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Długoterminowa analiza scenariuszy miksu energetycznego na tle rozwoju odnawialnych źródeł energii

100%

Kochanowska K. , Przygrodzki M.

tom nr 10

495--505

W artykule przeprowadzono syntezę wybranych prognoz miksów energetycznych oraz przedstawiono spojrzenie na przyszłą cenę energii elektrycznej budowaną na podstawie analizowanych prognoz długoterminowych. Wyróżnianym elementem kształtującym staje się udział odnawialnych źródeł energii. Artykuł składa się z trzech części. W pierwszej części przedstawiono pojęcie miksu energetycznego wraz z czynnikami, które na niego wpływają. Druga część artykułu poświęcona jest analizie wybranych dokumentów zawierających długoterminową prognozę miksu energetycznego, a także przyszłej ceny energii. Analizie poddane zostały założenia oraz metodyki prowadzenia prognoz. W końcowej części przeprowadzono syntezę wyników prognoz oraz dokonano porównania cen energii na tle rozwoju źródeł odnawialnych.

Carried out is the synthesis of chosen energy mix prognoses and presented is a view on the future price of electric energy built on the basis of the available long-term prognoses while participation of renewable energy sources becomes here the distinguished shaping element. The article consists of three parts. In the first one the notion of energy mix is presented together with factors that affect it. The second part is dedicated to the analysis of selected documents containing the prognosis of a long-term energy mix and a future price of the energy. Analysed are assumptions and methodologies of conducting the prognoses. In the last part a synthesis of the prognoses' results is carried out and made is a comparison of energy prices against the background of renewable energy sources development.

Causes of periodical rainfall distribution and long-term forecast of precipitation for Lankaran, Azerbaijan

100%

Mammadov A. , Rajabov R. , Casanova N.

2018

tom Vol. 6, Iss. 2

39--43

Irregular rainfall distribution is receiving considerable attention. The amount of rainfall for one region can account for 500-600 mm, sometimes 1000 mm. For example, in the year 1985, Zagtala in Azerbaijan received 716 mm of rainfall, while in 1988, 2004 and 2008 - 1151, 1306 and 661 mm, respectively, were measured. In Lankaran 2061 mm were measured in 1982 and 470 mm in 1999. Generally, rainfall distribution differs across the Republic of Azerbaijan. In this study, the physical side of such variations was clarified. In relation to that, the movement speed of the atmosphere in regard of the rotation of the Earth was analyzed, showing that the difference in rainfall distribution, according to the time structure, is connected to the direction change of the atmospheric movement. Generally, the reasons for atmospheric movements cannot be identified as the rotation movement of the earth, mainly because both environments show different activities. While the processes happening in the atmosphere often change, influenced by the pressure gradient, the rotation movement of the earth is more stationary. We also evaluated the rainfall forecast method for the region Lankaran. Taking into account its simplicity, the Shuster method was used. Observation data was divided into stationary and casual elements. Selection of periodicals was determined by separation of long term meteorological data into harmonic functions. By accepting the variation, the coefficient casual item was added.

Modeling the earthquake occurrence with time‑dependent processes: a brief review

80%

Mangira O. , Kourouklas C. , Chorozoglou D. , Iliopoulos A. , Papadimitriou E.

tom Vol. 67, no. 3

739--752

The complexity of seismogenesis tantalizes the scientific community for understanding the earthquake process and its underlying mechanisms and consequently, precise earthquake forecasting, although a realistic target, is yet far from being a practice. Therefore, seismic hazard assessment studies are focused on estimating the probabilities of earthquake occurrence. For a more precise representation of seismicity-regarding time, space and magnitude stochastic modeling is engaged. The candidate models deal with either a single fault or fault segment, or a broader area, leading to fault-based or seismicitybased models, respectively. One important factor in stochastic model development is the time scale, depending upon the target earthquakes. In the case of strong earthquakes, the interevent times between successive events are relatively large, whereas, if we are interested in triggering and the probability of an event to occur in a small time increment then a family of short-term models is available. The basic time-dependent models that can be applied toward earthquake forecasting are briefly described in this review paper.