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EN
The increasing energy consumption not only limits its accessibility but also contributes to the exhaustion of known and examined sources of that energy and the growth of its cost but mostly causes the increased emission of so-called greenhouse gasses – CO2, SOx, NOx, methane and so on. Those gases are responsible for significant climatic changes on our globe. Burning wood even though to a smaller extend than burning coal also contributes to that fact. Coal and wood as the result of burning simultaneously generate toxic substances – cancerogenic benzo(a)pyrene, heavy metals as well as dioxins and furans.
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Content available remote Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland
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EN
The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
EN
The paper is a compilation of results, which indicate the scale of possible changes of agroclimate that will occur as a result of the ongoing global warming on Polish territory. Calculations on the future meteorological elements were performed using WGENK weather generator. The 300 variants were obtained of possible annual weather courses dating to the beginning of the second half of this century, and corresponding annual indices of the A1 scenario developed by the IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). According to the local climate-factors, obtained data indicate that there are possible situations satisfying assumptions A1 main scenario, exceeding the current climate indicators in terms of temperature, radiation and precipitation, both downward and upward. Apart from this it is possible to greatly expend of the growing season as well as a higher frequency of certain adverse events such as frosts and drought periods. Due to the inability to accurately predict the weather in the perspective of decades and because the main indicators of climate can be realized locally in the form of multiple variants of weather on an annual agricultural production results are difficult to unambiguously determine. Agricultural productivity will certainly significantly be changed, but regardless of global change will have important local factors.
PL
Przedstawione w artykule wyniki wskazują na skalę ewentualnych zmian agroklimatu w porównaniu ze stanem obecnym. Nastąpią one w efekcie trwającego globalnego ocieplenia na terytorium Polski. Obliczenia dotyczące przyszłych warunków meteorologicznych przeprowadzono przy użyciu generatora pogody WGENK. Pozyskano w ten sposób 300 wariantów możliwych rocznych przebiegów pogody datowanych na początek drugiej połowy aktualnego stulecia, przy przyjęciu wskaźnika ogólnego wzrostu temperatury według scenariusza A1 opracowanego przez IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Zgodnie z lokalnymi uwarunkowaniami klimatycznymi uzyskane dane wskazują, że możliwe są bardzo różnorodne sytuacje pogodowe, spełniające ogólne założenia A1. Najbardziej prawdopodobne jest zatem wydłużenie wegetacji, jak i znaczne jej skrócenie, częstość zjawisk ekstremalnych może się zwiększyć, jak i obniżyć (np. mrozy, susze). Wskaźniki przyszłego klimatu mogą się spełnić lokalnie w postaci różnych wariantów pogody w układzie rocznym, kiedy w przyszłości temperatura globalna wzrośnie, to agroklimat lokalny może okazać się w tej samej mierze korzystny, jak i niekorzystny. Zatem trudno jednoznacznie przewidzieć przyszły stan agroklimatu i wynikający z tego poziom produkcji rolnej, gdyż niezależnie od tendencji globalnych, rola czynników lokalnych będzie znacząca.
EN
Climate change arising from anthropogenic driven emissions of greenhouse gases has emerged as one of the most important environmental issues in the last two decades. One of the most significant potential consequences of climate change may be alteration in regional hydrological cycle and river flow regimes. Increased temperature is expected to increase the peak flows in snowfed rivers of Himalayas. The changing pattern of regional temperature on flood peaks deserves urgent and systematic attention over a basin which provides an insight view of historical trends. Lower reaches of Satluj River is selected for the present study. Testing the significance of observed trends in flood peaks has received a great attention recently, especially in connection with climate change. The data series available was 48 years (1967-2010). The records were subjected to trend analysis by using both non-parametric (Mann-Kendall test) and parametric (linear regression analysis) procedures. For better understanding of the observed trends, flood peaks were computed into standardised flood peak indices (SFPI). These standardised data series were plotted against time and the linear trends observed were represented graphically. The analysis of flood peaks at different observation stations in lower reaches of Satluj River showed a large variability in the trends and magnitudes. The trend analysis results of flood peaks and gauge heights indicate that the flood peaks at all sites i.e. Rampur, Suni and Kasol show increasing but statistically insignificant trends. The trends in gauge height at all sites are also showing increasing trend but Kasol is statistically significant at 95% confidence level. The fast melting of glaciers, incessant monsoon rainfall and the synchronisation of the discharge peaks are the main causes of river floods. The past flood peaks will help us to observe the frequency of occurrence of floods in certain region and to determine whether the flood peaks in the past have been same with that of the present or whether there is any deviation in the trend in relation to climate change. Such studies will help in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies towards extreme hydrological events.
8
Content available Fifth IPCC Assessment Report now out
58%
EN
The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.
EN
High resolution, complex modelling system built with regional climate model (RegCM3), original emission model (EMIL) and air quality model CAMx was employed for analysing projected climate change impacts on concentrations and depositions of sulfur compounds (SOx) over Central and Eastern Europe. With employment of constant emission rates, results show a slight increase of SO2 concentrations in the future, as well as increase of SOx deposition in the mountains and decrease in central and eastern parts of Poland. Projections indicate also slight changes in a number of days and hours during the calendar year with SO2 levels exceeding European limit values. The biggest changes are evident in the vicinity of large point emission sources.
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PL
Celem niniejszej pracy jest usystematyzowanie wiedzy na temat czynników przyrodniczych oddziałujących na projektowane środowiska mieszkaniowe we współczesnych przestrzeniach zurbanizowanych. W pracy omówiono czynniki przyrodnicze: klimat i jego zmiany, istniejącą roślinność, wody powierzchniowe oraz rzeźbę terenu. Wpływ przedstawionych czynników na jakość projektowania architektonicznego zilustrowano przykładami współczesnych realizacji zabudowy mieszkaniowej. Skonfrontowanie wiedzy teoretycznej z praktyką projektową pozwoliło na otrzymanie pogłębionych analiz. Przeprowadzone badania niereaktywne (analiza treści i metoda desk research) dowodzą, że znaczący wpływ na jakość projektowanego budynku mieszkalnego mają czynniki przyrodnicze. Uwzględnienie tych czynników podczas projektowania środowiska mieszkaniowego może znacząco poprawić jakość życia jego użytkowników.
EN
The aim of this work is to systematize the knowledge about natural factors that affect the designed housing environments in modern urban spaces. The work will discuss natural factors: climate, climate change, existing vegetation, surface waters and landforms. The impact of presented factors on architecture design will be supported by examples of contemporary residential projects. By confronting the knowledge gained from theoretical works with the design practice, it was possible to perform in-depth analyses of the problem. The conducted non-reactive research, i.e. content analysis and desk research method, proves that natural factors have a significant impact on the quality of the designed residential building. Taking these factors into account when designing residential environment can significantly improve the quality of life of its inhabitants.
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