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2 Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)

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DO OIL PRICES DEPEND ON THE VALUE OF US DOLLAR ?

100%

Obadi S. M.

tom 54

nr 3

253-265

This paper deals with oil prices and with their relation on the value of US dollar, and draws some conclusions about their correlation. The author used the annual figures for the main world currencies and oil prices, obtained from many different sources. International commodity prices are mostly expressed in dollars, especially oil prices, or in the terms of the indices based on dollar prices. The oil prices are obviously affected by the inflation and also by the value of the US dollar exchange rate. There is a definite link between the monetary policy, the exchange rates and the other factors and the oil prices, which is analyzed in this paper.

HOW DO OIL PRICE CHANGES AFFECT THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE? EVIDENCE FROM CO-INTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY TESTS

75%

Turan T. , Karakas M. , Ozer H. A.

tom 68

nr 1

55 – 68

This paper examines the relationship between the global oil prices and current account balances in Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland by using ARDL and causality analysis. Our estimates indicate that there is a co-integrating relationship among the global oil price, current account balance, GDP growth rate, and real exchange rate in the sample countries. We find that a change in oil price has a significant effect on the current account balance in Poland and Czech Republic. Additionally, our results suggest that a change in the growth rate exerts a significant effect on the current account in these two countries. Moreover, there is a causal relationship running from the oil prices to current account balances in all sample countries in the short run. Furthermore, it seems that the growth rates Granger cause the current account in Czech Republic and Hungary in the short run. Finally, we also detect a long run and strong causality between variables in some cases.