Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Współczesne migracje z Polski – próba oceny statystycznej zjawiska w latach 2004-2013

100%

Kwiatkowska M. , Jurkiewicz Z.

Społeczeństwo i Ekonomia

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2015

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nr 1(3)

7-20

EN

A discussion about the migration of Polish society after the accession of Poland to the European Union appears to be unjustified. The phenomenon of the migration of Polish society reaches the XIXth century, when about four million Polish emigrants settled down in the United States of America. Since the middle of the XIXth century the migration for employment has played the most important role in Poland. In the article its authors conducted the analysis of Polish migration since 2004. Statistical material comes from Polish Central Statistical Office, reports and research results. The main hypothesis of the article is that the effect of the accession of Poland to the European Union was the increase in the employment mobility of Polish workers due to the improvement of institutional conditions. The second hypothesis showed that on account of social-economic conditions inhabitants of eastern Poland, much more often decided on moving abroad than the residents of better developed areas of western Poland. However, the conducted data analysis of applying contemporary emigration did not prove the second hypothesis. It only let state that economic changes had a great impact on the scale volatility of the number of people who emigrated after 2004. The biggest decrease of the number of Polish emigrants took place in 2009 (nearly 40% year to year) which was connected with the economic crisis. The goal of this article is an analysis of Polish migration in the years 2004–2013. The authors conducted the analysis in the view of age and gender. The article describes the phenomenon of Polish migration before the accession to the European Union in 2004.

2

ZAGROŻENIA BEZPIECZEŃSTWA GLOBALNEGO WYNIKAJĄCE ZE ZMIAN DEMOGRAFICZNYCH

100%

Diemientiew G.

Security, Economy & Law

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2017

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nr 4/2017 (XVII)

EN

In 1968, in article titled „The Population Bomb”, biologist Paul Ehrlich warned, that in ’70 and ’80, famine will fall to the entire world, he claimed, that production of food and other necessary resources will be insufficient with growth of population. One hundred thousand years – that’s how many years we need to be the strongest living being on the Earth. With the beginning of 2018 the population of Earth is considered to be about 7.4 billion persons. It is about 91 percent of ecumene, with average of 49 persons for square kilometer. In the following article, author will try to answer the question, how the dynamically growing population influences the common security in global terms.

3

Taxonomic Analysis of Labour Market in Light of Demographic Regional Changes Occurring in Poland and Germany

100%

Jurkowska B.

Przegląd Zachodni

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2015

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nr 4(357)

175-205

EN

The article analyses the job market in the context of demographic changes that affect the regions of Poland and Germany, measures the regions’ development using selected taxonomic methods, explores similarities and differences between them, as well as shows other regional disparities. The study comprised 16 Polish provinces and 16 German states (so-called Länder), a total of 32 regions. Covering an area that is highly diversified not only economically but also demographically and in terms of the job market, the regions are here subjected to a multidimensional statistical analysis.

4

Spojrzenie na dysfunkcje społeczne poprzez pryzmat dziedzictwa myśli Emila Durkheima i Roberta K. Mertona

100%

Borowski M.

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2017

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tom 9

s. 483-492

PL

Artykuł ukazuje społeczne złożoności systemu społecznego, jego układów i połączeń w ujęciu teorii społecznych Emial Durheima i Roberta K.Mertona. Struktura społeczna jest zbiorem wielu zależności, zmiennych przenikających się wzajemnie, mających również wielki wpływ na siebie w zależności od rodzaju i wielkości oraz wagi oddziaływania. Ze zmienności jej i jej zmiennych rodzą się dysfunkcje społeczne.

EN

The article shows the complexity of the social system with its relations and connections, in regard of the social theory of Emial Durheim and Robert K. Merton. Social structure is a collection of many dependencies, variable intermingled with also a impact influence on each other depending on the type, size and weight of the influence. From its volatilities and variables, social dysfunctions are born.

5

Changes in the Procreative Behaviour in Poland and Some Impacts of the Process on the Size and Age Structure of Population as Revealed by Demographic Projections

100%

Lange M. , Uniwersytet Łódzki; Wydział Ekonomiczno-Socjologiczny; Instytut Statystyki i Demografii

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EN

In the 1990s, fertility was dropping rapidly in Poland. According to the GUS and the UN projections, low fertility may continue in the next decades. The procre- ative behaviour changes irreversibly affect the age structure of population. If the fertility level as low as it is today continued, the number of births would be ultimately reduced by almost half compared with the present numbers. However, the structure of population would be changing gradually. First the number of the pre-school children would change and then of those at school age. The high variant of the UN World Population Prospects is the only one where the number of the children aged 0–4 years is growing to the year 2020. If fertility does not change their number will, however, drop dramatically from ca 1.8 million that we have today to below 1 million in 2050. Decreasing fertility may distort the demographic structure in the long term by re- ducing the share of children and contributing to a relatively overrepresented proportion of old persons. Because of fertility falling from the 1990s and the appearance of baby boomers and baby busters, the size of the working-age population (15–64 years) will grow smaller after 2015. The aging process will also continue. The median age will grow to approx. 50 years in 2050. The dependency ratio will also increase and there will be 70 working-age persons per 100 persons aged 15–64 years, instead of slightly more than 40 that we have today.

6

Population genetics models for the statistics of DNA samples under different demographic scenarios - Maximum likelihood versus approximate methods

100%

Polański A. , Kimmel M.

International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science

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2003

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tom 13

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nr 3

347-355

EN

The paper reviews the basic mathematical methodology of modeling neutral genetic evolution, including the statistics of the Fisher-Wright process, models of mutation and the coalescence method under various demographic scenarios. The basic approach is the use of maximum likelihood techniques. However, due to computational problems, intuitive or approximate methods are also of great importance.

7

Negatywne procesy demograficzne charakteryzujące sudecki przygraniczny obszar górski

100%

Konopińska N.

Ekonomia XXI Wieku

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2016

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nr 1 (9)

151-159

EN

In this paper the autor attempts to answer the questions: whether the demographic processes taking place in the test area are typical for mountain areas? What actions must be taken in order to reverse the negative demographic trends? An answer to the questions required a calculation of population density, population growth rate and the share of the population by age groups in the total population. To assess the commonness of demographic processes occurring in the Sudeten border mountain area results were compared with similar, obtained for Landkreis Bad Toelz-Wolfratshausen. After defining main demographic problems, a number of actions, based on the experience of other mountain regions were proposed to local and regional authorities. These considerations have been preceded by a brief characterization of the Sudeten border mountainous area.

8

South Africa (2009) - Salient Contemporary Features in Facts and Figures

100%

Badenhorst M. , Department of Urban and Regional Planning U. o. P.

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nr 2

EN

South Africa is a demographically diverse country where many divisions (still) tend to coincide with racial boundaries, beset by a wide range of socio-economic problems typical of developing countries and otherwise stemming from its colonial past and a discriminatory past policy of apartheid. The paper describes the country's salient features in facts and figures in order to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of society in terms of demography, education, employment, public health care, poverty, housing, crime and the economy. The picture presented tends to be on the dark side, but also hopeful for the future thanks to inter alia a strong globalised economy.

9

Starzenie się ludności w kontekście zmian w rozrodczości

100%

Lange M. , Uniwersytet Łódzki W. E.-S.

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2013

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tom 291

EN

The aging of population is largely caused by falling fertility. To find out how fertility affects the share of the elderly people in the population, four variants of the UN World Population Prospects 2010 for Poland and Europe were examined, as well as selected indicators of population aging. The relatively high fertility and comparatively short life expectancy in Poland until the end of 1980s explain why its population aged much more slowly than other populations in Europe. In the last two decades the share of the elderly people kept increasing, mostly because of the deep decline in the number of births. For almost a decade now Poland has been one of the demographically old countries, although the aging process is relatively less pronounced in Poland than in Italy or Germany. In the medium variant of the UN forecast Polish fertility will be growing for the next few decades, but its level will not be high enough to ensure the minimum population replacement. Only in the high variant its growth will lead to rates of population reproduction higher than the minimum level. This situation might take place as early as the first half of the 2020s. The analysis of particular indicators illustrating the progress of demographic aging leads to a conclusion that even high fertility will not rejuvenate the age structure of Polish population, but it may considerably slow down the process of its aging.

10

Trajectories of the demographic development of Poland after 1989

88%

Parysek J. , Mierzejewska L.

Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series

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2012

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tom 17

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nr 17

109-115

EN

One of the major problems of contemporary Poland is its increasingly difficult and complicated demographic situation. This makes the identification of demographic trends of the recent years an important research task. The article presents an assessment of Poland's demographic situation after 1989, i.e. after the change of the country's socio-political system, using the graphic method of trajectories. It is one of the possible, though less popular, methods of studying time series, offering a new perspective on various processes, here demographic ones. The article has two aims: cognitive and methodological.

11

Polityka ludnościowa jako element strategii odbudowy pozycji imperialnej Federacji Rosyjskiej

88%

Szabaciuk A.

Przegląd Zachodni

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2016

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nr 4(361)

117-133

EN

The article aims to answer the question to what extent demographic and migrational determinants may influence the geopolitical situation of the Russian Federation. It is no secret that the Kremlin's authorities have for nearly two decades endeavoured to reintegrate the post-soviet area, fortifying Russia's political and economic position in the region and thus attempting to challenge the EU and the US in an effort to modify the present system of international relations. A multi-polar system of international relations is meant to terminate the North America's domination in global politics, restoring an imperial role to Russia. It is not just hollow rhetoric; the Russian authorities have undertaken a number of steps to realise these plans. The war with Georgia, the Ukrainian crisis, the intervention in Syria, but also the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union, are vivid signs of activity and determination of the new Russian elites, consistently executing their neo-imperialist projects. They may, however, be thwarted by economic difficulties and demographic crisis in the Russian Federation. Wanting to secure the neo-imperial course, the Kremlin must find a solution to these two strongly intertwined problems.

12

Regional differences in the age structure of Poland’s population in the years 1999–2010: a multivariate approach

88%

Mierzejewska L. , Parysek J. J.

Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series

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2013

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tom 19

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nr 19

61-72

EN

One of the characteristic features of the modern world is the dynamics of demographic changes. Depending on their nature and intensity, they can be a driving force behind socio-economic development or doom it to stagnation or regression. There is no doubt, however, that a declining demographic potential, especially unfavourable changes in the age structure of the population (an ageing society), may contribute to economic difficulties in the given area, often leading to social problems. The aim of the research the results of which are presented in this article was to analyse regional differences in the age structure of Poland’s population in two time intervals, viz. the years 1999 and 2010, using multivariate techniques, and more specifically, principal components analysis and cluster analysis. They both make it possible to accommodate many features of the population age structure simultaneously, thus better illustrating the two situations (the years 1999 and 2010) and changes that took place in between, than univariate approaches

13

Główne konsekwencje II wojny światowej dla warunków mieszkaniowych w Polsce

88%

Piwońska I.

Społeczeństwo i Ekonomia

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2015

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nr 1(3)

93-119

EN

Having a shelter or a home is one of the most important and subsistent human needs: the point that determines one’s position in the surrounding reality. Hostilities largely deprived the residents of Polish space so needed for their proper functioning. The aim of the this article is to present the consequences of the Second World War for the housing situation in Poland and how it affected the condition of ethical Poles. Difficult, postwar housing issues were deepened by the incompetence and occasional malice and local authorities. The article also highlights the basic demographic transformation resulting from the postwar expulsion of Germans and changes caused by the Holocaust. The analysis of the topic was based on the literature and the results of archival research carried out in selected teams of Archives of Modern Records in Warsaw.

14

Tendencje demograficzne w województwie łódzkim i ich konsekwencje dla osób starszych 50+

75%

Woźnica J. , Tokarski A.

Roczniki Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej w Toruniu

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2014

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nr 13

343-351

EN

The situation on the labor market in the Lodz region will change much in the short term, among other things as a result of unfavorable demographic trends, associated with a decrease in population, and also due to a lowering of labor resources. Decreasing labor resources may in the future adversely affect both the balance between the regional labor market by inducing a state of labor shortages and limit the opportunities for development of the region. Simultaneously, due to declining birth rates, prolongation of human life and emigration, especially young people, are progressing aging of the population, including labor resources. It is already a serious problem is the high proportion of economically inactive older people, and also low rates of labor force participation and employment. Shaped so the situation there is a need to take action at the regional level, aimed at creating conditions for continuation of work for persons having a retirement age through measures to improve the functioning of the working environment of older people.

15

Projekty przeciwdziałania zadłużeniu publicznemu wynikającemu z depopulacji

75%

Kowalska I.

Nierówności społeczne a wzrost gospodarczy

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2013

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nr 30

286-296

PL

Według autorów raportu Global Economic Outlook to nie krótkookresowe spadki aktywności gospodarczej, ale zmiany demograficzne są powodem rosnącego długu publicznego w poszcze-gólnych państwach. Aby wyhamować wzrost długu publicznego konieczne jest rozpoczęcie reform strukturalnych, które zapobiegną problemowi kosztów związanych ze starzeniem się społeczeń-stwa i depopulacji. Państwo polskie musi także brać pod uwagę długoterminowe wyzwania stwa-rzane przez zmiany demograficzne. W odpowiedzi na to zapotrzebowanie został przygotowany projekt uczynienia z Opolszczyzny Specjalnej Strefy Demograficznej. Celem artykułu jest przed-stawienie idei tego przedsięwzięcia, a także próba konfrontacji jej wdrożenia z uwzględnieniem ram finansowo-prawnych SSE

EN

According to the authors of ”Global Economic Outlook” report, not short-term decrease in economic activity but demographical changes are to blame for the increasing public debt in vari-ous countries. In order to stop the increase in public debt, structural reforms are needed to avert problems connected to the graying of societies and population decline. Polish government should also take into account the long-term challenges that demographic changes are posing. As an an-swer to these needs, a project of making the region of Opole a special demographic zone has been launched. The aim of the paper is to present the idea of this project and to try to confront its im-plementation taking into account legal and financial frames of the special economic zone.

16

Zmiany demograficzne w powiecie wielickim

75%

Luty L.

Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

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2011

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tom 12

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nr 2

241-248

PL

Ludność, jej stan w określonym czasie stanowi istotny składnik życia społecznego i gospodarczego danego regionu. Praca ma na celu opracowanie prognoz struktury ludności według ekonomicznych grup wieku w powiecie wielickim, w warunkach zmiennej struktury zjawiska w czasie. W pierwszym etapie analizy prognozujemy zjawisko, następnie za pomocą podobnych procedur jego składowe (tzw. surowe prognozy), a na ich podstawie wskaźniki struktury.

EN

The population, its status at a given time is an important component of social and economic life of the region concerned. The work aims at developing the forecasts of the structure of the population according to the economic groups of age in the powiat of Wieliczka, in conditions of variable structure of phenomena over time. In the first stage of analysis, we forecast phenomenon, then using similar procedures for its components (the so-called crude estimate) and their basis, indicators of the structure.

17

Rozwój demograficzno-społeczny Warszawy w XX wieku

75%

Gawryszewski A.

MAZOWSZE Studia Regionalne

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2010

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nr 5

11-28

PL

W XX wieku powierzchnia Warszawy wzrosła 15-krotnie, ale liczba ludności tylko 3-krotnie. Liczba ludności wzrastała, z wyjątkiem okresu powojennego wyżu demograficznego, dzięki napływowi migracyjnemu nowych mieszkańców. W rozmieszczeniu ludności w pierwszej połowie XX wieku występowała słaba tendencja dekoncentracji ludności, która w latach 1951-1970 przybrała odwrotny kierunek, ale od końca lat 70. XX wieku, wraz z rozwojem nowych wielkich osiedli mieszkaniowych, postępował proces dekoncentracji ludności. Poważne zmiany nastąpiły w strukturze wieku ludności. Zdecydowanie zmniejszył się udział najmłodszej grupy wieku i wzrósł udział ludności w wieku 60 lat i więcej, a przeciętny wiek ludności wzrósł o 15 lat, z 25,9 w 1897 roku do 40,9 w roku 2002. Natomiast nie ulegał zasadniczym zmianom udział ludności zamieszkałej od urodzenia w Warszawie, która od wielu dziesięcioleci stanowi ponad połowę mieszkańców miasta. W ostatniej dekadzie ubiegłego wieku dokonały się poważne zmiany w strukturze zawodowej mieszkańców, spadł udział czynnych zawodowo w przemyśle i budownictwie, wzrósł udział pracujących w usługach oraz utrzymujących się z niezarobkowych źródeł.

EN

In XXth century Warsaw's area has grown fifteen times but its population only tripled in number. The population has grown mainly thanks to newcomers, with the exception of the years of the post-war baby boom. In the first half of the last century there was a slight tendency to deconcentrate the city's population. Between 1951-1970 the process was reversed but by the end of 1970s, with the development of huge housing estates, the deconcentration process continued. There have been major changes in the age structure. The number of young people has decreased by far and the number of people over 60 has increased. The average age of Warsaw's population has grown by 15 years. The average age in 1897 was 25.9 and in 2002 it was 40.9. However, the percentage of people born and living in Warsaw hasn't changed essentially. For many decades it has made up over a half of the city dwellers. In the last decade there have been some major changes in the professional structure. The number of people working in industry and construction has decreased, whereas, the number of people working in service industry and supporting themselves from non-profit sources has increased.

18

MERCOSUR: DEMOGRAFÍA Y SUS EFECTOS EN EL PROCESO DE INTEGRACIÓN

75%

DEMBICZ K.

Revista del CESLA. International Latin American Studies Review

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2012

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nr 15

229-240

ES

El presente artículo tiene como objetivo describir la actual situación demográfica de los países miembros del Mercosur, hacer un análisis comparativo, señalando las diferencias y similitudes, e indicar los eventuales desafíos que pueden surgir como consecuencia de los procesos demográficos de las naciones integrantes de esta agrupación.

EN

This article aims to describe the demographic situation of the member countries of Mercosur, and to make a comparative analysis pointing out the differences and similarities and indicate possible challenges that may be a result of demographic processes for this group.

19

Region zachodniopomorski w perspektywie demograficznej

75%

Gołdyka L.

Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego, Studia Sociologica

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2008

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nr 18

129-141

PL

W artykule autor pokazuje w perspektywie demograficznej zachodniopomorską (północną) część pogranicza polsko-niemieckiego. Ważne dla socjologów jest pytanie, czy regiony pogranicza polsko-niemieckiego są demograficznie szczególne? Przywoływane w artykule dane statystyczne świadczą o bardzo wyraźnej demograficznej stagnacji regionu zachodniopomorskiego, rzutującej w ogólnym bilansie na uszczuplenie (pomniejszenie) jego demograficznych zasobów. Stagnacja demograficzna regionu zachodniopomorskiego jest w wielu zakresach odzwierciedleniem procesów ogólnopolskich. Natomiast podane w artykule dane statystyczne dotyczące małżeństw, szczególnie małżeństw w relatywnie młodym wieku, dotyczące średniego wieku wstępowania w związki małżeńskie oraz urodzenia pierwszego dziecka, dotyczące rozwodów oraz urodzeń pozamałżeńskich, mogą być podstawą hipotezy o odrębności demograficznej regionu zachodniego pogranicza.

EN

In the article the author shows Western Pomeranian part of Polish-German borderland in the demographic perspective. An important question for sociologists is if regions of the Polish-German borderland are demographically distinctive? The statistical data presented in the article indicates an evident demographical stagnation of the Western Pomeranian Region which results in decrease of its demographical potential. The demographical stagnation of the Western Pomeranian Region is, in many aspects, a reflection of nationwide processes in Poland. The following statistical data shown in the article such as these concerning marriages, especially marriages at relatively young age, average age at marriage, birth of the first child, divorces and extramarital births, may be a base for a hypothesis of demographical distinctiveness of the region of western borderland.

20

Studium ekonomiczno-demograficzne sieci placówek wychowania przedszkolnego w Polsce

75%

Starzyk A.

Kwartalnik Naukowy Uczelni Vistula

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2016

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nr 3(49)

173-186

PL

Celem opracowania jest zwrócenie uwagi na problem dopasowania sieci przedszkoli do sieci osadniczej, szczególnie w okresach spadku populacji. W przeszłości, w momencie zaistnienia idei opieki nad dziećmi poza domem, powstał problem miejsca opieki. W Polsce, ale i na świecie, pierwsze instytucje miały charakter opiekuńczy, następnie rozszerzono program o czynnik wychowawczy, a dopiero po II wojnie światowej stopniowo włączano elementy edukacyjne. Ze względu na szeroki zakres i wielowątkowość problemu w opracowaniu znalazły się tylko wybrane informacje – przedmiotem badania jest czynnik demograficzny w zakresie niezbędnym do wyciągnięcia wniosków dotyczących potrzeb związanych z architekturą przedszkolną. Wyodrębniono cztery podstawowe części: Wychowanie przedszkolne w Polsce – geneza; Placówki wychowania przedszkolnego w Polsce po 1989 roku; Placówki wychowania przedszkolnego w Polsce w latach 2010-2015; Placówki wychowania przedszkolnego w Polsce – prognoza. Materiał będący wynikiem badań jest wyjściowym dla dalszych opracowań.

EN

The aim of the study is to highlight the problem of conformation of the kindergarten infrastructure to the needs of the community it serves, especially during periods of declining population. In the past – at the time when the idea of looking aft er children outside home was born – there was an issue of a place of care. In Poland, but also in the world, the first of such institutions provided care only. Next the aspect of raising youngsters was added. After World War II the educational element was started being gradually introduced. Because of a wide spectrum and plurality of the problem, the study presents only selected issues – the research looks at demography but only at the aspects allowing understanding the changes needed in the architecture of the preschool infrastructure. Four main elements have been selected: Preschool care in Poland – genesis; Preschool care infrastructure in Poland between 2010 and 2015; Preschool care infrastructure – prognosis. Conclusion of this research will form the base for further studies.