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1
Content available remote Monetary Policy of the Baltic States - new EU Members
100%
EN
On 1 May 2004, new East and Central European states that had made a major breakthrough in their social and economic system found themselves within the European Union area. A fundamental decision of capital importance for their future had been the transformation of centrally planned economies into market economies. This required an extreme determination, consistence and sacrifices, and entailed different social and economic costs. The economies in transformation carried out many indispensable reforms and among them changes in the functioning of the banking sector, development of an independent central bank and choice of a defined monetary policy strategy. The fundamental problem in the monetary policy of the East and Central European countries was the necessity to get under control the high inflation and build up the credibility of their national currencies in the face of both the changing external conditions and the differentiation of the political, economic and social situation in the group of the countries in question. Stabilization of prices on a low level became the main criterion in the adaptation processes of those countries on their road to integration with the European Community structures. This criterion also became the most important determinant of the monetary policy and its strategies adopted by the individual countries running for the EU membership. The paper focused on presentation of the methods adopted by the group of East European Baltic countries in the conduct of their economic policy. Thus, the monetary policy of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia was presented. These three countries distinguish themselves among the new EU members by their geopolitical situation because all of them have emerged from the disintegration of the Soviet Union and constitute a relatively homogeneous group of economies in transformation. Certain elements of homogeneity can also be observed in the monetary policy adopted by them. In the first part of the paper, the essence of the exchange rate strategy applied in practice by the new Baltic EU member countries was characterized. Then, in consideration of the fact that the most important conditions substantial from the point of view of the monetary policy, and related to the accession of the countries in question to the Eurosystem, were the independence of the central bank and the definition of the main goal of their monetary policy so as to make it compatible with the goal of the European Central Bank, the process of shaping the monetary policy in the individual countries was presented in more detail, in concentrating on the problem of institutional independence of the central bank and on the main goals and instruments of the monetary policy. Also, the course of the inflationary processes over the period of 1997-2005 was monitored.
EN
In this paper, we examine the extent to which monetary policy might be constrained by the evolution of government indebtedness. We employ a threshold vector auto regression (TVAR) model to capture the possible asymmetries in the relationship between monetary policy and the real economy, corresponding to a switch between low and high growth rates of the government debt-to-GDP ratio. The analysis is performed on Czech data over the 2001 – 2016 periods. The results show that the reaction of a central bank to macroeconomic shocks can be regime-dependent. We find that a rising government debt could constrain monetary policy, which manifests through an altered monetary policy transmission to the real economy. Overall, our study demonstrates the advantages of using a non-linear approach to study the fiscal and monetary policy interactions.
EN
The problem of monetary and fiscal policy coordination is discussed both in countries with independent economic policies and in countries with a single currency. The aim of this article is to discuss and empirically assess the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy in Slovakia from Q1/2000 to Q2/2013, identify significant macroeconomic variables influencing the decisions of main economic-policy authorities in the analysed country and make conclusions concerning the cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies using the game theory approach. In the article, regression analysis and ordinary least squares methods are used. According to the empirical results, the conflict between monetary and fiscal policy in Slovakia is identified. The stabilizing role of fiscal policy and problematic stabilizing role of monetary policy is confirmed. It contrasts with the other states of the Visegrad group.
EN
The paper presents the monetary policy and the principles of its formulating in the EU and the euro zone with the special emphasis on decision-making process in the commonwealth issues performed by European Central Bank (ECB). In order to enable the ECB to function properly it has been provided with a lot of independence which falls into 4 categories: institutional, personal, financial and functional. The organizational structure of the ECB is composed of: the Governing Council - the highest managerial body, the Executive Board the executive body and the General Council. Each of the above mentioned bodies has its own procedures of decision making, methods of voting relevant to their tasks and competence. The major task of the ECB together with the central banks of the EU members states of which ECB is composed is to keep prices stable. Summing up, the procedures of action used by ECB have been shaped in such a way which prevents political authorities from putting any pressure on the Bank and enable the Bank to make decisions effectively. At the same time, the decision making process concerning the monetary policy has been centralized in ECB whereas the executive functions have been decentralized on the level of national banks.
EN
Monetary base is one of these economical categories which play the particular role not only in monetary policy but also in whole economy. The main aim of the article was to present changes and structure of monetary base in Poland, as well as to define causes of these changes. In analyzed period (2001-2007) volume of the monetary base systematically increased (+53,9 billion PLN). Financial reserve accrual's variations were caused by unequal level of debt of household and enterprises, foreign assets' influx into Poland, and most of all operations of the central bank.
Ekonomista
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2008
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nr 3
329-355
EN
The article contains the results of theoretical and empirical analysis of approaches and hypotheses that concern costs and benefits resulting from Poland's accession to the eurozone. Comparative analysis indicates that the bottom line results of Poland joining the Economic and Currency Union should be - in the longer run - advantageous. The path leading Poland to eurozone seems to be difficult because the country does not meet nominal and real convergence criteria. The fundamental problem is attributable to the need of deep reformulation of structural policy: modernization of state institutions and of the economy, improvements in policy mix are the main points. Poland should be well prepared and 'ripe' to benefit from opportunities ensuing from integration. Voluntary or too early resignation from the ability to conduct own monetary and exchange policies would not safeguard the stability of macroeconomic policy under conditions of contemporary challenges facing the world economy. The article is concluded with the statement that the integration with the monetary union should be desirable and, in the overall account, will bring benefits for Poland.
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The article analyses the relation between investments and share market profitability. The research covered the investment effect in the USA and other countries. It measured the monetary policy influence on stock market index Standard & Poors' return rate. The research included also the degree of economy globalisation in a given country to explain the mechanism combining market share values and future investment tendencies in the mature and emerging economies. The researchers compared direct and indirect investment effect in chosen countries. The research proves that FED expansive monetary policy in a year T positively influences and the restrictive one negatively influences share market in the same year. The expansive policy leads also to the much higher investments next year than the restrictive one. Between the stock market index rate in a given year and real investment changes in the next year there is a positive correlation. The value of this relation reflects the strength of investment effect. Its importance describes the indicator measuring the relation between emission revenues and investment expenditure. The characteristic feature of emerging markets is that their share markets predict especially future domestic investment activities. Share market is more effective as a transmission channel than traditional rate. It is visible in all the mature markets. The investment effect can be observed also in the relation between stock exchange index and accompanying changes of business optimism.
EN
The basic question posed in the article pertains the monetary policy: should it be discretional in character or should it rely on some sound rules? The author discusses certain decision making rules (active and passive as well as instrumental and goal oriented) with the reference to models suggested by Taylor and Svensson and postulates that the potential output in these models be derived on the basis of production generated by full employment and not on the long term trend. Such a change would help the formulation of full employment policies. It is stressed that monetary policy, during the process of integration with the EU, should distinguish itself by a select character, since the standard rules for setting targets and implementing monetary policy decisions do not take the adjustment conditions into account. In effect of present day practice interest rates are set at too high levels. The article is concluded with the assessment of the results of high interest rates' policies as well as with the conclusions that address the mechanism of decision making.
EN
The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, it attempts to determine the causes of the financial crisis that occurred between 2007 and 2009. Second, the author gives an answer to the question of what systemic changes should be introduced to avoid a similar scenario in future. To pinpoint the causes of the crisis, a method based on verification of scientific hypotheses is used. The process of verification allows one to assert that the subprime crisis which started in the USA was caused by both introduction of the National Homeownership Strategy in 1993 and too low interest rates. As for the second problem, a good solution can be the introduction of a new monetary policy instrument. Central bank's new interest rate should determine a minimum level of mortgage loans regardless of the price of money on the interbank market.
EN
The Teutonic Order, as an institution acting both in the sacrum and profane spheres, permanently influenced the economic development not only of Western Europe, where its centers were located, but also and even more importantly Prussian territory, and by virtue of the trade the knights carried out, the whole of Europe. The fiscal and monetary policy of the Teutonic Order was treated instrumentally by the organisation’s authorities. It helped the Order to achieve its primary goals, namely the power of community and the wealth that grew out of it. A stable currency and adapting of the tax system to the prevailing socio-economic conditions were not favourable enough circumstances for the Order to make the reforms required to not only progress but also ensure the stable functioning of the body politic. The worsened economic situation, deteriorating at the hands of war, revealed negligence in handling monetary stability and the already too high tax burden increased recession, which contributed to the fall of the Order and the secularisation of the state. The efficient rule of the monastic state observed until the 14th century was complemented by equally efficient monetary and tax policy, and benefited the order in that it induced general economic growth in Prussia. However, the lack of suitable tax reforms and inappropriate measures in the monetary sphere by depreciation and deterioration of money in the 15th and 16th centuries led to the gradual fall of the monastic state.
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2008
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nr 3(22)
52-83
EN
The aim of the article is to present the relationship between the overall economic situation and the situation on the financial markets, and the consequences for the financial markets arising from it. First of all, the concept of financial instability is explained and main theories accounting for its origins are discussed. On the basis of that theoretical reflection, the author outlines the observed relation between the overall economic situation and the state of financial markets. Finally, he describes problems which economic authorities face in case of speculation bubbles' appearance.
EN
The author critically analyzes monetary policy pursued during the recent years by the Central Bank of Poland and poses a question whether the parliamentary bill on the National Bank of Poland correctly indicates its objectives. In particular, the issue whether the single objective, viz. the currency stability, is not too narrowly formulated? The article indicates that the open market policy in actual fact causes deep dis-equilibrium on the monetary market and identifies its effects which manifest themselves in high over-liquidity and shortage of loan potential as well as in the transfer abroad of sizeable funds in the form of foreign assets. The conclusion is that the stability of the currency, as the objective - from the macroeconomic point of view - was not rational, due to its high cost.
13
Content available remote MONETARY POLICY UNDER CONDITIONS OF 'NAIRU' FLATTENING
80%
EN
The last decades represent a period of global economy fast transformation, which is reflected in the real life and leads to changes in relations between the situation in the labour market and the inflation processes. Those changes are frequently referred to as 'NAIRU' flattening. It can be expected that it will bring important consequences for the process of national monetary policy development in individual countries. The aim of the paper is to present analysis of the influence of NAIRU flattening on the effectiveness of the national monetary policy and effectiveness of its tools.
EN
The prevailing theoretical paradigm stipulating that demand for money negatively depends on nominal interest rate is in sharp contradiction with real monetary policy. It also leads to inconsistencies. The choice of the nominal rate of interest as the argument of money demand function determines the results of some known models - should they link demand for money to the real interest rate, the results would be different. These observations lead to reconsideration of the established theoretical reasoning concerning the motifs of monetary policies. Following these considerations a new paradigm linking interest rate and the demand for money is offered. The inference is that it is the real interest rate that plays crucial role in the determination of demand for money and that this relation is quite complex.
EN
The aim of the paper is to examine the experiences of the euro zone functioning over the last few years. The authoress is considering the importance and effectiveness of using the convergence criteria in preparing the EU countries for participation in the euro zone.She then moves on to institutional and legal solutions concerning a single monetary policy in the euro zone and decentralized budget policy of the member states. In particular, she analyses the practical functioning of solutions disciplining a budget policy as included in the Pact of Stability and Rise. The conducted research indicates that the public finance regulations have not been able to efficiently reduce too high budget deficits. The new member states of the EU preparing for entering the euro zone should immediately start the reform of their public finance which would enable them to reduce the risk of too high budget deficits that might arise after replacing their national currencies with the euro.
EN
The current acute crisis actualizes the question of development and implementation of a balanced financial policy as an effective instrument of macroeconomic stabilization. The article is based on the J. Tinbergen’s normative concept that comes from organic unity of the three components of policy - targets, instruments and implementation mechanism. This allowed the authors to substantiate the need to coordinate the main components of financial policy. The subject components of the financial policy implementation are reviewed and the main ones are defined. The theoretical principles of monetary and fiscal policy implementation are researched. A comparative analysis based on such criteria as the type of activity, mechanism of influence on the target parameters, reaction speed of appropriate tools usage is done. A graphical interpretation of the mechanism of the relationship of monetary and fiscal policy as the direction of a unified government financial policy is proposed. Considering indirect signs and long-term consequences to maintain macroeconomic equilibrium the necessity of the application of the fiscal and monetary instruments in an indissoluble unity is proven.
Ekonomista
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2010
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nr 3
319-343
EN
The aim of the paper is to analyze the possibilities of overcoming the asymmetric shocks under fully fixed and fully floating exchange rate regimes, taking into consideration increasing financial integration which results in mounting capital flows. The analysis is based on the use of the Mundell-Fleming model within the framework of the theory of Optimum Currency Areas. The main conclusion is that (under the assumption that changes of nominal market interest rate are the only factor influencing the scale ant magnitude of capital flows) members of a currency union should offset negative results of the asymmetric shock with the use of instruments of fiscal policy. This appears to be more effective than monetary policy instruments. Hence, in analyzing the group of countries that want to establish a currency union or already have become members of such union, costs of the loss of monetary policy autonomy need not be related to benefits from preserving the autonomy. What should be taken into account is the quality of fiscal policy of these countries. Resignation from the autonomy of monetary policy would be a rash step only if the countries concerned are not prepared to conduct coordinated, disciplined and transparent fiscal policy.
EN
The article investigates risks of building societies in the Czech Republic, both theoretically and practically, focusing on the liquidity and interest rate risk. We show that these two risks are more theoretical and are not threatening the sector in an extensive manner recently. Nevertheless, the stability of this sector can be undermined by hasty government reforms. In addition, we use the vector auto regression model to examine the interest rate pass-through into bank and building society interest rates in 2004 – 2011. The results indicate that the building society interest rates are more stable and less responsive to interbank market rates as well as to government bond yields. This conclusion follows from the institutional setting of building societies.
EN
The European Central Bank started to stimulate European economies in 2009 since the countries of the European Union have been facing a low growth and low inflation after both the global financial and sovereign debt crisis. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effects of very low and negative interest rates on the financial position of manufacturing firms in the Slovak Republic using the balance sheet channel. The results confirm that firm-specific determinants affect the capital structure of firms. When assessing the impact of monetary policy on the financial structure in the environment of low interest rates, our findings support the existence of the balance sheet channel in the Slovak Republic, which is apparent in short-term structure.
EN
This paper examines the determinants of the cost of credit to enterprises using data from the 2005 Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) for European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We estimate an empirical model of the cost of the firm's most recent loan and show impact of monetary policy tool, such as nominal interest rate.
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