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Gas trading strategies — case studies

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Sołtysik M. , Mucha-Kuś K.

Transactions of the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery

2017

tom nr 137

71--84

The process of liberalization of the gas market influences the behavior of market players. In Poland, there has been adopted a model based on the introduction of mandatory gas sales involving the exchange segment. It has contributed to the greater involvement of stakeholders in gas trading on the Polish Power Exchange (TGE). The interest in this segment has also been enhanced by the opportunity to actively participate in cross-border trade. The paper presents the analysis of trading strategies taking into account the limitations of the existing regulations, market liquidity, price volatility and product structures on the Polish market and neighboring markets. Calculations reflect real price data from 2015 and also include logistics costs in case of gas physical delivery. Conducted analyses showed that discrepancy between gas prices in Poland and Germany, and Poland and the Czech Republic is not significant enough to generate profit in most cases. Negative results have been obtained regardless of the direction of transmission of gas, kind of contracts or selection of entry point into the Polish system. There is therefore no universal mechanism and trading strategy that may guarantee a permanent generation of profits. The few cases in which a positive result was obtained, mainly relate to the import of gas to Poland from Germany.