Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Transmission Mechanism of the Federal Reserve System's Monetary Policy in the Conditions of Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

100%

Brózda D.

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nr nr 4

751-767

EN

The experience of Japan from the 90s of the twentieth century and the recent global financial crisis has shown that the zero lower bound problem has ceased to be a theoretical curiosity and became the subject of intense scientific discussion. This issue is closely linked with John Maynard Keynes's liquidity trap. The phenomenon of the zero lower bound is very controversial. Not all economists agree that it may restrict the effectiveness of the central bank's actions. The aim of the article is to present the views of economists on this transmission mechanism of monetary policy under the zero lower bound. The paper also attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve System's monetary policy at zero nominal interest rates. (original abstract)

2

A Global Perspective on Inflation and Propagation Channels

84%

Gattini L. , Pill H. , Schuknecht L.

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nr nr 1(3)

50-76

EN

This paper revisits the evidence on monetary policy transmission. It extends the existing literature in three dimensions. First, we attempt to internalise potential international channels of transmission by taking a global perspective. More specifically, we explore global aggregates covering a broader set of countries (ca. 70% per cent of the world economy) and a longer time span (from 1960 to 2013) than previous studies. Second, we broaden the set of transmission channels considered, notably by exploring interactions among monetary variables, inflation and asset prices (including residential property prices). Third, we look at the potential role of public debt in driving price developments, on the grounds underpinned by fiscal theories of the price level. On the basis of a VAR analysis, we find that: (1) global money demand shocks affect global inflation and global commodity prices (which, in turn, impact on inflation); (2) global asset price dynamics respond to financing cost shocks and (very modestly) to shocks to global money demand; and (3) positive house price shocks exert a significant influence on inflation. From a global perspective, the study suggests that an understanding of inflation requires recognition of the externalities that global commodity and asset price developments exert over domestic inflation. (original abstract)

3

Cost Channel in the Mechanism of Transmitting Monetary Policy in Poland

84%

Redo M. , Siemiątkowski P.

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nr nr 4

130-143

EN

The aim of the present paper is the analysis of the functioning of the cost channel (working capital) in the mechanism of transmitting a monetary policy into the Polish economy as well as the attempt to assess its strengths. To accomplish the above-stated goal, one attempted to solve the following two research problems: is the cost channel operative in Poland patent and what is its strength and efficiency? What was also analysed is the correlation between the level of the benchmark rate of the National Bank of Poland [hereinafter also referred to as NBP] and the value of the working capital relative to current assets and to sales revenues made by the business enterprises in Poland in the period 2005-2017. By analogy, what was also subject to correlation analysis was the relation between the base interest rate of the National Bank and the value of investment expenditures in Poland. At the next stage, via an inductive method, one conducted a synthesis of the conclusions obtained by way of a comparative analysis of the results of one's own research against the backdrop of the ones obtained by way of the analysis of the influence of a monetary policy exerted on the supply side of an economy, with the latter results having been obtained in consequence of global econometric research. The correlation analysis thus conducted seems to corroborate the influence of the monetary policy pursued by the National Bank of Poland on real economic indices in Poland; and, strictly speaking, on financial policies of companies. Any change in the interest rates of banks seems to significantly influence the cost of the companies' maintaining working capital. The research results presented herein are exceptionally important from the point of view of the efficacy of a monetary policy. In the process of designing it, the central bank should take into consideration any additional supply effects. In connection with the strongly positive correlation, as demonstrated in the present paper, between the value of the working capital and investment expenditures and the level of interest rates, it is necessary to have a better grasp of the mechanism of cost channel in a given economy as well as to do the ongoing monitoring thereof. (original abstract)

4

Bayesian evaluation of DSGE models with financial frictions

84%

Brzoza-Brzezina M. , Kolasa M.

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nr nr 5

25

EN

We evaluate two most popular approaches to implementing financial frictions into DSGE models: the Bernanke et al. (1999) setup, where frictions afect the price of loans, and the Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) model, where they concern the quantity of loans. We take both models to the data and check how well they fit it on several margins. Overall, comparing the models favors the Bernanke et al. framework. However, even this model does not make a clear improvement over the New Keynesian benchmark in terms of marginal likelihood and similarity of impulse responses to those obtained from a VAR. These findings point at the need for further research to develop macrofinancial models that would better describe the business cycle dynamics. (original abstract)

5

Ocena strategicznych celów polityki pieniężnej w Polsce z wykorzystaniem wielowymiarowej analizy porównawczej

84%

Błaszczyk P.

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tom Polityka gospodarcza w Polsce i Unii Europejskiej na początku XXI w.

57-69

XX

Narodowy Bank Polski już dziesiąty rok realizuje politykę pieniężną w ramach strategii bezpośredniego celu inflacyjnego (BCI). Istotą tego typu strategii jest fakt, że jej nadrzędnym celem jest stabilność cen, która ma odzwierciedlenie w celach inflacyjnych banku centralnego. Mogłoby się wydawać, że ocena realizacji celów polityki pieniężnej w Polsce powinna dotyczyć wyłącznie celu nadrzędnego. Założenia strategiczne BCI w Polsce przewidują jednak również realizację innych celów, jak wspieranie produkcji i zatrudnienia. Cele te można uznać za drugorzędne i z założenia powinny być realizowane w sytuacji, gdy nie szkodzą celowi nadrzędnemu. Pełna ocena celów polityki pieniężnej w ramach BCI powinna się odnosić do wszystkich wyżej wymienionych celów. Oczywiście należy zachować przy tym hierarchię ich ważności. Celem niniejszego opracowania jest ocena strategicznych celów polityki pieniężnej w Polsce w ramach BCI. W badaniu wykorzystana zostanie wielowymiarowa analiza porównawcza (WAP). Dzięki temu możliwe będzie ujednolicenie poszczególnych celów i w konsekwencji skonstruowanie kompleksowego miernika oceny. Wstępem do oceny będzie poznanie jej przedmiotu, to znaczy strategii polityki pieniężnej w Polsce i wynikającego z niej układu celów strategicznych. (fragment tekstu)

6

Modelling Monetary Transmission in Less Developed Emerging Markets : the Case of Tunisia

84%

Przystupa J. , Wróbel E.

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nr nr 5

395-434

EN

This paper exploits a case study of a country belonging to a group of less developed emerging markets (LDEMEs). This group has features which challenge standard New-Keynesian (NK) assumptions. These are: underdeveloped and shallow financial market, uncompetitive labour market, informal economy, weak institutions, problematic central bank independence, state ownership and controls, monetary policy targeting multiple variables. To overcome problems which might arise from using standard models, the paper proposes a complex strategy of modelling monetary transmission in LDEMEs: (i) SVARs which reflect the central bank's simultaneous recourse to multiple policy instruments and targets, and (ii) NK structural models, which capture such features as an immature financial market, exchange rate interventions, and price subsidies. This way, a range of possible reactions of basic macroeconomic variables to monetary policy instruments is obtained. Such approach, combining multiple econometric techniques, reduces uncertainty concerning specification, parameters and equilibria. (original abstract)

7

Polityka pieniężna a wskaźniki makroekonomiczne - stopa bezrobocia

67%

Szunke A.

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2011

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nr nr 4 (11)

52-59

XX

Opracowanie ma na celu podjęcie dyskursu na temat wpływu polityki pieniężnej oraz zmian poziomu podstawowych stóp procentowych na kształtowanie się stopy bezrobocia. Ponadto, podjęto próbę uzyskania odpowiedzi na pytanie czy istniejący związek ma charakter pośredni czy bezpośredni, natychmiastowy czy oddalony w czasie. Finalnie, skupiono się na mechanizmie transmisji monetarnej, jako elemencie łączącym politykę pieniężną z poziomem bezrobocia. W analizie szczególną uwagę zwrócono na okres załamania gospodarczego pierwszej dekady XXI wieku oraz działania niestandardowe podejmowane przez największe banki centralne na świecie. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The main aim of this paper is to join in the discourse on the impact of monetary policy and changes in key interest rates on the unemployment rate. Moreover, attempts have been made to obtain answers to the question whether the existing relationship is indirect or direct, immediate or remote in time. Finally, the author focused on the monetary transmission mechanism, as an element connecting monetary policy with the level of unemployment. In the analysis, particular attention has been paid to a period of economic downturn, the first decade of the twenty-first century and unconventional action taken by one of the largest central banks in the world - the European Central Bank. In modern market economies, the central bank is one of the centers of economic power. In the recent years, the role and the value of central monetary institution have acquired special significance as a result of increasing negative effects of the global financial crisis. It has been noticed that in addition to conventional instruments, resulting from the implemented monetary policy, central banks need to engage in supervision activities associated with stabilizing the financial system and restoring normal economic conditions. Also, by taking up unconventional actions, what has been very popular especially after September 15, 2008 (the date of the outbreak of the global financial crisis). The intelligent use of monetary policy's instruments may have a positive impact not only on financial markets, but also on the labor market situation. It means that the decisions of central banks may stimulate employment and reduce unemployment. (original abstract)

8

Reakcja aktywów banków komercyjnych na instrumenty oddziaływania banku centralnego : Rozważania na temat funkcjonowania kredytowego kanału transmisji polityki pieniężnej w Polsce w latach 1995-1999

59%

Łyziak T.

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nr nr 3

47-62

XX

Mechanizm transmisji polityki pieniężnej zdefiniowano jako wzajemnie powiązane ze sobą zachowania instytucji i jednostek ekonomicznych stanowiących drogę, poprzez którą polityka banku centralnego wpływa na decyzje cenowe i produkcyjne podmiotów ekonomicznych. W artykule przedstawiono problemy dotyczące zagadnień homogeniczności aktywów bankowych w świetle teorii oraz koncepcję kredytowego kanału transmisji polityki pieniężnej i porównano ją z koncepcją kanału stóp procentowych. Przedstawiono doświadczenia Polski, w latach 1995-1999, dotyczące empirycznej weryfikacji teorii kredytowego kanału transmisji. We wnioskach podkreślono między innymi, iż bank centralny wpływa nie tylko na stopy procentowe ale i na strukturę bilansów banków komercyjnych.