Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

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Analiza zależności pomiędzy liczbą miejsc pracy w Stanach Zjednoczonych a zmiennością kursu pary EUR/USD

100%

Podgórski K.

MIND Journal

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2020

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nr 10

1-12

EN

The publication of data on the change in the number of jobs in the American economy causes high volatility on the currency market. The article is part of the subject of forecasting courses based on macroeconomic data. The first part of the article presents theoretical issues related to the non-agricultural payrolls indicator and the EUR/USD currency pair. The second chapter of the work presents current research results on the impact of data on the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector in the USA on the direction and value of changes in the exchange rate of the EUR/USD pair. The last empirical part of the work presents the results of studies on the relationship between deviations from forecasts of data on the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector in the USA and the direction and value of changes in the exchange rate of the EUR/USD pair. The aim of the publication is to answer the question of whether there is a strong linear relationship between the deviations from the forecasts for the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector in the US and EUR/USD rate increases over periods of 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour and 4 hours after the publication of these data. On the basis of the conducted research, the hypothesis that the above-mentioned dependence was found was rejected. At each of the analyzed time intervals, the Spearman rank correlation index took values from 0.02 to 0.18.

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The long-run relationship between the stock market and main macroeconomic variables in Poland

100%

Czapkiewicz M. , Stachowicz M.

Managerial Economics

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2016

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tom Vol. 17, no. 1

7--20

EN

The investigation concerns the problem of whether some macroeconomic variables and the EUR/PLN exchange rate might affect the performance of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The answer to this question can be obtained from a cointegration analysis. The advantage of testing for cointegration is the identification of a stable long-run relationship between the stock price index, some macroeconomic variables, and the EUR/PLN exchange rate, which can be implemented using various cointegration methodologies. Analysis of the response of one variable to an impulse of another variable is also performed to show the importance of a given variable in a system.

3

The long-run relationship between the stock market and main macroeconomic variables in Poland

100%

Czapkiewicz A. , Stachowicz M.

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tom 17

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nr 1

7-20

EN

The investigation concerns the problem of whether some macroeconomic variables and the EUR/PLN exchange rate might affect the performance of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The answer to this question can be obtained from a cointegration analysis. The advantage of testing for cointegration is the identification of a stable long-run relationship between the stock price index, some macroeconomic variables, and the EUR/PLN exchange rate, which can be implemented using various cointegration methodologies. Analysis of the response of one variable to an impulse of another variable is also performed to show the importance of a given variable in a system.

4

Rynek akcji jako barometr przyszłego stanu aktywności gospodarczej na przykładzie krajów G-7

75%

Łon E.

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tom 23

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nr 2 (87)

37-44

PL

W artykule badano powiązania rynku akcji z wybranymi zmiennymi makroekonomicznymi, takimi jak PKB, konsumpcja prywatna, inwestycje i inflacja. Badania prowadzono na grupie krajów G-7. Okazało się, iż rynki akcji grupy krajów G-7 są stosunkowo silnymi barometrami przyszłego stanu gospodarki. Zanotowano bowiem silną korelację dodatnią między stopą zwrotu z indeksu giełdowego w roku T a realnym tempem PKB, konsumpcją prywatną i inwestycjami w roku T+1. Uczestnicy rynku akcji krajów grupy G-7 starają się konfrontować rzeczywistość z oczekiwaniami. Pozytywnie przez nich przyjmowane są dane o lepszej od oczekiwanej zmianie wzrostu gospodarczego. Z zadowoleniem przyjmują oni także niespodziewany spadek inflacji.

EN

The article examines the relationship between stock market and the selected macroeconomic variables such as GDP, private consumption, investment and inflation. The research was conducted on a group of G-7 countries. It turned out that the stock markets of the G-7 group are relatively strong barometers of the future state of the economy. A strong positive correlation was observed between the rate of return on the stock exchange index in the year T, and real GDP rate, private consumption and investment in the year T+1. Participants of the G-7 stock market are trying to confront reality with expectations. They welcome data on better than expected change in economic growth. Investors also get high returns on shares in the year of an unexpected fall in inflation.

5

Indeksy branżowe notowane na GPW w Warszawie jako barometry polskiej gospodarki

75%

Łon E.

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tom 23

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nr 3 (88)

79-88

PL

W artykule badano, czy rynek akcji może być barometrem przyszłego stanu aktywności gospodarczej. Badanie przeprowadzono na przykładzie wybranych indeksów branżowych notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie. Okazało się, że zachodzi stosunkowo silny dodatni związek między stopą zwrotu z Indeksu Cenowego w roku T a realnym tempem zmian PKB i jego elementów składowych (konsumpcją i inwestycjami) w roku T+1. Można powiedzieć, iż indeks ten jest dobrym barometrem polskiego stanu gospodarki. Podobne związki zaobserwowano pomiędzy stopą zwrotu z wybranych indeksów branżowych w roku T a realnym tempem zmian PKB w roku T+1. Okazało się, iż indeksy branżowe również są dobrym barometrem polskiego stanu gospodarki.

EN

The article examines whether stock market could be a barometer of the future state of economic activity. The study was conducted on the example of selected industry indices listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. It showed that there is a relatively strong positive relationship between the rate of return on the Price Index in the year T and the real rate of change in GDP and its components (consumption and investments) in the year T+1. It can be said that this index is a good barometer of the Polish economy. Similar relationships were observed between the rate of return on selected industry indices in the year T and the real rate of changes in GDP in the year T+1. Thus, it turned out that industry indices are also a good barometer of the Polish economy.