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nr 8
821 – 837
EN
The aim of the paper is to investigate the link between trust in national political institutions and macroeconomic performance in the long run in Eastern EU countries. The objective is to answer the question whether the liberalization process and the subsequent exposure to globalized markets realized macroeconomic outcomes that are still cause of concern for these young democracies. The empirical technique is the panel dynamic ordinary least square (PDOLS) estimator, through which the effect of inflation inequality and debt on citizens’ trust in national governments and national parliaments is evaluated in term of long-run dynamics. Results show a negative impact of the indicators considered and highlight the role of macro-variables in the institutional consolidation process even in presence of path dependence dynamics of trust.
EN
Current economic crisis shed dark light on the possibilities of creating a valuable and reliable short and medium term forecasts with the use of the most commonly applied econometric models in the structural or autoregressive form (SVAR, VAR), but also models of the general equilibrium (CGE, DSGE). The models failed to forecast especially at the verge of the crisis when the information on upcoming peak in the business cycle would be of the highest value. This situation was a stimulus to undertake research oriented at creating a family of models that would react faster and with higher precision to dynamic changes in the economic environment. As a result it is expected that a family of models will be specified, identified and estimated. They should provide leading and more accurate information on basic macroeconomic variables - GDP, unemployment and inflation. Each of the specifications will be subject to two objectives: (1) the minimum ex-ante forecast error and (2) immediate and reliable accessibility of data. The database applied in the procedure will comprise of time series from the Research Institute of Economic Development (RIED) on sentiment in manufacturing industry, households, trade and construction. The series on economic activity in Poland cover the period of 1995-2009.
EN
Fiscal decentralization introduces the complicated and sensitive problems, which have impact on the function of a civil society. The foundation of a fiscal decentralization is coming out of the economic, social, political, and juridical conditions with the goal of reaching the increasing affectivity, transparency, and responsibility while granting the public goods and services. The substance of a fiscal decentralization creates a relative strengthening of a fiscal autonomy of the lower government levels and an overall improvement of harmonization of the tax and expense decisions, which respect the coordination with the macroeconomic goals. In the advanced, but also developing countries many authors started already empirical research and are analyzing the impact of a fiscal decentralization on the economic growth, budget equilibrium, macroeconomic stability, development, and the size of the public sector. This type of research has never been carried out in Slovakia because of objective reason.
EN
The systematic appreciation of the Slovak Crown in the year 2004, 2005 and at the beginning of the year 2006 brings up the debate about the objectivity of this process. The authors describe the development of the Slovak currency on the basis of the selected macroeconomic indicators' development (gross domestic product, M2, foreign currency reserve, direct foreign investment, etc.). They state, that the appreciation of the Slovak Crown is valid. After the stationarity analysis of the used time series, the estimation of the economic hypothesis was realized. Authors have chosen nine of the many formulations of the simple econometric models.
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2017
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tom 2(76)
67-75
EN
This paper analyzed the statistics of the International Monetary Fund for a sample of 30 countries with the aim of assessing the level of similarity in the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators (GDP, exchange rate of national currency; part of the international investment position, which characterizes the external liabilities of residents to non-residents; foreign exchange reserves; the value of government bonds) during the global financial crisis and throughout the post-crisis period. To quantify the observed changes, was calculated coefficient of rank concordance Kendall for equal periods of time. Was conducted a comparative analysis of the results for the group of advanced economies and developing countries. Found significant differences in the reactions of each economic system to sharp structural changes in the financial sector by external shocks.
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nr 2
115 – 132
EN
Microfinance institutions finance their business activities primary with clients’ deposits, equity and subsidiary or with external funding. The aim of our thesis is to determine whether the external funding, macroeconomic development and the size of banking sector have some impact on a microfinance performance. Our findings reveal that the growth of external sources is positively associated with the number of female borrowers, interest rates or total expenditure. A significant negative effect can appear if the ratio of external funding to total assets is being uncontrollably increased over time.
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