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Taking investment decisions on the futures contracts market with the application of Bat harmonic pattern – the increased efficiency of investment

100%

Bednarz K.

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

2014

tom 13

nr 1

7-21

The Bat harmonic pattern presented in the article shows that transactions made thanks to it on the contract market are characterized by an above-average rate of return (206.43% within 27 days) while accepting the initial risk (R). The use of the potential reversal zone (PRZ) calculated thanks to the Fibonacci retracements (internal and external retracements as well as pricing projections) makes profits that arise in such a short time to be considered impressive. This article presents also one of the simple methods of profits protection which involves exceeding the local maximum (for a short position) or the local minimum (for a long position), modified by the degree of the accepted risk (R). It is worth noting that the POO can be calculated for several hours (days, weeks, months - depending on the time interval) before the actual transaction is concluded. In this, among other things, the harmonic trading with XABCD pattern differs from many other investment methods. This is a decision making based on the data available up to the last bar in the chart of what is likely to happen after this last bar. You could even say that POO is buying fear when prices are falling heavily and selling greed when prices are rising rapidly.

Minimalizowanie ryzyka inwestowania w kontrakty terminowe futures - praktyczne zastosowanie formacji harmonicznej Butterfly

70%

Bednarz K.

Roczniki Ekonomii i Zarządzania

2014

tom 6(42)

nr 1

71-91

Investment risk (including futures contracts) depends on changes in financial instrument valuation (volatility). However it more concerns individual predisposition of a person taking investment decisions. It is an investor who decides what amount he can risk. While a technical analysis often shows the right time of concluding the transaction. In this article the author presents such a moment in the form of PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). This moment is calculated by the Butterfly harmonic pattern, which is described by important Fibonacci ratios. The article includes charts showing the futures quotations and summary data tables containing the value of the stop-loss order, which prevents the loss and protects profits. The essence of all the XABCD harmonic patterns (including the presented Butterfly pattern) is to calculate the right moment to initiate transaction as many days (sometimes weeks or months) as possible before such a moment appears. This moment is the point D, which is calculated using external and internal price retracements. From the placed charts and calculations it appears that the described structure is characterized by very high profitability (e.g. 492,31 % in 34 days on the market) at a certain acceptable, relatively low level of risk.