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1 Myśl Ekonomiczna i Polityczna

1 2011

1 Rosati D. K.

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Gospodarki krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej – osiągnięcia i perspektywy

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Rosati D. K.

Myśl Ekonomiczna i Polityczna

2011

nr 4(35)

15-48

The article presents the economic growth in selected Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies since they recovered from the transformational recession in the early 1990s. The growth prospects for the region, including the present and future opportunities and challenges, are discussed against the past achievements and more recent crisis experience. The presented analysis is limited to ten CEE countries that joined the European Union between 2004 and 2007 (EU 10). The article aims at answering three main questions: 1) What were the key drivers of rapid growth in the EU10 countries in the pre-crisis period? 2) What is the explanation of the very divergent economic performance of the EU10 countries during the recent crisis of 2008-2009? 3) Can the region return to a sustainable growth path and if so when and under what conditions? And specifically, what are the key policy recommendations that could be addressed to CEE governments if economic growth is to be sustained? The analysis shows that between 2000 and 2008 economic growth in all EU10 countries followed a specific pattern based on large inflows of foreign capital, and supported by trade, financial and institutional integration within the EU. These inflows have pushed up growth rates but also contributed to the emergence of various economic imbalances, making most of EU10 increasingly vulnerable to external shocks. Countries that have accumulated largest imbalances suffered most during the crisis. As far as the growth prospects in the post-crisis period are concerned, the policy recommendations focus on the need to eliminate these imbalances while preserving the growth-enhancing elements of the growth model followed before the crisis.