Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Hindcasting global temperature by evolutionary computation

100%

Stanisławska K. , Kundzewicz Z. W. , Krawiec K.

Acta Geophysica

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2013

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tom Vol. 61, no. 3

732--751

EN

Interpretation of changes of global temperature is important for our understanding of the climate system and for our confidence in projections for the future. Massive efforts have been devoted to improve the accuracy of reproducing the global temperature by the available climate models, but the hindcasts are still inaccurate. Notwithstanding the need to further advance climate models, one may consider data-driven approaches, providing practically useful results in a simpler and faster way. Without assuming any prior knowledge about physics and without imposing a model structure that encapsulates the existing knowledge about the underlying processes, we hindcast global temperature by automatically identified evolutionary computation models. We use 60 years of records of global temperature and climate drivers, with training and testing periods being 1950–1999 and 2000–2009, respectively. This paper demonstrates that the global temperature observed in the past is mimicked with reasonably good accuracy. Evolutionary computation holds promise for modeling the global climate system, which looks hopelessly complex in classical perspective.

2

India’s initiatives on environmental safeguarding - sustainability

72%

Mukherjee M. , Mondal S.

International Letters of Natural Sciences

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2015

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tom 47

EN

The report on sustainability initiatives across key sectors in India is written to highlight the current status of existing initiatives and also the future scope of initiatives that would be taken across key sectors in India. The report will showcase macro level information. The general question in travelling in mind would be why sustainability is growing so much in prominence? Quite likely the substitute answer would be to combat the climate change and safeguard the environment. The reason for choosing to write the report on Sustainability would be to increase the prominence of the initiatives that would reach out to various sectors, and hence can benefit the overall Indian sectors as a whole. Since climate change is a global issue, India’s initiatives against climate change in the form of various mitigation and adaptation would count against this climate change as a whole.

3

Deforestation and its impacts on climate change an overview of Pakistan

58%

Ali A. , Riaz S. , Iqbal S.

Papers on Global Change

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2014

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nr 21

EN

Forests are one the main natural factors that regulate and determine climate, weather patterns and amount of CO2 of an area. With rapid industrialization and rapid urbanization there is a significant increase in deforestation and as a consequence rise in global mean surface temperatures. Rapid and unchecked cut down of forest cover has resulted in some of the worst disasters during the last decades. This paper focuses on studying the role of deforestation, its influence on climate change phenomena and its consequences in Pakistan.

4

Zmiany klimatu - Nowy raport Międzyrządowego Panelu ds. Zmian Klimatycznych (IPCC)

58%

Marzec A.

Polityka Energetyczna

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2007

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tom T. 10, z. 1

97-103

PL

Artykuł stanowi skrócony opis informacji zawartych w czwartym Raporcie IPCC na temat zmian klimatu. Przedstawiono dotychczasowe zmiany, m.in. wzrost średniej globalnej temperatury w okresie ostatnich kilku lato0,8°C (w porównaniu z latami 1850-1900), wzrost poziomu oceanów i wzrost częstotliwości występowania dni gorących. Zreferowano prognozy dalszych zmian w XXI w., oparte o różne scenariusze rozwoju globalnej sytuacji gospodarczej i postępu technologicznego.

EN

The paper summarizes information on climate changes presented in the recent IPCC report ("Summary for Policymakers"; February 2007). The changes until now have been described, such as the 0.8°C increase of global average temperaturę in a few recent years (compared to 1850-2000 years); sea level rise and an increase in freąuency of hot days. Next, climate forecasts for XXI century have been reported that were derived from various scenarios of futurę global economy and technology development.

5

Long-term trends in timing of breeding of the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica L. in Croatia

58%

Dolenec Z. , Dolenec P. , Kralj J. , Kis Novak D.

Polish Journal of Ecology

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2009

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tom 57

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nr 3

611-614

EN

Climate change is known to have number effects on plants and animals. Several studies have indicated advances in laying dates of birds in the last ca. 40 years, which could be attributed to air temperatures. The research was conducted in the village of Mokrice, a part of the Hrvatsko Zagorje region (northwestern Croatia). We studied the long-term variation in the laying date of Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica in order to examine their breeding phenology in relation to mean spring temperature. The Barn Swallow is a common bird species in the study area. We found a significant correlation between the first laying date and year. The coefficient of regression (slope = – 0.36) for Barn Swallows indicates an earlier breeding by 0.36 days per year, or 10 days over the period of the study (1979–2007). Our studies suggested that date of clutch initiation in the studied population is influenced by spring temperatures.

6

Temporal variability of precipitation extremes in Estonia 1961–2008

58%

Paadam K. , Post P.

Oceanologia

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2011

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tom 53

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nr (1-TI)

EN

Daily precipitation data from 40 stations are used to investigate the temporal variability of precipitation extremes in Estonia. The period covered is 1961–2008, characterized by a uniformity of observational practice. Precipitation extremes are quantified by yearly and seasonal values of two different parameters: daycount indices based on 95th and 99th percentile thresholds. Trend significance was assessed with the Mann-Kendall test. Results show that the frequency of both indices has increased. No significant negative trends were found. An increase of 15.8 events over the 99th percentile per decade was observed for Estonia. The indices selected for this study may be called ‘soft’ climate extremes, but the number of such events is large enough to allow for meaningful trend analysis in a roughly half-century long time series.