This paper is an approach to build a mathematical model of railway conventional track deterioration, namely a ballast layer settlement and track vertical geometric irregularities. This model is coupled with MBS vehicle model and is based on relatively simple mechanism of energy dissipation caused by dry friction between ballast grains. In the paper we will demonstrate the results of a track settlement prediction (as long-term process) obtained in series of simulations. The results are discussed in relation to the results obtained by others authors. One can state that found track settlement characteristics are similar to those obtained experimentally. Nevertheless, the similarity has, in this case, a qualitative meaning. There is also readable logarithmic dependence between a number of wheelset passages and track settlement. Quantitatively, achieved results commonly overestimate solutions given by experimental formulas.
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