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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE VISEGRAD COUNTRIES FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE

100%

Stavarek D.

nr 1

59-74

The seriousness of problems stemming from macroeconomic imbalances in the EU and particularly in the euro area contributed to introduction of the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure which also includes a scoreboard of 11 indicators. The results of the scoreboard serve as an alert mechanism and are interpreted from an economic perspective with a view to identifying developments in the member states that may point to a risk of imbalances. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the risk of imbalances in the Visegrad countries using selected indicators from the scoreboard. Furthermore, the author extends the existing scoreboard methodology of absolute indicators by implementation of relative indices that are more valuable for effectiveness of the policy making process. The results suggest that the only Visegrad country with a significant risk of imbalances is Hungary. However, the relative indicators revealed a sign of possible imbalances also in the Czech Republic and Poland.

Inicjatywy legislacyjne i polityczne w odniesieniu do funkcjonowania Unii Europejskiej

88%

Zombirt J.

nr 1(1)

95-116

During the debt crisis in Europe as well as during the global financial crisis it became clear that existing solutions on economic governance were highly unsatisfactory. After numerous measures having rather uncoordinated features and executed in an ad hoc manner, even in the particular member states, the EU has started to examine the framework of an economic governance in Europe. The intention of this text is to present, in the chronological order, measures having been adopted in the last three – four years. We start with a description of so called Sixpact consisting of five regulations and one directive. These legal acts aim to strengthen discipline concerning fiscal policies not only in the eurozone but also in all the remaining member states of the EU. They also cover measures on counteracting excessive macroeconomic imbalances. European semester constitutes a very important part of the Sixpact that should foster the co-ordination of the economic governance in the EU. Next, a Treaty on Stability, Co-ordination and Economic Governance has been detailed. It has been indicated that TSCG will not be binding (similarly as the Euro Plus Pact) for all the member states. Finally, the newest European project, so called Twopack, has been described. Twopack significantly interferes into procedures of forming national budgets in the eurozone member states. The article does not provide for the European Stability Mechanism because its description would largely surpass the allowed length of the text.

German trade balance surpluses – cause or effect of macroeconomic instability in Europe?

63%

Feldmeier G.

tom nr 89

15--28

In the course of the recent economic crises in various EU member countries current account balances are in the focus of political and economic debates next to discussions about public budget deficits and total national indebtedness. While the focus there is traditionally in an analysis of the causes and negative consequences of twin deficits of high public debt and negative trade balances, economies with persistent trade balance surpluses are also critically examined and blamed for being responsible for global financial and national debt crises. Thus high German trade balance surpluses are expected to be a main reason for macroeconomic imbalances within the EMU countries. However, a closer look at the target regions of German exports within this perspective modifies this assumption, also the fact that there is a strong correlation in between strong export surpluses in Germany's trade balance and positive effects for European partner countries in the form of imported intermediate input supplies from them. Another limitation of the criticism of the German trade balance surpluses results from a supply-side consideration of global export industries. According to this Germany with its remaining high share of manufacturing industry in GDP achieves traditional trade balance surpluses, whereas southern European countries with a lower share of production industry tend to be more trade balance deficit countries. These facts suggest that a politically constrained reduction of German trade surpluses and a subsequently weakening of the German economy hardly favor trade deficit countries, but would rather cause a collateral damage for global economic development.