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3 TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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Storm-surges Indicator for the Polish Baltic Coast

100%

Stanisławczyk I.

2012

tom Vol. 6, no. 1

123--129

Storm surges appear in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea and, depending on row of factors, have different sizes, specifically characteristic for each region of the sea-coast. Observed climate changes are characterized with greater dynamics of weather phenomena. To compare the risk of storm surges to different areas, a new method had to be developed. Storm-surges indicator is used to compare the risks to the South Baltic water areas, varied along with conditions therein and the hydro meteorological and local conditions. The studies on the relations between the parameters and the occurrence of storm surges were carried out as well. The storm surges indicator “W” is related to the number of storm surges observed at the stations in the particular regions, the maximal wind velocity and the max sea level occurring during the same storm surges. The storm surges indicator was calculated for the period of 1955-2008 for the Polish coastal zone. The inten-tion is to use this indicator for research and forecasting purposes. Assessment of the tendencies and variability of the regional phenomena indicators in timescale prove occurrence of certain regional changes of hydrome-teorological conditions.

Elements of Tropical Cyclones Avoidance Procedure

100%

Wiśniewski B. , Kaczmarek P.

2012

tom Vol. 6, no. 1

119--122

The updated version of the Cyclone II program was used for analyzing hundreds of cases where ships were facing dozens of developed cyclones. The program generates directions for navigators that are recommended for consideration before making decisions on passing around or avoiding tropical cyclones. Three specific situations were defined where a vessel may enter the area affected by a tropical cyclone, and its commander must consider three recommendations for safe passing of the cyclone: – vessel – cyclone encounter, where if on opposite course, the most effective is course alteration; – when the ship overtakes the cyclone, speed reduction is the most effective action; – when the vessel and the cyclone are on crossing routes (30 ÷ 90°), a slight decrease in speed or a slight course alteration or both actions can be effective.

A Required Data Span to Detect Sea Level Rise

63%

Niedzielski T. , Kosek W.

2008

tom Vol. 2, no. 2

143--147

Altimetric measurements indicate that the global sea level rises about 3 mm/year, however, in various papers different data spans are adopted to estimate this value. The minimum time span of TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and Jason-1 (J-1) global sea level anomalies (SLA) data required to detect a statisti-cally significant trend in sea level change was estimated. Seeking the trend in the global SLA data was per-formed by means of the Cox-Stuart statistical test. This test was supported by the stepwise procedure to make the results independent of the starting data epoch. The probabilities of detecting a statistically significant trend within SLA data were computed in the relation with data spans and significance levels of the above-mentioned test. It is shown that for the standard significance level of 0.05 approximately 5.5 years of the SLA data are required to detect a trend with the probability close to 1. If the seasonal oscillations are removed from the combined T/P and J-1 SLA data, 4.3 years are required to detect a statistically significant trend with a probability close to 1. The estimated minimum time spans required to detect a trend in sea level rise are ad-dressed to the problem of SLA data predictions. In what follows, the above-mentioned estimate is assumed to be minimum data span to compute the representative sample of SLA data predictions. The forecasts of global mean SLA data are shown and their mean prediction errors are discussed.