Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

Nowa wersja platformy, zawierająca wyłącznie zasoby pełnotekstowe, jest już dostępna.
Przejdź na https://bibliotekanauki.pl

Ograniczanie wyników

Znaleziono wyników: 3

Liczba wyników na stronie

Wyniki wyszukiwania

Wyszukiwano:
w słowach kluczowych: price forecast

Sortuj według:

Ogranicz wyniki do:

The application of trend estimation model in predicting the average selling price of timber

100%

Adamowicz K. , Górna A.

tom vol. 63, nr 206

147--159

The article analyzes the possibility of adopting trend estimation model to predict the average selling price of timber (CGUS). The study used information about the average selling prices of timber in chosen periods (2006-2017). The data concerning the actual CGUS was used to create a trend estimation model. The models and CGUS predictions were conducted based on three different time series encompassing 5-year periods. The predicted (CGUS) trend estimation in particular years was requested based on extrapolation, which exceeded the accepted set of information used in the study to create a trend estimation model. On the basis of the conducted study it was ascertained that the method of modeling linear trend estimation should be adopted in the price prediction process. The error assessment with which the linear function formulas are burdened, it was noticed that the value of the coefficient of residual variation was between 4.40% and 7.82%. It was also noticed that the linear modeling of CGUS trend estimation, despite unfavorable values of coefficient of determination and convergence, to some extent, can be viewed as an assistance tool in the decisionmaking process in the scope of predicting the height of the analyzed price. This view was supported by the achieved predictions which were verified with the actual prices of timber. The price difference between the actual and the predicted one was between -1.59 PLN to 2.27 PLN, and in relative terms the predictive error was between 0.83 to 1.15%. In our opinion the presented research process can constitute a reference point as a comparative element to verify the results for other, new price prediction models. The process of modeling timber prices should be extended by other predicators which are connected with forest market chain.

Short-term management of hydro-power systems based on uncertainty model in electricity markets

100%

Firouz M. H. , Ghadimi N.

2015

tom Vol. 95, nr 4

265--272

There are several methods for generating scenarios in stochastic programming. With extensive historical data records, one possibility is to represent the probability distribution of the uncertain data using a statistical model suitable for sampling. This method is especially useful for handling uncertain data that develops over time by means of time series analysis. In this paper a time series model relevant to the short-term management of hydropower systems is proposed. This further illustrates the abilities of the models to capture developments in uncertain data over time. To demonstrate the validity of this model, results from the Nordic power exchange Nord Poland a Norwegian power plant are presented.

Prognozy cen węgla koksowego do 2010 roku

86%

Ozga-Blaschke U. , Grudziński Z.

tom T. 22, z. 1s

23-33

W artykule przedstawiono krótkoterminową prognozę cen węgla koksowego typu hard w horyzoncie do 2010 roku. Prognozę oparto na analizie tendencji cenowych na przykładzie zmian cen kontraktowych FOB węgla australijskiego typu hard w latach 1980-2005 oraz na przewidywanych trendach rozwoju rynków stali i węgla koksowego w świecie. Artykuł zawiera również krótką charakterystykę aktualnej sytuacji rynkowej oraz prezentuje światowe prognozy cen węgli koksowych publikowane przez ekspertów związanych z branżą surowców metalurgicznych.

Paper presents short-term forecast (up to 2010) of hard coking coal FOB prices. The forecast was based on analysis of trends of Australian FOB coking coal contractual price variation in 1980-2005 and on expected tendency development of steel and coking coal markets in the world. Paper analyses also current state of the market and presents results of recently published price forecasts developed by experts of metallurgical industry.