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1
Content available remote Operations on intuitionistic fuzzy values in multiple criteria decision making
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This paper presents an analysis of the basic definitions of the theory of intuitionistic fuzzy sets. Some undesirable properties of commonly used operations on intuitionistic fuzzy values are revealed and the ways to approve the properties of intuitionistic fuzzy arithmetic are proposed. The aim of the analysis presented in the paper is to propose a set of operations on intuitionistic fuzzy values, which provides non-controversial results of the solution of multiple criteria decision making problems in the intuitionistic fuzzy setting. The theoretical analysis is illustrated with numerical examples.
EN
Obviously, providing unique answers to the alternatives of a decision is a prerequisite for each authentic decision making theory. It is common knowledge that the Eigenvalue Method, usually applied in the Analytic Hierarchy Process, in a unique way captures the transitivity in matrices that are not consistent. This could lead to the conclusion that maybe the Eigenvalue Method is the only proper way to enable reliable decision making based on priority weighing during pairwise comparison judgments in a situation when inconsistency takes place. Undoubtedly, however, the Eigenvalue Method, in spite of obvious benefits, also has a few drawbacks which perhaps, should be also taken into consideration before labelling it as exceptional. That is also the reason why a relatively novel and new approach is introduced in this article. In the approach presented herein, an optimization procedure is combined with the Eigenvalue Method, which enables the retaining of advantages of the latter, while at the same time avoiding its drawbacks.
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Content available remote A genetic algorithm for deriving final ranking from a fuzzy outranking relation
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The multiple criteria aggregation methods allow us to construct a prescription (or solution) from a set of alternatives based on the preferences of a Decision Maker or a group of Decision Makers. In some approaches, the prescription is immediately deduced from the aggregation preferences process. When the aggregation model of preferences is based on the outranking approach, a special treatment is required, but some non rational violations of the explicit global model of preferences could happen. In this paper a new genetic algorithm which allows to exploit a known fuzzy outranking relation is introduced with the purpose of constructing a prescription for ranking problems. The performance of our algorithm is evaluated on a set of test problems. Computational results show that the genetic a1gorithrn-based heuristic is capable of producing high-quality prescriptions.
EN
Multiple criteria decision aiding methodologies rely on basic principles concerning the consistency of decision maker's (DM's) preferences. Among these principles, the Third Alternative Invariance (TAI) principle states that elicited preferences on two alternatives should not be affected by the presence or availability of a third alternative. Em-pirical statements on cognitive limitations of decision makers tends to contradict this principle. Our work aims at analysing the behaviour of DMs when answering binary and ternary choice questions. Results show a violation of the T AI principle. Such results may be explained by a shift in the reference points considered by decision makers in the binary and ternary choice questions. Implications for preference elicitation techniques in multiple criteria decision aid are discussed.
EN
S. Kierkegaard believed that there were three different forms of life and called them the aesthetic stage, the ethical stage, and the religious stage. L. Kohlberg’s theory of moral development divides individuals on the basis of their moral development into six stages, two at the pre-conventional level, two at the conventional level and two at the post-conventional level. This theory shows progress from strong addiction and submission to outside influences and never ending inner struggle to overcome crisises in order to achieve moral autonomy. In the light of cross-cultural comparison there is only partial support for a relationship between level of moral judgment (based on Kohlberg’s theory of moral development) and ethical decision-making. Data collected from Malaysian and New Zeland business students provided evidence that the relationship between subject’s level of moral judgment and their ethical intentions occurred in only three of six instances. The absence of a consistent empirical relationship between level of moral judgment, ethical intentions and culture suggests that the number of other factors may influence an individual’s ethical behavior.
EN
In this article, the author has attempted to analyse the problem of making purchase decisions concerning both everyday consumables, such as food, beverages, household chemicals, cosmetics, etc., and durable goods (real properties, cars, furniture, audio/video devices and household appliances) in the Polish households. They are often made independently by a single person representing the given household, and to a certain extent, they also constitute an outcome of the arrangements between the household members. Therefore, the main point of the study was to determine whether the consumption structure in the Polish households develops according to the traditional model as assumed by the neo-classical economics, or if a democratic model starts to prevail. Another issue studied was the influence of the most significant demographic characteristics, such as sex, age, education, social group or place of residence, on the manner in which the said decisions are made. It seems that the survey results analysed are sufficient grounds for claiming that the democratic model of the purchase decision making, with regard to both the everyday shopping and buying of durable goods, will gradually become more and more popular in the Polish households primarily due to predominance of this model in younger households.
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Content available remote Beta-backscattering Thickness-meter Design and Evaluation with Fuzzy TOPSIS Method
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An industrial gauge for measuring thickness of a gold coating layer deposited on a steel base through detection of the backscattered beta particles has been described. 3H, 14C and 63Ni pure beta emitters have been tested as the radioisotopic sources of the system individually in a fixed geometry. Analytical calculations have been performed in each case. Furthermore, simulations based on Monte Carlo stochastic technique (MCNP) have been processed. The obtained results from both methods have been compared to define the sensitivity of the system in each case. Finally for the first time, fuzzy TOPSIS method has been used for choosing the best source in the defined geometry for manufacturing, considering the following three criteria: (a) saturation thickness, (b) precision and (c) sensitivity. Results have shown that 3H source is the best alternative to the introduced measuring system.
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Content available A method of assigning a global preference index
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The issue of decision-making has been examined based on the preferences of the entire population, when the preferences of a few subpopulations varying significantly in size are known. The purpose of assigning global preferences according to the coefficients proposed here was to avoid marginalising the preferences of the smaller subpopulations. The preference coefficients for the population have been assigned using a weighted arithmetic mean, where the weights are the square roots of the sizes of the subpopulations. This is similar to the voting system known as the “Jagiellonian compromise”. The statistical properties of these constants were presented in the context of decision making. These results have been illustrated by way of an example where the subpopulations exhibit significant differences, viz. students’ choice of an economics university in Lower Silesia, Poland.
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Content available Doskonalenie procesów decyzyjnych w organizacji
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Scientific field of decision making process is extremely popular. Policymakers are increasingly aware of the potential mistakes associated with the process of decision making. Empirical studies show that despite huge knowledge of decision making process its quality has not improved significantly, both for the individual and the organization as a whole. Mistakes made by managers arise mainly from two sources: the treatment of decision as a domain of top managers and the lack of systematic monitoring and analysis of decision making process in the organization. The main objective of this paper is to identify and critically analyze methods (tools, guidelines and approaches) of improving decision making process.
EN
Risk is a category that is inseparably connected with uncertainty and probability, which means that the nature of risk as a category of science is complex, and the concept of risk is very difficult to define by one conceptual system of modern science. Due to the above, the main research hypothesis of the work is oriented to the assumption that the complexity of the risk category is determined by the diversity (variety) of reality, as a result of which in science there is currently no uniform methodology for risk assessment and estimation. As a result, the main goal of the article is to describe the research area based on selected representative methods of risk estimation and logical decision-making schemes, as well as to systematise the knowledge about the methodology used in them. In the article, the authors illustrate risk estimation with examples developed by themselves and quoted from various fields of science, differing from one another in formal terms in quantitative and qualitative (numerical and content-verbally) dimensions. Strategic risk, risk of fraction estimation, Bayesian risk, Bayesian methods for estimation of population distribution parameters, risk of econometric model assessment, interest rate risk, banking risk, and adverse event as a measure of risk are here addressed. The article also focuses on the problem of risk estimation in terms of the theory of fractals. The work is to have not only cognitive but also practical meaning. The created source of knowledge should prove helpful for decision-makers in the area of management since effective process management requires the expertise of risk estimation in various dimensions and using various mathematical tools.
EN
Risk is a category that is inseparably connected with uncertainty and probability, which means that the nature of risk as a category of science is complex, and the concept of risk is very difficult to define by one conceptual system of modern science. Due to the above, the main research hypothesis of the work is oriented to the assumption that the complexity of the risk category is determined by the diversity (variety) of reality, as a result of which in science there is currently no uniform methodology for risk assessment and estimation. As a result, the main goal of the article is to describe the research area based on selected representative methods of risk estimation and logical decision-making schemes, as well as to systematise the knowledge about the methodology used in them. In the article, the authors illustrate risk estimation with examples developed by themselves and quoted from various fields of science, differing from one another in formal terms in quantitative and qualitative (numerical and content-verbally) dimensions. Strategic risk, risk of fraction estimation, Bayesian risk, Bayesian methods for estimation of population distribution parameters, risk of econometric model assessment, interest rate risk, banking risk, and adverse event as a measure of risk are here addressed. The article also focuses on the problem of risk estimation in terms of the theory of fractals. The work is to have not only cognitive but also practical meaning. The created source of knowledge should prove helpful for decision-makers in the area of management since effective process management requires the expertise of risk estimation in various dimensions and using various mathematical tools.
12
Content available Improving the reliability of measurement testing
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There is proposed the application of an auxiliary quantity, homogeneous with the measured one, in the quality control of an object made with the use of measuring channel and processing and decision making module. The result of processing of this quantity in the measurement channel is applied for the additive and multiplicative correction of decision limits. This allows to reduce the impact of imperfect processing characteristics of measuring channel. The significant effectiveness of such correction, at different ratio of the components of processing error is presented. The influence of errors of forming auxiliary quantity is also considered.
EN
Aim/purpose - The COVID-19 pandemic generated a new communication universe with numerous actors, including conspiracy theory (CT) promoters who spread skepticism about the authenticity of the pandemic and the necessity of health emergency regulations. This study explores the dissemination of COVID-19 conspiracy theories in Canada to create a model for verifying conspiracy theories, especially in the context of decision making. Design/methodology/approach - The study was transdisciplinary and it was composed of an empirical and a conceptual part. The first part used analysis of websites and social media, observation with participation for data collection, and standard content analysis for data analysis. The conceptual part used a philosophical inquiry and a framework on heuristics in decision making. Findings - The empirical part of the study established three types of conspiracy theory promoters and labeled these as Conspiracy Theory Mill, Busy Gunman, and Hyper Relay. The conceptual part of the study created a model for CT verification. The study extends conceptualizing of conspiracy theories by characterizing them as narratives based on arbitrary ontological assumptions, epistemic naïveté and flaws, and contorted and biased logic. These narratives represent a form of folkish storytelling and entertainment, which become dangerous in the state of a public health emergency. Research implications/limitations - The study has implications for research on conspiracy theories and for the theory of decision making. The study's insight into the Canadian conspiracy theory landscape is limited by the types of social contexts studied. The model for verifying a conspiracy theory, which the study developed, is still incipient in character and needs further validation. The model can be used in decision-making theory. Originality/value/contribution - The study confirms the literature on conspiracy theories originating in the areas of psychology and cultural studies. Beyond just exhibiting characteristics reported in the literature, the discovered three types of conspiracy theory promoters may advance the corresponding typology research. The model for verifying a conspiracy theory may contribute to research on the nature of conspiratorial content as well as to decision-making theory. Practically, the three promoter types and the verification model can be used as part of a blueprint for identifying and controlling conspiracy theories. Decision-makers at large may benefit, including those in health institutions, government, business as well as lay people.
EN
The relevance to decision research of recent advances in the philosophy of social science is considered. The critical realism of Roy Bhaskar argues for the identification of contextually contingent explanatory mechanisms at multiple levels based on concepts grounded in intersubjectively shared reality. Using examples from the author’s and other’s research on the psychology of decisions involving risk and uncertainty, this paper explores the implications of taking a critical realist approach. It is argued that critical realism has the potential to advance and unify disparate experimental and naturalistic lines of research. Furthermore, a diverse range of experimental, process-tracing and observational methods can play important complementary roles in developing fruitful critical realist explanations of decisions involving risk and uncertainty.
EN
The complexity of decision problems – faced by managers – eludes simple analyses, the most important managerial choices relate to situations which are variable, capricious and related to the unpredictable future. Such difficult conditions stimulate intuitive thinking. As it is defined, intuition is absolute recognition that allows us to see the problem as it is. Decision-makers use intuition not only to experience illumination, but more often to search for key information or to base their judgment on information creatively processed beyond consciousness. Each time, however, the difficulty of decision making process may encourage managers to overcome the fragility of human nature using some form of intuitive feelings.
EN
Data of 137 patients with multivessel coronary artery disease were analyzed retrospectively to determine what clinical information had any relation with the selected treatment method. The deterministic analysis indicates a larger number of factors influencing the choice of treatment than the statistical analysis. Elements significant for the choice of treatment, determined both by deterministic analysis and statistical analysis: state of LAD below D1, state of D1, peripheral part of RCA, systolic function of antero-lateral segment, global left ventricular ejection fraction in angiography and echocardiography. Deterministic analysis proved that in the process of reaching the decision about choice of treatment, physicians took into consideration the results of large randomized trials, i.e. patient's age, state of left ventricular ejection fraction and state of proximal LAD segment (in this paper: state of LAD above first diagonal branch). Statistical analysis pointed only to the state of ejection fraction.
PL
Miało być o polityce surowcowej realizującej potrzeby przyszłych pokoleń, a tymczasem postanowiłem napisać o podejmowaniu decyzji. W Krótkiej historii podejmowania decyzji w numerze 109 „Harvard Business Review Polska” L. Buchanan i A. O’Connell proces ten scharakteryzowali tak mniej więcej w połowie ubiegłego stulecia. Chester Bernard (1886-1961), wówczas prezes korporacji New Jersey Bell Telephone i Fundacji Rockefellera oraz autor The Functions of the Executive , wprowadził do amerykańskiego języka biznesu pojęcie decision making – podejmowanie decyzji – zapożyczone z leksykonu instytucji publicznych. Pojęcie to z czasem zastąpiło w języku angielskim określenia o węższym znaczeniu, takie jak resources allocation – alokacja zasobów – oraz policy making – kształtowanie polityki przedsiębiorstwa. Według Williama Starbucka, profesora University of Oregon, wprowadzenie owego pojęcia do terminologii biznesowej spowodowało zmianę sposobu myślenia menadżerów o swojej roli. Stało się bowiem impulsem do bardziej stanowczych działań i zrodziło chęć dokonywania ostatecznych rozstrzygnięć, co ilustruje jego wypowiedź przytaczana we wspomnianym artykule – „O ile kształtowanie polityki może się przedłużać w nieskończoność, a kwestia alokacji zasobów pozostaje wciąż otwarta, ponieważ zawsze znajdą się jakieś zasoby do rozdzielenia, o tyle decyzja oznacza koniec wszelkich debat i początek działania”. Tym samym podjęcie określonej decyzji skłania nas do rozpoczęcia skutecznych kroków zmieniających dotychczasowy obraz sytuacji.
EN
In this paper the multicriteria optimisation problem in scheduling of discrete manufacturing systems is presented. The proposed method is an extension of work on integrated management system for variable and multiassortment production to order in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that is developed in the Institute of Automation Processes Engineering and Integrated Manufacturing Systems of Silesian University of Technology. Particular attention was paid to discuss the scheduling system operating conditions in an integrated environment - a system operating in real time. The proposed method indicates different decision-making stages to be taken in scheduling, from defining the problem, determining the structure of the production system, constraints and objective function, up to the generation and evaluation of solutions. The various approaches of decision maker participation in the process of finding the best solution are taken into account: a priori, posteriori and interactive.
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The meaning of Cyber Physical Systems and an Internet of Things with indication of RFID position in those concepts was outlined. Research program related to assessment of RFID technology was presented. Author deducted on problems related to RFID implementations and RFID essentially for logistics of manufacturing companies. Research goals and problems were formulated. Tools, techniques, models and methods that could be utilized were proposed and discussed. Research was focused on design of a new method to support early decision making phases for RFID application in logistics of manufacturing companies. Author stated that literature and practice lacks of complex method to answer if RFID is strategically important for the company, which processes should be RFID-supported, how RFID-supported processes should be designed and if RFID-support is rational. Framework for assessment of RFID technology with illustrative example was discussed.
EN
In this contribution we want to present the concept of uncertainty area of classifiers and an algorithm that uses uninorms to minimize the area of uncertainty in the pre‐ diction of new objects by complex classifiers.
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