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A probabilistic model for flood forecasting based on hydrological data in the state of Maranhão, Brazil

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Borges L. d. S. , Nobre J. C. d. A. , Sousa de D. L. P. , Andrade L. C. F.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

2024

tom Vol. 12, Iss. 1

50--64

Investigating critical precipitation phenomena is essential for predicting flood events. In this study, data from 8 hydrological stations in the state of Maranhão in northeastern Brazil were analyzed. The first step involved collecting valid data from the time series of 4 municipalities (Açailândia, Arame, Buriticupu, and Santa Luzia), which were affected by floods due to heavy rainfall in the region. The aim was to use a probabilistic model to predict the occurrence of new floods based on rainfall and river discharge patterns. Atypical precipitation points were identified in boxplots, confirming the correlation between heavy rainfall and floods in 2023. The exponential equations-based model estimated the river discharge during the floods. The Flow Duration Curves (FDC) indicated the probability of events of equal or greater magnitude occurring as follows: Açailândia (10%), Arame (15%), Buriticupu (32%), and Santa Luzia (<5%). Finally, significant trends in the monthly precipitation series were investigated using the Mann-Kendall test.

Statistical methods for trend investigation in hydrological non-seasonal series

100%

Rutkowska A.

Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Formatio Circumiectus

2013

tom 12

nr 4

In the paper some methods for identification of the monotonic deterministic trend in hydrological time series were presented and discussed: the t-test, the Mann-Kendall test with corrections, the Theil-Sen estimator with the test based on bootstrap and the prewhitening method. The tests varied in assumptions on the existence of the serial correlation and the distribution of the variables in the series. Occasionally, when assumptions were not fulfilled, the tests led to contradictory conclusions. As examples, the applications to annual maximum and minimum flows were presented.

W artykule zaprezentowano metody statystyczne wykrywania deterministycznego, monotonicznego trendu w szeregach hydrologicznych: test t, test Manna-Kendalla wraz z poprawkami, estymator Theila-Sena wraz z testem opartym na metodzie bootstrap oraz metodę pre-whitening. Testy różniły się założeniami dotyczącymi autokorelacji i funkcji rozkładu badanych zmiennych. Niekiedy, jeśli założenia testów nie były spełnione, zastosowanie ich doprowadziło do sprzecznych wniosków. W przykładach zastosowano te testy do maksymalnych i minimalnych przepływów rocznych.