Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Selected Methods of the Determination of Core Inflation

100%

Przybylska-Mazur A.

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

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2015

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nr nr 381 Financial Investments and Insurance - Global Trends and the Polish Market

334-345

XX

Inflację bazową można definiować jako część inflacji rejestrowanej, która służy do oceny średnio- i długookresowego trendu wzrostu cen towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych w gospodarce. Zazwyczaj przyjmuje się, że inflacja bazowa jest związana z oczekiwaniami inflacyjnymi i presją popytową oraz jest niezależna od szoków podażowych. Wskaźniki inflacji bazowej umożliwiają pogłębioną ocenę procesów inflacyjnych w gospodarce, a zatem są pomocne w podejmowaniu decyzji inwestycyjnych i monetarnych w średnim i długim okresie. Można wyróżnić wiele miar inflacji bazowej. W związku z tym w artykule zostały zaprezentowane wybrane metody wyznaczania inflacji bazowej(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Core inflation can be defined as the part of price change, which is used to assess the medium-and long-run growth trend in the prices of consumer goods and services in the economy. Usually it is assumed that core inflation is linked to expected inflation and de-mand pressure and is independent of supply shocks. The core inflation indicators allow for assessing the inflationary processes in the economy and therefore they are helpful in choos-ing investment and monetary decisions in the medium-run and long-run. We can distinguish many measures of core inflation. Therefore, the purpose of this article is use alternative measures of core inflation based on selected low pass filter, such as: exponentially weighted moving average, Holt's exponential smoothing, Hodrick-Prescott filter and Baxter-King fil-ter. In the article we empirically compare these alternative measures with traditional measures of core inflation calculated by the NBP(original abstract)

2

Selected Measures of the Impact of Monetary Decisions on Inflation

100%

Przybylska-Mazur A.

Mathematical Economics

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2012

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nr nr 8(15)

97-110

EN

The principal and fundamental monetary policy target is low and stable inflation, because such inflation impacts on the stability of the financial system and promotes balanced economic growth in the long term. The monetary decisions, having an impact on inflation, may be contemplated as the foundations for stronger and more balanced economic growth. A suitable monetary policy that maintains production near to potential production and that balances demand and supply shock in the economy is the necessary condition for the achievement of low and stable inflation. For analysis of the impact of monetary decisions on inflation we use the traditional vector autoregression model of reduced order of monetary policy. In this paper we present the selected measures of the impact of monetary decisions on inflation using the generalized impulse response. We present the standardized difference between the inflation rate for the scenario with the shock and the inflation rate without the occurrence of shock - the measure taking into account the cumulative impact of monetary policy impulse on inflation and the long-term impact of monetary policy impulse on inflation.(original abstract)

3

Dilemmas over Poland's integration with the Eurozone

84%

Kaźmierczak A.

Journal of Management and Financial Sciences

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2008

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tom 1

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nr nr 1

41-54

EN

A Central Bank plays a crucial role in protecting market economy from inflationary pressure. Setting a low inflation rate is a tool widely used to manage monetary policy in most countries today. This paper presents both positive and negative experiences of inflation targeting in developed countries. Additionally, it shows current theoretical controversies over the role of Central Banks in stabilising open economy exposed to external demand and supply shocks. The Neokeynesian school of thought created a new macroeconomic approach to stabi- lisation policy within the frame of the AD-IA model. This model is a soft modification of the traditional, well known AS-AD model. The Neokeynesian AD-IA model of open economy emphasises the role of the Central Bank in adjusting processes of the domestic economy to external shocks. Neoclassical and neokeynesian advocates agree that inflation targeting is the best choice for the Central Bank activity. But contrary to the neoclassical advocates, the Neokeynesians underline the role of the Central Bank in the modification of external demand and supply shocks in approaching the inflation target. Such phenomena as sticky prices and wages, as well as, international economic interdependence weaken the strength of automatic stabilization forces which could keep the domestic economy in full equilibrium. The Central Bank cannot stand aside in the situation of inflationary pressure or wait for long-term self-adjustment processes. These automatic market forces work too slowly. However, contrary to the traditional Keynesian school, the Neokeynesians reject the policy of global demand manipulations to stimulate real activity. Such policy is counterproductive from the point of view of inflation control policy. They share the neoclassical school's views on the long-run neutrality of money. (original abstract)

4

Real Business Cycle Theory - Methodology and Tools

84%

Gazda J.

Economics & Sociology

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2010

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tom 3

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nr nr 1

42-48

EN

The Real Business Cycle (RBC) research program has grown spectacularly over the last two decades, as its concepts and methods have diffused into mainstream macroeconomics. In its primary version it bases on growth model with neoclassical production function which is subject to a stochastic supply shocks. Simultaneously employing in analysis rational agent which decides about labor input and deserved consumption allows to develop model following cyclical fluctuations observed in the economy. In order to do so multistage calibration-simulation procedure is used. The main aim of the article is to present methodological innovations introduced by RBC proponents such as: Hodrick Prescott filter, and multistage calibration-simulation procedure. (original abstract)

5

Szoki podażowe i nieokreśloność równowagi przy niestacjonarnej inflacji

84%

Wallusch J.

Zeszyty Naukowe / Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

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2011

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nr nr 190

214-231

XX

Stochastyczna nieokreśloność równowagi należy do najważniejszych zagadnień poruszanych przez współczesną teorię pieniądza. Zakładając niestacjonarność inflacji, w prezentowanym artykule wyprowadzam warunki określoności równowagi przy prostej regule stopy procentowej oraz przedstawiam symulacje reakcji produkcji realnej i inflacji na szok podażowy. Podobnie jak w przypadku wyników dla stacjonarnej inflacji, określoność równowagi wymaga agresywnej odpowiedzi banku centralnego na zamiany bieżącej inflacji. W przypadku wystąpienia równowagi plam słonecznych zmienność produkcji realnej i inflacji wywołana szokiem podażowym wzrasta wielokrotnie ponad jej poziom przy unikaniu samospełniających się oczekiwań. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Real indeterminacy in monetary models is usually studied under stationary inflation. In a vast majority of developing economies, however, there is a need to assume a non-stationary inflation. This paper presents the conditions that should be satisfied to prevent from self-fulfilling expectations when a supply shock occurs. Using the Sims procedure under I(1) inflation, I find that only a current-looking, aggressive monetary policy ensures the real determinacy. Impulse-response analysis confirms the standard result of increasing volatility caused by a sunspot shock. (original abstract)

6

(A)symetryczne szoki popytowe i podażowe w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

84%

Piłat K.

Wiadomości Statystyczne

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2018

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nr nr 2

7-20

XX

Celem pracy jest zbadanie podobieństwa reakcji gospodarki w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej na szoki pochodzące ze strefy euro i reakcji obserwowanej w grupie krajów, które przyjęły wspólną walutę. W badaniu wykorzystano szeregi czasowe kwartalnych wartości PKB oraz stopy inflacji. Dane zaczerpnięto z bazy Eurostatu za okres od I kwartału 1998 r. do I kwartału 2014 r. Metodologię badania oparto na strukturalnym modelu wektorowej auto-regresji (SVAR), a dekompozycję szoków przeprowadzono z wykorzystaniem podejścia Blancharda i Quaha. Otrzymane wyniki świadczą o relatywnie wysokiej korelacji reakcji badanych krajów i strefy euro na szoki popytowe, przy czym najwyższe współczynniki tego rodzaju osiągnęły Czechy i Polska. W przypadku szoków podażowych współczynniki korelacji kształtowały się na niższym poziomie, a najlepsze dopasowanie reakcji na zakłócenia ze strefy euro zaobserwowano w Polsce i na Węgrzech. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The aim of the paper is to examine the similarity of responses of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe countries to the shocks in euro area and response observed in the group of countries that adopted common currency. The study used time series of quarterly GDP values and inflation rate. Data were extracted from the Eurostat database for the period from 1st quarter 1998 to 1st quarter 2014. The methodology of the research was based on a structural model of vector autoregression (SVAR) and shock decomposition was carried out using the Blanchard and Quah approach. The results obtained show a relatively strong correlation between the responses of the examined countries and the euro area to demand disturbances, with the highest coefficients for the Czech Republic and Poland. In the case of supply shocks, the correlation coefficients achieved a lower level, while the best adjustment of the response to the euro area disturbances was observed in Poland and Hungary. (original abstract)

7

Teoria inflacji popytowej i kosztowej a polityka pieniężna Wielkiej Brytanii w latach 1955-1970 : reinterpretacja analizowanej inflacji w kategoriach pieniężnych

84%

Paszyn K.

Gospodarka w Praktyce i Teorii

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2008

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nr nr 1

47-68

XX

Przedstawiono teorie inflacji popytowej, inflacji kosztowej typu cost push inflation oraz interpretację inflacji popytowej i kosztowej jako zjawiska pieniężnego. Prezentacja ta jest punktem wyjścia do analizy inflacji w okresie 1955-1970 w Wielkiej Brytanii będącej konsekwencją przyjęcia zbyt niskiej stopy docelowego bezrobocia w polityce pełnego zatrudnienia. Wybór okresu został dokonany ze względu na dużą spójność prowadzonej wówczas polityki pieniężnej w Wielkiej Brytanii.

EN

The paper presents a few inflation theories: traditional keyesian demand inflation; cost push inflation; cost inflation as a supply shock, and new Keynesian reinterpretation of demand and cost inflation. The first two theories played the main role to formulate monetary policy in UK in 1955-70. The Radcliffe Raport (1959) -analyzing the sources of inflation in UK in the past shows why political and economy decisions-makers didn 't pay more attention to the money supply and important was demand inflation concept. In this period the Bank Rate was main tool of controlling rate of inflation because of its influence on credits and demand. Cost push inflation theory was the theoretical justification for implementing an income policy in 1961 in the UK. This type of cost inflation wasn 't interpreted as supply shock. Nowadays New Keynesian found interesting to examine this episode in the history of UK again. New Keynesian regard money supply as a final source of inflation. But the rational expectation are in this concept the same important as current monetary policy. Increase in costs or demand result in increasing of expectations of future inflation rate. This way higher level of costs or demand can be an incentive for inflation. But according to this theory and tests correct monetary policy could help to avoid a high inflation in this period. (original abstract)

8

Synchronizacja cyklu koniunkturalnego a realna konwergencja Polski ze strefą euro

84%

Stefański R.

Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny

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2008

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nr nr 4

129-149

XX

Realna konwergencja Polski ze strefą euro jest niezbędnym warunkiem dla uzyskania przez nasz kraj pełnych korzyści z przystąpienia do Europejskiej Unii Walutowej. Jej najistotniejszym kryterium z punktu widzenia skuteczności polityki monetarnej jest synchronizacja cyklu koniunkturalnego. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest ocena stopnia realnej konwergencji polskiej gospodarki ze strefą euro przejawiająca się w synchronizacji szeroko rozumianego cyklu koniunkturalnego, uwzględniającego: produkcję, ceny, rynek pracy i stosunki gospodarcze z zagranicą. Stosunkowo silną synchronizację cyklu koniunkturalnego w Polsce i w strefie euro odnotowano dla eksportu i importu. W przypadku produkcji przemysłowej jest ona wyraźnie słabsza. Wyniki badań wskazują natomiast na brak synchronizacji cyklu dla produktu krajowego brutto, stopy bezrobocia oraz inflacji. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują, że cykl koniunkturalny w Polsce jest w niewielkim stopniu zsynchronizowany z krajami strefy euro. Oznacza to, że Polska nie stanowi optymalnego obszaru walutowego ze strefą euro i może być narażona na asymetryczne szoki podażowe i popytowe. Ogranicza to potencjalne korzyści z przystąpienia naszego kraju do strefy euro w perspektywie kilku najbliższych lat.

EN

The real convergence of Poland with the euro zone is essential if the country is to enjoy the full range of benefits from the joining of the European Currency Union. The most important criterion of a successful monetary policy is the synchronisation of the Polish business cycle. The aim of the paper is to estimate the degree of real convergence of the Polish economy with the euro zone, which manifests itself in the synchronisation of the broadly understood business cycle, taking into account such factors as production, prices, the labour market and economic relations with foreign countries. A relatively strong synchronisation of the business cycle in Poland and in the euro zone has been observed in import and export, while in the case of industrial production the synchronisation is much weaker. At the same time, no synchronisation for the GDP, the rate of unemployment, or inflation has been found. It can be concluded that the business cycle of the Polish economy is only to a small degree synchronised with the euro zone countries. This means that Poland is not the optimal currency area with the euro zone and may be exposed to asymmetric demand and supply shocks. This, in turn, limits the potential benefits for Poland from the joining the euro zone in the near future.(original abstract)

9

Why Don't Blanchard-Kahn ever "Catch" Flu? And How it Matters for Measuring Indirect Cost of Epidemics in DSGE Framework

84%

Torój A.

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics (CEJEME)

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2013

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tom 5

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nr nr 3

185-206

EN

We attempt to apply a New Keynesian open economy model to simulate the economic consequences of influenza epidemic in Poland and measure the output loss (indirect cost) related to this disease. We introduce a negative health shock on the supply side of the economy and demonstrate that such a shock - implemented as a reduction in labour utilisation under unchanged labour cost - is not equivalent to negative labour supply shock. As expectational effects may hypothetically play a significant role in determining the economic cost of influenza, we attempt to endogenise the mechanism of epidemic in the model for the rational expectations solution algorithm to take account for the possibility of epidemic. This attempt has failed for the standard SIR model of epidemic and for the standard Blanchard-Kahn-like local solution methods, as the SIR block is only consistent with Blanchard-Kahn conditions under herd immunity of the population. In the deterministic simulation with the number of infected given exogenously, the output loss resulting from influenza-related presenteeism and absenteeism was estimated at 0.004% of the steady state level on average in the period 2000-2013. The simulated indirect cost in the New Keynesian model has turned out to be lower than the estimates that one could possibly obtain using the human capital approach. The reason for this discrepancy is the demand-oriented construction of the New Keynesian framework, and we treat this result as closer in notion to what the friction cost approach might suggest. (original abstract)

10

Wahania koniunkturalne w Polsce w światle modelu Hansena

84%

Gazda J. , Puziak M.

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nr nr 132

150-161

XX

W artykule przeprowadzona została analiza i opis fluktuacji koniunkturalnych w Polsce przy wykorzystaniu podstawowego modelu realnego cyklu koniunkturalnego, poszerzonego o niepodzielność podaży pracy. Artykuł podzielony został na dwie części . CZęść pierwsza ma charakter teoretyczny i zawiera syntetyczną charakterystykę modelu Hansena w świetle teorii realnego cyklu koniunkturalnego (RBC)Druga część to empiryczne testowania przyjętego modelu, zakończone opisem i wnioskami. (fragment tekstu)

EN

Economic modeling according to the real business cycle theory is a dominant approach in the new classical macroeconomics. In its primary version it bases on the growth model with neoclassical production function which is subject to a stochastic supply shocks. Simultaneously, employing in the analysis a rational agent which decides about labor input and deserved consumption allows to develop the model following cyclical fluctuations observed in the economy. In order to do so a multistage calibration-simulation procedure is used. The paper presents the above mentioned assumptions, e.g. seminal RBC model and the augmented model with indivisible labor supply. Both models were applied to the Polish economy. The analysis covers the period I quarter!995 - IV quarter 2006. The main aim of the paper is to verify two of theoretical structures deriving from RBC: seminal model published by F.E. Kydland and E.C. Prescott in 1982 (Kydland, Prescott, 1982) and G. Hansen model (Hansen, 1985) which develops research conducted by F.E. Kydland and E.C. Prescott and J.B. Long and C.l. Plosser (Long, Plosser,1983). The main upgrades of Hansen model in comparison to the prior theories refer to the labor market perception . The article is divided into two parts. The first includes a theoretical background of Hansen model in RBC theory perspective. The second one presents an empirical analysis, tests results for the chosen model and conclusions. (original abstract)

11

Efektywność transformacji terminów kapitału przez banki

84%

Ślązak A.

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

|

2011

|

nr nr 171 Finanse - nowe wyzwania teorii i praktyki : bankowość

297-306

XX

Artykuł przedstawia istotę transformacji terminów kapitału jako istotnego wymiaru pośrednictwa finansowego realizowanego przez banki, wskazując, że mechanizm ten zapewnia efektywniejszą alokację kapitału inwestorów narażonych na indywidualne szoki płynnościowe niż rynek obligacji. Z drugiej strony - system niepełnych rezerw w działalności banków jest stałym źródłem niestabilności całego sektora bankowego w wyniku materializacji idiosynkratycznego szoku podażowego.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The paper is related to the issue of maturity transformation in banking financial intermediary to give grounds for its better efficiency of capital allocation than bond market under the exposure to individual liquidity shocks. However, it is emphasized that the fractional-reserve banking is also the major reason of sustainable instability of baking sector due to idiosyncratic capital supply shocks.(original abstract)

12

Testing Real Business Cycle Models in the Polish Economy

84%

Gazda J.

Journal of International Studies

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2008

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tom 1

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nr nr 1

27-35

EN

Economic modeling according to real business cycle theory (RBC) is dominant approach in the new classical macroeconomics (NCM). In its primary version it bases on growth model with neoclassical production function which is subject to a stochastic supply shocks. Simultaneously employing in analysis rational agent which decides about labor input and deserved consumption allows to develop model following cyclical fluctuations observed in the economy. In order to do so multistage calibration-simulation procedure is used. The paper presents above mentioned assumptions e.g. seminal RBC model and augmented model with indivisible labor supply which were applied to Polish economy. The analysis cover period I quarter 1995 - IV quarter 2007. The main aim of the paper is to verify two of theoretical structures deriving from RBC: seminal model published by F.E. Kydland and E.C. Prescott in 1982 (Kydland, Prescott, 1982) and G. Hansen model (Hansen, 1985), which develops research conducted by F.E. Kydland and E.C. Prescott and J.B. Long and C.I. Plosser (Long, Plosser, 1983). The main upgrades of Hansen model in comparison to prior theories refer to labor market perception. (original abstract)

13

The new Keynesian Trade-off Between Output and Inflation : Time Series Based Evidence from Russia

84%

Puah C. H. , Sim C.-Y. , Chin M.-Y. , Arip M. A.

Business and Economic Horizons

|

2019

|

nr vol. 15, iss. 1

126-136

EN

As oil exports remain the main source of income for the Russian economy, the ongoing plunging of global oil prices is causing severe adverse supply shock and cost-push inflation in the country. The recent attempts at stabilisation policies by the policymakers have not been very successful in stabilising both national output and inflation. This has brought about concern over the relevance of policymaker interventions in the Russian economy. We investigate this matter by applying Asai's (1999) model. Our empirical results indicated that the trade-off between output and inflation in the short run in Russia is inversely associated with the mean rate of inflation, which supports the new Keynesian view. As such, stabilisation policies, particularly monetary policies adopted by policymakers, are extremely crucial in moderating the short-run trade-off between output and inflation with respect to the recent financial crisis. (original abstract)

14

Commodity Price Fluctuations and Unemployment in a Dependent Economy

84%

Sengupta J. , Nag R. N. , Goswami B.

Contemporary Economics

|

2017

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tom 11

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nr nr 3

315-325

EN

The interconnected issues of commodity price fluctuation, unemployment and balance of trade developments are of critical importance in times of globalization. The present paper addresses these issues in terms of a monetary dependent economy macro model that applies to a large class of emerging market economies that export their primary products. However, there exists a manufacturing sector that produces non-traded goods using imported capital goods as an input. Moreover, in such an emerging economy, the stocks of primary commodities constitute a widely used financial asset, among other assets. Thus, the price of these primary commodities behaves as an asset price, which has significant implications for the nature of the interlinkage between the real sector and the financial sector of the economy. In an absence of any capital account transactions, and under a fixed exchange rate regime, the paper examines the effects of supply shock, devaluation, capital flow and fiscal policy on major macro variables, including terms of trade, the stock of primary commodities and real money balances. The result points to the contractionary implications of devaluation, while an exogenous increase in food production produces favorable macroeconomic outcomes. (original abstract)

15

Quality of Public Finances and Economic Growth

84%

Halmai P. , Vasary V.

Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica

|

2010

|

tom 241 Macroeconomic Aspects of European Integration

249-265

EN

Fiscal sustainability is considered as a fundamental requirement of economic growth. The paper studies this topic regarding the EU Member States, especially the new ones. The ageing society of the EU countries results in growing dependency ratio and growing age-related budget expenditure as implicit requirements. All these require the maintenance of the current state debt ratio and a permanent budget adjustment. The differences among Member States are significant, the country risks are diverse. In certain countries unsustainable public finances -sustainability gap - might evolve. Sustainable public finances are considered of special importance in the system of the EMU. Due to the lack of exchange rates, risk premium it comes to the spill-over of fiscal sustainability problems. Besides the reduction in state debt the creation of sustainable public finances requires employment and productivity growth, and the reforms of age-related expenditure. The quality of public finances requires the joint observance of several dimensions: long-term sustainability, stabilization (demand shocks), adjustment (effects of supply shocks) and the promotion of long-term growth are of outstanding importance. Main factors of the quality of public finances are the size of government, the level of deficit and state debt, composition of public spending, the structure of the tax system, and the fiscal governance and regulation. The Economic and Monetary Union itself has not forced out the necessary reforms yet. The fundamental public finance reforms are, however, unavoidable. In the ageing society there is a growing need for forward-looking policies. The integrated structural reforms that could contribute to the promotion of the potential growth might bring permanent solutions. (original abstract)

16

Źródła wahań realnych kursów walutowych na Litwie, Łotwie i w Polsce w kontekście kryzysu gospodarczego

84%

Dąbrowski M. A.

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

|

2012

|

nr nr 269 Dziś i jutro polityki spójności w Unii Europejskiej

82-96

XX

Celem opracowania jest analiza charakteru zmian strukturalnych stojących za zmianami realnego kursu walutowego na Litwie, Łotwie i w Polsce, a więc w krajach, które stosowały albo system kursu sztywnego, albo system kursu płynnego. Wykorzystano strukturalny model wektorowej autoregresji i wyróżniono trzy rodzaje wstrząsów: podażowe, popytowe i pieniężne. Okazało się, po pierwsze, że realne kursy walutowe były kształtowane przez: (1) wstrząsy popytowe przed przystąpieniem analizowanych krajów do UE, a w przypadku Polski, także po roku 2004; (2) wstrząsy podażowe w przypadku lita i łata po roku 2004. Po drugie, ustalono, że w dwóch krajach bałtyckich doszło w czasie kryzysu do stopniowej eliminacji przeszacowania ich walut, które dokonało się kosztem przeniesienia ciężaru dostosowania na sferę realną. W Polsce natomiast kurs walutowy przestrzelił w początkowej fazie kryzysu wolną od wstrząsów ścieżkę, a następnie wpływ wstrząsów na kurs stopniowo zanikał.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Despite the fact that all Central European countries are member states of the European Union and have a common goal as to the monetary integration, which is euro adoption in the future, they stick to various exchange rate regimes. The goal of this study is the identification of structural shocks behind the changes of real exchange rates in Lithuania, Latvia and Poland, i.e. countries that chose to adopt either hard peg or floating. The analysis was carried out within the framework of structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model and structural shocks were divided into three categories: supply, demand and monetary shocks. The main findings were as follows. Firstly, it turned out that real exchange rates were shaped by: (1) demand shocks before the EU accession of all three countries and in the case of Poland also after 2004; (2) supply shocks in the case of the Lithuanian lit and the Latvian lat after 2004. Secondly, it was found that in two Baltic states a gradual elimination of overvaluation of their currencies took place during the crisis although at the expense of a shift in the burden of an adjustment on real output. In Poland real exchange rate overshot its free of (structural) shocks path at the initial stage of the crisis and then gradually adjusted to it.(original abstract)

17

Identification of Factors Influencing the Supply Chain of Cereals from Farmer to Finał Processing

84%

Kobyłt A.

Economic and Environmental Studies

|

2005

|

nr Vol. 7

41-47

EN

The production of cereals is an important element of agricultural production in Poland. A large area of arabie land is occupied by cereal production, white Poland produces a significant part of total European production. The agricultural market is a peculiar market from the point of view of logistics management, as it faces supply shocks, mainly due to weather conditions, white technological change not only increases supply in the longer-term, but also influences quality. Table 1 presents the production of different types of cereal in Poland in 2003. Although wheat accounts for one third of total production, the production structure is quite differentiated. When analysing the share of output according to province (Table 2), it turns out that Dolnośląskie (Lower Silesia) is the largest wheat producer with morę than 13% of total production. Almost all of the wheat (97%) is produced by the private sector [www.stat.gov.pl, 2005]. Within the private sector, 80% is produced by private farms while 20% is produced by agricultural companies [www.gov.stat.pl, 2005]. This implies that a large number of producers operate on the agricultural market, which negativeły influences the flow of agricultural products in the supply chain and significantly increases transaction costs. In this paper, first the basie characteristics of the cereal market in Poland are described. Then a simple model of the production chain is presented. Finally, different aspects of intervention purchasing (government procurement) are discussed.(original abstract)

18

Demand and Supply Shock Symmetry Across Polish Voivodeships

84%

Gajewski P.

Studia Regionalne i Lokalne

|

2018

|

nr nr 3

50-69

EN

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the symmetry of demand and supply shocks affecting Polish voivodeships and to assess the risk of asymmetric shocks in the future. The study employs the SVAR-based Blanchard and Quah (1989) decomposition as modified by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1992), and uses a new method of estimating quarterly GDP by voivodeships. The results point to a relatively high symmetry of shocks and a rather low risk of their occurrence. Shock asymmetry does not appear to be strongly related to differences in production structures, which is claimed in most theoretical approaches, including the Optimum Currency Areas Theory. (original abstract)

19

Wybrane reguły nastawione na cel a prognozowanie wskaźnika inflacji

84%

Przybylska-Mazur A.

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

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2012

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nr nr 254 Inwestycje finansowe i ubezpieczenia - tendencje światowe a rynek polski

235-245

XX

Kryzys na światowych rynkach finansowych stanowi wyzwanie dla decydentów polityki pieniężnej. Przy ustalaniu wysokości stóp procentowych decydenci powinni dążyć przede wszystkim do stabilnego poziomu inflacji, ale mieć również na uwadze zwiększenie tempa produkcji. W pracy wykorzystano modyfikację modelu Svenssona gospodarki narażonej na szoki podażowe i popytowe. W modelu uwzględniono związek pomiędzy stopami bazowymi polityki pieniężnej a stopami procentowymi kredytów międzybankowych. Pokazano, że optymalna reguła polityki pieniężnej powinna uwzględniać nie tylko inflację i lukę produkcyjną, ale również współczynniki związku pomiędzy stopą procentową kredytów na rynku międzybankowym i stopą bazową. Sprawdzono także, jaki wpływ mają rozważane reguły polityki pieniężnej na prognozę wskaźnika inflacji.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The financial crisis is the challenge for the monetary policy makers. Making decisions about the interest rates, the monetary policy makers should first and foremost strive for the stable inflation and they should also take production growth rate into consideration. In this paper we use the modification of Svensson model for economy taking demand shocks and supply shocks. In this model we allow for the relation between basic rate of interest and interbank offered rate. We show the optimal monetary policy rule should allow not only for inflation rate and output gap but also for coefficients of relationship between interbank offered rate and basic rate of interest. We also study how considered monetary policy rules influence inflation rate forecast.(original abstract)

20

Biznes cukrowniczy w Unii Europejskiej po zniesieniu kwot produkcyjnych - przypadek Polski

84%

Wnorowski H.

Ekonomia Międzynarodowa

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2018

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nr nr 23

103-116

XX

Produkcja cukru jest ważną częścią nie tylko polskiego sektora rolno-spożywczego, ale także całej UE. Funkcjonujące w tej branży przedsiębiorstwa mają własne mikroekonomiczne cele, a także przyczyniają się do rozwoju gospodarek, w których są zlokalizowane. Wyniki przez nie osiągane w dużym stopniu zależą od uwarunkowań ekonomicznych, ale także regulacyjnych. 1 października 2017 r. została przeprowadzona bardzo istotna zmiana regulacyjna, a mianowicie reforma regulacji rynku cukru, której głównym elementem jest zniesienie kwot produkcyjnych cukru oraz minimalnej ceny skupu buraków cukrowych. Stąd autor niniejszego artykułu, biorąc pod uwagę fakt, że zniesione regulacje funkcjonowały w ramach wspólnej polityki rolnej prawie 50 lat, stara się odpowiedzieć na pytanie o konsekwencje tych zmian dla biznesu cukrowniczego w UE. Bez wątpienia nowa rzeczywistość, w jakiej znaleźli się unijni oraz polscy producenci cukru, a także plantatorzy buraka cukrowego, będzie dla nich wymagająca i będzie oznaczała dużą dynamikę zjawisk rynkowych. Zwiększy się podatność rynku unijnego na światowe szoki popytowo-podażowe. Wydaje się, że główny obszar, w którym będziemy mieli do czynienia z konsekwencjami deregulacji, to zwiększanie zmienności poziomu cen cukru. W konsekwencji prowadzenie biznesu w tej branży będzie bardziej nieprzewidywalne.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Sugar production is an important part of the agri-food sector in the European Union in general, and Poland in particular. Companies operating in this industry im-plement their own microeconomic goals and contribute to the development of the economies in which they are located. The results they achieved depend, to a large extent, on both economic and regulatory conditions. On 1 October 2017, a very important regulatory change was carried out, namely the reform of the sugar market regulation, the main element of which is the abolition of sugar production quotas and the minimum purchase price of sugar beet. Therefore, the author of this article, taking into account the fact that the regulations abolished on that date had functioned within the framework of the Common Agricultural Policy for almost fifty years, tries to answer the question about the consequences of the changes for the sugar industry in the EU. Without any doubt, the new reality in which EU and Polish sugar producers, as well as the sugar beet growers, have found themselves, will be demanding and will result in higher dynamics of the market mechanism. The vulnerability of the EU market to global demand-supply shocks will increase. It seems that an increase in the volatility of sugar prices will be one of the main consequences of deregulation. As a result, running a business in this industry will be more unpredictable.(original abstract)