard copula were investigated. To verify copula conformity with the data observed the non-parametric dependence measure such as Spearman’s ńs was used. The best conformity was recorded for Gumbel-Hougaard copula ńs = 0,9871.

Analysis and forecast of long-term sea level changes along the Polish Baltic Sea coast. Part I. Annual sea level maxima

67%

Wroblewski A.

tom 33