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Political and socioeconomic transformation has significantly influenced demographic processes in Central and East Europe. This was mainly noticeable in behaviours and attitudes concerning forming and developing of families. With regard to the aforementioned behaviours, the populations of analysed countries have adopted to new conditions very quickly, and the demographic parameters have reached values that were almost identical as those in West Europe. The situation developed completely differently in the case of mortality and life expectancy. Differences between Central and East Europe, and West European countries, which were already visible at the beginning of 1990's, have been eliminated considerably slower. Even though, one can observe favourable transformations in life expectancy and the distribution of death causes in the Central and Eastern European countries. Those changes are especially apparent in countries which became members of the European Union in 2004.
EN
Not only has the quantity (i.e. in terms of the extension of the duration of life) become the aim of action on the health plane, but also the qualitative, or extending the duration of lifein good health, which is not accompanied by disability and life activity limitations due to health. To estimate changes in health status of the population, implemented health programs and medical care needed new health measures. Meters beyond the negative indicators on mortality and life expectancy, but also including other dimensions of health status and quality of life related to health. This group of measures is called summary measures of population health and is divided into two main parts: the measure of the health expectancies and measures of health gap. The aim of the article is a presentation and use of selected health summary measures for estimating life expectancy in good health of Polish population against the background of the population of the European Union countries. Data from the Central Statistical Office and the European Statistical System as well as database and publications prepared by the World Health Organization and the United Nations will be a base of empirical analysis.
EN
The relationship between the public health status and income inequality has been taken into consideration in the last two decades. One of the important questions in this regard is that whether the changes in income inequality will lead to changes in health indicators or not. To answer this question, life expectancy is used as a health indicator and the Gini coefficient is used as an income inequality indicator. In this study, the relationship between income inequality and the public health has been investigated by panel data in Eviews software during 2000–2011 in 65 low-and middle-income countries. By using panel data and considering fixed effects and heterogeneity of sections, the relationship between income inequality and public health status is a significant negative relationship.
EN
In this article we investigate the latest developments on life expectancy modeling. We review some mortality projection stochastic models and their assumptions, and assess their impact on projections of future life expectancy for selected countries in the EU. More specifically, using the age- and sex-specific data of 20 countries, we compare the point projection accuracy and bias of six principal component methods for the projection of mortality rates and life expectancy. The six methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step projection errors, the Renshaw and Haberman method provides the most accurate point projections of male mortality rates and the method is the least biased. The Quadratic CBD model with the cohort effects method performs the best for female mortality. While all methods rather underestimate variability in mortality rates and life expectancy, the Renshaw and Haberman method is the most accurate.
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Content available remote Insurance Against Longevity Risk in a Pension System the Case Study of Poland
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Life expectancy has been rapidly increasing and remains uncertain in all OECD countries, including Poland. One of the many economic and social consequences of this process is the increase of the longevity risk in social security systems. This article focuses on the issues of managing longevity risk in the pension system in Poland, in particular - the construction of public and supplementary pension systems and its ability to adapt to the challenges associated with longevity risk. Particular attention has been paid to the analysis of public structures and supplementary pension schemes in the phase of payment of benefits (decumulation). The research work, of which the results are presented in the article, is based on literature studies, comparative analysis, statistical analysis; as well as descriptive and explanatory methods. Also, a model of the two stages of pension risk created by T. Szumlicz has been used. The author argues that both the public pension systems as well as the supplementary pension schemes in Poland do not secure adequate protection against the risk of longevity. While in the public retirement system, the aggregate longevity risk exists, and the participants of additional pension systems are exposed to individual longevity risk. The limitation of these risks requires significant structural changes both in the public and in the additional pension schemes in Poland.
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Content available Selected determinants of demographic safety
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The article presents, in a simplified manner, selected theories of population to explain the current trends of population development in Poland and throughout the world. The aim of the article is to present the demographic threats that have emerged in the last eighty years. Prognosticated age structures have also been predicted. Significant differences between the structure of the population now and the future have been indicated, particularly regarding the ageing of the population. Against the background of global transformations analyzes of changes in Poland have been conducted. The comparison shows that changes in Poland are highly analogous to transformations around the world, such as declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. These changes cause ageing of the population, which could result in the collapse of the functioning of the labor market and the pension system as it currently exists.
PL
W prezentowanym artykule przedstawiono w uproszczony sposób wybrane teorie ludnościowe, aby na ich gruncie wyjaśnić aktualne tendencje rozwoju ludności w Polsce i na świecie. Celem artykułu jest prezentacja zagrożeń demograficznych, które pojawiły się w ostatnich osiemdziesięciu latach. Analizowano też prognozowane struktury wieku. Wskazano na istotne różnice w strukturze ludności obecnie oraz w przyszłości, szczególnie na procesy starzenia się ludności. Na tle przemian światowych dokonano analizy sytuacji w Polsce. Porównanie wskazuje na to, że przemiany w Polsce mają analogiczny przebieg jak te dokonujące się na całym świecie, a są to: zmniejszająca się liczba urodzeń i wydłużające się przeciętne trwanie życia. Zmiany te powodują starzenie się ludności, co może doprowadzić do załamania się rynku pracy i funkcjonującego systemu emerytalnego.
EN
INTRODUCTION: Currently, increasingly more genetic variants with an influence on longevity are being sought. One of these is the SIRT1 gene which codes proteins called sirtuins. Regulating transcription, maintaining genomic stability and affecting carbohydrate-lipid metabolism, sirtuins are thought to be longevity enzymes. AIM OF THE STUDY: The aim of the study is to demonstrate the potential relationship between rs2273773 and rs7895833 SIRT1 gene polymorphisms and longevity in the context of metabolic disorders. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study encompassed a total of 448 consecutive patients from Southern Poland. The subjects were divided into 2 groups based on age and metabolic disorders. Genotyping of SIRT1 gene polymorphisms was performed using fluorescence-labelled probes and ready-to-use single nucleotide polymorphism determination sets - the TaqMan Pre-designed SNP Genotyping Assay (Applied Biosystems). The Statistica 9.0 program was used for statistical computations. RESULTS: In the case of the rs2273773 polymorphism, the prevalence of the TT genotype in the study group was 86.93%, CT 13.07%, CC 0.00%, and TT 91.19%, CT 8.47%, CC 0.34% in the control group. In the case of the rs7895833 polymorphism, the distribution of genotypes in the study group was as follows: AA 67.32%, AG 28.76%, GG 3.92%, and AA 68.47%, AG 28.47% GG 3.05% in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: No relationship was demonstrated between SIRT1 gene polymorphisms and life expectancy in the Upper Silesian residents.
PL
WSTĘP: Obecnie coraz częściej poszukuje się różnych wariantów genetycznych mających wpływ na długowieczność. Jednym z nich jest gen SIRT1, który koduje białka zwane sirtuinami. Sirtuiny, działając poprzez regulację tran-skrypcji, utrzymywanie stabilności genomu i wpływ na metabolizm węglowodanowo-lipidowy, są uważane za enzymy długowieczności. CEL PRACY: Celem pracy było wykazanie potencjalnego związku między polimorfizmami rs2273773 i rs7895833 genu SIRT1 a długowiecznością w kontekście zaburzeń metabolicznych. MATERIAŁ I METODY: Badaniem objęto łącznie kolejnych 448 pacjentów z rejonu Polski południowej. Badanych podzielono na 2 grupy na podstawie ich wieku i zaburzeń metabolicznych. Genotypowanie polimorfizmów genu SIRT1 przeprowadzono z wykorzystaniem znakowanych fluorescencyjnie sond, używając gotowych zestawów do oznaczania polimorfizmu pojedynczego nukleotydu – TaqMan Pre-designed SNP Genotyping Assay (Applied Bio-systems). Do obliczeń poszczególnych parametrów w ujęciu statystycznym zastosowano program Statistica 9.0. WYNIKI: W grupie badanej w obrębie polimorfizmu rs 2273773 częstość występowania genotypu TT wyniosła 86,93%, CT 13,07%, CC 0,00%, natomiast w grupie kontrolnej TT była równa 91,19%, CT 8,47%, CC 0,34%. W obrębie polimorfizmu rs 7895833 w grupie badanej rozkład genotypów przedstawiał się następująco: AA 67,32%, AG 28,76%, GG 3,92%, natomiast w grupie kontrolnej AA wynosił 68,47%, AG 28,47%, GG 3,05%. WNIOSKI: Nie wykazano związku między polimorfizmami genu SIRT1 a wydłużeniem życia u osób zamieszkujących teren Górnego Śląska.
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Content available Lifestyle versus a Person’s Life Span
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Numerous studies indicate that a person's lifestyle has a positive impact on their health. However, in spite of the predominant anti-health lifestyle, the average length of life in the past few decades has increased. What is the relation between a lifestyle and life expectancy? Does the lifestyle affect human life span? Epidemiological and prospective-retrospective studies were used to evaluate a 20-year long population-based experiment, which involved in-depth studies, analyses and evaluations of three related families who resided in the same community, had the same education level, and the same period of socialization and tradition. To evaluate the collected research material, the authors used their own: Scale for evaluating nutrition habits; Criteria to assess health behaviours of subjects; Criteria for diet assessment. The studied families led a similar lifestyle, with prevalence of anti-health behaviours. Theoretically, subjects should live a similar number of years. However, the length of their lives varied. Members of families with higher number of anti-health factors lived, in fact, longer. The authors confirmed the hypothesis that the lifestyle of the examined families was an important contributor to their health, but certainly it was not the only factor to determine their life expectancy. The length of lives of the examined family members varied despite a similar lifestyle.
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Content available LATER RETIREMENT? PATTERNS, PREFERENCES, POLICIES
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Pension systems are a major part of the political economy of current societies – much beyond providing old-age income security. The well-known demographics of population aging as well as globalization today challenge their financial viability. Later retirement seems to be a good way to meet these challenges. However, it is not only unpopular but also inequitable in terms of differential longevity. The paper first discusses these problems, with a particular focus on the social stratification of mortality. It then analyzes the preferences towards retirement age at several levels:  in terms of attitudes towards public spending on pensions or towards the state’s responsibility in this matter, of support for pension policy alternatives, and of preferred individual age of retirement. Results show that large majorities across all age groups are in favour of more government spending on pensions. There is a substantial amount of ‘involuntary retirement’, meaning that people would have preferred to work longer than they actually did, as well as a somewhat lower amount of ‘involuntary work’, but the preferred ages are everywhere below 65, and in some countries still below 60. Finally, the paper examines the policies of raising the retirement age adopted during the last two decades. What has especially been lacking in these policies is a consideration of socially differentiated longevity.
EN
Urban centres continue to attract people across social divides. So also is the environment, which changes with constant interactions among urban population who constantly harness environmental resources for their survival. This process comes with its attendant effects that could be either positive or negative. This process explains the rationale behind uneven population patterns among human settlements as well as the lopsided distribution of resources needed to make life worthy of living. The public utilities, health and social services continue to be largely unavailable and where they are available, they are inefficient, shoddy and collapsing. This study is therefore a novel attempt at making a modest contribution to academic discourse on urban studies. It tries to explore the impact of urbanisation on health situation and life expectancy of urban dwellers. The study made use of primary data, which was collected through telephone interviews. The participants in these interviews included scholars in urban studies, public health educators, social workers, and epidemiologists. This was complemented with data from existing literature from scholars in urban and health studies. The results from this study showed that urban environmental problems like inadequate water and sanitation, high infant mortality, lack of rubbish disposal, industrial pollution and its attendant respiratory infections and other infectious and parasitic diseases persist. This is therefore an indication of the deleterious status of socio-economic determinants of health that can hamper a healthy life expectancy.
EN
The paper begins with the discussion of a cause-and-effect econometric model describing life expectancy in Poland in three variants: for men, women, and both sexes at the same time. The analysis is preceded by a brief review of research reports on the subject, with a special focus on empirical applications in the context of adequate explanatory variables. The estimation of the parameters was made with the use of a stepwise regression method, while the final version of the model was selected on the basis of a reliable statistical test, the author says. The research shows that the following variables had a statistically significant impact on life expectancy in Poland in the analyzed period (1975-2005): urbanization, the quality of healthcare, human capital, incomes, economic inequalities, social capital, behavioral factors, and the natural environment. However, the relative impact of these factors on life expectancy differed substantially for men and women, Florczak says. In the second part of the article, the author proposes a model breaking down the population by sex and age, with the use of a “top-down modeling strategy.” The parameters of the Gompertz mortality law and a logistic function were estimated for each year, with the entire population divided into coherent age groups. The resulting demographic model makes it possible to draw up forecasts and simulation scenarios taking into account links between the economic and demographic determinants of growth, Florczak says.
EN
The precarious and decisive dy namics concerning the health of the populat ion of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries has called for further inquiry into the determinants of life expectancy (LE) in this region. Hence, the current paper employs the panel data estimation methods to analyse the economic, social, demographic, environmental, and technological factors influencing LE in five SAARC countries. These countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) are selected as they are favoured by the country similarity theory and other identical contexts. Available secondary data from 2000 to 2016 were obtained from the World Bank and UNDP databases for the specfic countries. The results reveal that the mean year of schooling and sanitation services are significant positive predictors of life expectancy at birth (LEAB). However, the total fertility rate, urban population, and CO2 emissions negatively influence life expectancy. Furthermore, the impact of health expenditure on life expectancy is significant but negative, which is unconventional. On the other hand, other independent variables, such as GDP, gross capital formation, internet usage, and mobile cellular subscription turn out to be insignificant predictors of LEAB. Our aggregate findings reveal some common factors on which the governments of SAARC countries can colla borate to improve the LEAB of the region while identifying some idiosyncratic factors that require tailored attention of the governments and policymakers of the respective nations.
EN
ObjectivesIncreased life expectancy results in greater challenges posed to healthcare. Concurrently, a shortage of healthcare workforce, including nurses, has been observed. Thus, an urgent need exists to implement improvements in healthcare services based on sufficient evidence. The aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of the relative number of nurses/midwives on life expectancy, and the influence of selected economic variables: gross domestic product (GDP), health expenditure as a percentage of GDP, and health expenditure per capita, on this number. The aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of the relative number of nurses/midwives on life expectancy, and the influence of select economic variables: GDP, health expenditure as a percentage of GDP, and health expenditure per capita on this number.Material and MethodsA retrospective analysis based on data from 46 countries was performed. Correlations between the relative number of nurses/midwives and life expectancy as well as economic variables were evaluated. To trace the differences between the countries with different relative numbers of nurses/midwives, the countries were divided into groups as follows – group 1: <5 nurses and midwives/1000 nurses inhabitants, group 2: 5–10 nurses and midwives/1000 inhabitants, and group 3: >10 nurses and midwives/1000 inhabitants.ResultsCorrelations were found between the relative number of nurses/midwives and life expectancy (p < 0.001, r = 0.68), and economic variables (p < 0.001, r = 0.82; p < 0.001, r = 0.62, and p < 0.001, r = 0.8, respectively). Life expectancy was higher in group 3 vs. groups 1 and 2 (p < 0.001 and p = 0.036, respectively), and in group 2 vs. group 1 (p = 0.006). Economic variables were higher in group 3 vs. group 1 (p < 0.001 for all) and group 2 (p = 0.016, p = 0.025, p = 0.022, respectively), and in group 2 vs. group 1 (p = 002, p = 0.024, p = 0.002, respectively).ConclusionsThe relative number of nurses/midwives correlates with life expectancy and relies on the country’s income and level of healthcare system financing.
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The precarious and decisive dynamics concerning the health of the population of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries has called for further inquiry into the determinants of life expectancy (LE) in this region. Hence, the current paper employs the panel data estimation methods to analyse the economic, social, demographic, environmental, and technological factors influencing LE in five SAARC countries. These countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) are selected as they are favoured by the country similarity theory and other identical contexts. Available secondary data from 2000 to 2016 were obtained from the World Bank and UNDP databases for the specfic countries. The results reveal that the mean year of schooling and sanitation services are significant positive predictors of life expectancy at birth (LEAB). However, the total fertility rate, urban population, and CO2 emissions negatively influence life expectancy. Furthermore, the impact of health expenditure on life expectancy is significant but negative, which is unconventional. On the other hand, other independent variables, such as GDP, gross capital formation, internet usage, and mobile cellular subscription turn out to be insignificant predictors of LEAB. Our aggregate findings reveal some common factors on which the governments of SAARC countries can collaborate to improve the LEAB of the region while identifying some idiosyncratic factors that require tailored attention of the governments and policymakers of the respective nations.
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INTRODUCTION The dynamics of social, environmental and economic factors that we are facing presently leads to a situation in which the question of the real impact of these factors on the population health status remains unanswered. AIM The aim of the study is to identify and quantify the impact of these factors on the population's health. MATERIALS AND METHODS Aggregated data from 66 subregions of Poland (for 2010) was used. The measures of male and female life expectancy at ages 0, 15, 30, 45, 60 and 65 were used. The impact of the following factors on life expectancy was investigated: health care, remuneration, education investment, accessibility of sewage systems, divorce rate and air pollution. The health production function was the basis for the empirical analysis and regression analysis was used in estimating 12 models. RESULTS (1) the factor influencing life expectancy of both genders most intensively is investment in education; (2) the importance of health care for life expectancy is significant for females at almost every age, while it is significant only for older males; (3) female life expectancy is not affected by the remuneration level, while it is important for male life expectancy; (4) the impact of divorce rate is much more significant for males as compared to females. CONCLUSIONS 1. The factors affecting life expectancy depend on age and gender. 2. The actions targeted to increase life expectancy should involve – apart from health policy – also other actions of income, environmental and education policies.
PL
WSTĘP Zmienność i dynamika czynników społecznych, środowiskowych oraz ekonomicznych, z którą mamy obecnie do czynienia, sprawia, że pytanie o rzeczywisty ich wpływ na stan zdrowia populacji pozostaje wciąż bez satysfakcjonującej odpowiedzi. Celem badania jest identyfikacja i kwantyfikacja wpływu tych czynników na stan zdrowia populacji. MATERIAŁ I METODY W badaniu zastosowano dane zagregowane na poziomie 66 podregionów Polski (2010 r.). Zastosowano mierniki trwania życia, osobno dla populacji kobiet i mężczyzn w wieku 0, 15, 30, 45, 60 i 65 lat. Zbadano wpływ na trwanie życia następujących czynników: opieka zdrowotna, wynagrodzenia, inwestycje w kształcenie, dostępność oczyszczalni ścieków, stopa rozwodów, zanieczyszczenie powietrza. Podstawę analityczną badania stanowi funkcja produkcji zdrowia, w szacowaniu której zastosowano analizę regresji. Oszacowano 12 modeli. WYNIKI Czynnikiem oddziałującym najsilniej na trwanie życia obu płci są inwestycje w kształcenie. Znaczenie opieki zdrowotnej w kształtowaniu trwania życia jest czynnikiem istotnym w przypadku kobiet niemal w każdym wieku, natomiast w przypadku mężczyzn istotność tego czynnika dotyczy tylko mężczyzn starszych. Trwanie życia kobiet nie jest uwarunkowane wysokością dochodów, natomiast mężczyzn tak. Wpływ rozwodów na trwanie życia jest zdecydowanie silniejszy w przypadku mężczyzn. WNIOSKI 1. Czynniki determinujące trwanie życia zależą od wieku i płci. 2. Działania mające na celu wydłużanie trwania życia powinny opierać się – obok opieki zdrowotnej – na narzędziach z zakresu różnych polityk, w tym: dochodowej, ochrony środowiska czy oświatowej.
PL
Wiek emerytalny nie powinien być wartością stałą, ale dostosowaną do sytuacji demograficznej społeczeństwa i finansowej systemu emerytalnego. Jednocześnie jednak powinien odpowiadać różnorodności obywateli i ich warunków życiowych, zdrowia i możliwości kontynuowania pracy, co uzasadnia stwierdzenie, że nie może być to wiek dla wszystkich jednakowy. Autor opracowania szuka kompromisu między rozbieżnymi interesami poszczególnych grup społecznych i odpowiada na pytanie, czy „właściwy” wiek emerytalny to właściwe sformułowanie.
EN
The retirement age should not be a constant value, but adjusted to the demographic situation of society and the finances of the pension system. On the other hand, at the same time, it should correspond to the diversity of citizens and their living conditions, health and the possibility of continuing work, which justifies the statement that it cannot be an equal age for all. The author of the study seeks a compromise between the diverging interests of particular social groups and answers the question as to whether an „appropriate” retirement age is the right wording.
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W opracowaniu zbadano społeczne i ekonomiczne determinanty trwania życia w krajach na-leżących do OECD, traktując przy tym trwanie życia jako miernik stanu zdrowia populacji. Pod-stawę teoretyczną badania stanowi funkcja produkcji zdrowia. Analiza empiryczna obejmuje 27 krajów OECD i lata 1990–2007. Oszacowano równania re-gresji trwania życia kobiet i mężczyzn w wieku 0, 40, 65 i 80 lat przy zastosowaniu analizy regre-sji dla danych panelowych (modele z efektami ustalonymi). Wyniki badania wskazują, że dochód – reprezentowany przez PKB per capita – jest istotnym czynnikiem determinującym trwanie życia. Innymi czynnikami pozytywnie wpływającymi na stan zdrowia są wydatki na opiekę zdrowotną oraz wykształcenie, reprezentowane przez zmien-ną symptomatyczną, ilustrującą zatrudnienie w sektorze usługowym. Negatywny wpływ na trwanie życia mają natomiast konsumpcja tytoniu, alkoholu i cukru oraz zanieczyszczenie tlenkami siarki. Wyniki pośrednio sugerują, że okresy recesji mogą wywoływać negatywne konsekwencje zdrowotne.
EN
The purpose of analysis conducted in the paper is to investigate socio-economic determinants of life expectancy in OECD countries. Life expectancy is used as a measure of population health and health production function is the theoretical basis for analysis.The empirical analysis is based on the data from 27 OECD countries and comprises period 1990–2007. The equations of female and male life expectancy at ages 0, 40, 65 and 80 were esti-mated using regression analysis for panel data (fixed-effects models). The results indicate that income (represented by per capita GDP) is important determinant of life expectancy. Other factors positively influencing life expectancy are health care expenditures and education (proxied by employment in services). The factors that influence life expectancy negatively are alcohol, tobacco and sugar consumption as well as sulphur oxides emission. The results suggest that periods of economic downturns may cause negative health consequences.
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Content available Potencjał demograficzny województwa lubuskiego
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Społeczeństwo województwa lubuskiego podlega procesom demograficznym podobnym jak w całym kraju i podobnym do obserwowanych w większości krajów Unii Europejskiej. Należy do nich przede wszystkim: falowanie wyżów i niżów demograficznych, deficytowe saldo migracji zarówno wewnętrznych, jak i zagranicznych, ujemny przyrost naturalny oraz wydłużanie się życia. Stosunkowo niezła dynamika zmian, w odniesieniu do mediany wieku oraz współczynnika obciążenia demograficznego, konfrontuje się ze zjawiskiem spadającej liczby zawieranych małżeństw i rosnącym odsetkiem urodzeń pozamałżeńskich. Postępujący proces starzenia się Lubuszan wpłynie na występowanie niekorzystnych trendów w zasobach siły roboczej, a także spowoduje istotne utrudnienia funkcjonowania systemu zabezpieczeń społecznych.
EN
Lubuskie voivodship society is affected by demographic processes similar to those observed in all country and in most of the European Union countries. First of all it is a demographic oscillation of baby booms and population declines, negative both internal and international migration balance, negative natural increase and increasing life expectancy. Relatively good dynamic of changes in the field of the median age of the population and dependency ratio contrasts with decreasing number of marriages and increasing percentage of extra-marital births. The progressive ageing process of lubuskie voivodship’s population will affect adverse trends in the labour force and will cause relevant difficulties in the social security system.
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