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Party System Nationalisation and Non-uniform Vote Switching. Evidence from the Czech Republic

100%

Lyons P. , Linek L.

Sociologický časopis. Czech Sociological Review

2010

tom 46

nr 3

375–399

National rather than regional party systems are the norm in most democratic states. This has been interpreted as meaning that most voters view inter-party competition in the same way. With a high level of party system nationalisation the relative proportion of electoral support attracted by parties across all constituencies tends to be very similar although the absolute level of party support changes across elections. Sociological and institutional explanations have been used to account for party system nationalisation. Both of these explanations have generally made causal inferences using aggregate data. The link between party system nationalisation and the individual voter has not been examined in the same detail. Here this link is explored using an ecological inference analysis of vote switching. This research, using the Czech Republic as a case study, shows that the presence of high party system nationalisation evident across a pair of elections may be associated with nonuniform electoral swings. These results demonstrate that evidence of party system nationalisation should not be taken to mean that all voters view electoral choices in the same way.

Ekologické usuzování: explorace metody latentní struktury za využití volebních dat z ČR

51%

Lyons P.

Data a výzkum - SDA Info (Data and Research - SDA Info)

2008

tom 2

nr 1

49-75

This article explores how aggregate level data may be used to make inferences about individual level behaviour. A common strategy in the past was to assume that the relations evident in aggregated data are also present in individual data. Analysis of datasets where there is both individual and aggregated information demonstrates that this assumption is most often incorrect. This means that the relationships observed between variables at an aggregated level are unlikely to be observed in individual level data. This is a problem because quite often social scientists only have aggregated data for exploring individual level behaviour. A key question explored in this article is how is it possible to validly and reliably use aggregated datasets to make inferences about relationships between variables at the individual level. An example analysis is given using electoral data from the Czech Republic.