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1 Roczniki Ekonomii i Zarządzania

1 2014

1 Bednarz K.

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Minimalizowanie ryzyka inwestowania w kontrakty terminowe futures - praktyczne zastosowanie formacji harmonicznej Butterfly

100%

Bednarz K.

Roczniki Ekonomii i Zarządzania

2014

tom 6(42)

nr 1

71-91

Investment risk (including futures contracts) depends on changes in financial instrument valuation (volatility). However it more concerns individual predisposition of a person taking investment decisions. It is an investor who decides what amount he can risk. While a technical analysis often shows the right time of concluding the transaction. In this article the author presents such a moment in the form of PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). This moment is calculated by the Butterfly harmonic pattern, which is described by important Fibonacci ratios. The article includes charts showing the futures quotations and summary data tables containing the value of the stop-loss order, which prevents the loss and protects profits. The essence of all the XABCD harmonic patterns (including the presented Butterfly pattern) is to calculate the right moment to initiate transaction as many days (sometimes weeks or months) as possible before such a moment appears. This moment is the point D, which is calculated using external and internal price retracements. From the placed charts and calculations it appears that the described structure is characterized by very high profitability (e.g. 492,31 % in 34 days on the market) at a certain acceptable, relatively low level of risk.