Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Application of the Heligman and Pollard Model to the Comparative Analysis of Mortality in Poland and Russia

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Kuropka I.

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1992

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nr nr 632 Some Demographic Processes in Estonia, Poland and Russia : Scientific Papers of the Conference Organized by the Department of Forecasting and Demography of the Academy of Economics in Wrocław, Wrocław, September 1991

23-29

XX

Artykuł dotyczy wykorzystania modelu umieralności Heligmana-Pollarda do analizy zmian umieralności. Powyższy model jest jednym z nielicznych matematycznych modeli umieralności obejmujących cała skalę wieku. Zawiera on trzy składowe, z których każda opisuje prawdopodobieństwa zgonów: pierwsza - dzieci, druga - osób w wieku młodym i średnim, a trzecia - osób starszych. Oszacowań parametrów modelu dokonano na podstawie współczynników zgonów dla Polski i Rosji, oddzielnie dla mężczyzn i kobiet, w latach 1985 i 1989. Uzyskane rezultaty były podstawa, do przeprowadzenia analizy porównawczej umieralności w wymienionych krajach. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The article concerns the usage of the Heligman-Pollard mortality model used for analysis of changes in mortality. This model is one of few mathematical models of the mortality, containing the entire age scale. The estimation of the model's parameters was made on the basis of death rates for Poland and Russia. (AT)

2

Przydatność wybranych modeli umieralności do prognozowania natężenia zgonów w Polsce

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Kuropka I.

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2009

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tom 24

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nr nr 38 Prognozowanie

9-20

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Stosunkowo regularne zmiany umieralności widoczne w Polsce od 1991 r. sugerują, że przyszły przebieg zjawiska można przewidywać na podstawie opisujących je modeli. W artykule przedstawiono dwa modele umieralności, Heligmana-Pollarda oraz Andriejewa, których parametry oszacowano na podstawie współczynników zgonów lub prawdopodobieństw zgonów dla Polski, osobno dla mężczyzn i kobiet w latach 1991 -2004. Zbadano także możliwość wykorzystania tych modeli do prognozowania umieralności poprzez sporządzenie prognoz wygasłych dla lat 2004-2007 i ocenę ich jakości. Przeprowadzone postępowanie pokazało jednak, że prognozy prawdopodobieństw czy współczynników zgonów, które zostały wyznaczone były obarczone stosunkowo dużymi błędami. Mierniki jakości tych prognoz jednoznacznie wskazują na małą przydatność tych modeli do prognozowania. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Relatively regular changes in mortality noticeable in Poland since 1991 suggest that future course of phenomenon can be predicted basing on models describing these changes. In this article two models of mortality, Heligman-Pollard’s Model and Andriejew’s Model, are presented. Parameters of these models are estimated basing on death rates or probability of death for Poland, separately for males and females in 1991-2004. Also the opportunity to use these models in mortality forecasting by making forecasts for 2004-2007 period and the assessment of their quality are researched. However, the research shows that forecasts which have been determined are wrong. The quality measures of these forecasts unambiguously indicate that the utility of presented models in forecasting is not significant. (original abstract)

3

Potencjał życiowy mieszkańców Dolnego Śląska : diagnoza i perspektywy

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Kuropka I.

Prace Naukowe Akademii Ekonomicznej we Wrocławiu. Seria : Monografie i Opracowania (nr 100)

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2002

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nr nr 922

223

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Monografia poświęcona jest analizie umieralności w ujęciu regionalnym. Jest to diagnoza sytuacji w dziedzinie umieralności w wybranych zbiorowościach zamieszkujących Dolny Śląsk i określenie przyszłego stanu zjawiska. Kryterium podziału mieszkańców Dolnego Śląska było miejsce zamieszkania, wiek i płeć. Skalę wieku podzielono na trzy grupy: dzieci i młodzież, osoby w wieku produkcyjnym oraz osoby w wieku poprodukcyjnym. Autor przedstawił także statystyczny opis zmian i zróżnicowania umieralności według kryteriów demograficznych wyodrębnionych w badaniu oraz zmiany i zróżnicowanie struktur zgonów ze względu na ich przyczyny, jakie zaobserwowano w poszczególnych zbiorowościach.

EN

Decreasing mortality is always perceived as a positive phenomenon by the society at large, however, benefits from a falling death rate are not evenly distributed in the population. In certain population groups, the benefits are smaller, if any; in others - greater. This paper numerically assesses the situation based on the concept of life potential [Hersch, 1948], [Bourgeois-Pichat 1951], Life potential is a generalization of the life expectancy. It expresses numerically the expected length of life with reference to a group of persons, rather than to a single person. The individual life potential is the life expectancy. The population under study was that of Lower Silesia between 1980 and 1998, i.e. before Poland's new administrative division had been introduced. The Lower Silesian region was then divided into four voivodships (primary administrative provinces). Namely, those of Jelenia Góra, Legnica, Wałbrzych and Wrocław. The choice of Lower Silesia as the object for this study resulted from the specific nature of that region in comparison to the rest of the country. Most demographic phenomena, the mortality processes in particular, took a different course in Lower Silesia than elsewhere in Poland, forming a major dissimilarity in population characteristics of this country, which certainly can not be regarded as demographically homogeneous. Importantly too, the regional approach to Poland's demography was seldom undertaken before. Given that the role and responsibility of Poland's regional governments are presently on the rise, a detailed socio-economic analysis of each region, including its demographic background, becomes of a major practical importance. The comparison of life potentials of several populations in Lower Silesia shows that both at the beginning and at the end of the period under study, the population of the Wroclaw voivodship attained the highest life expectancy in the regions, whereas the population of the Jelenia Góra voivodship - the lowest. Unfortunately, the difference has been tending to increase with time. Noticebly, the 1980s was a period of general stagnation in the life expectancy dynamics, while after 1991, measureable progress was made. The techniques of Arriaga [1984] and Pollard [1990] applied for this study yielded a decomposition of life potential change in time by age groups and major causes of death. It turned out that the increase in male life expectancy was brought about chiefly by the falling infant mortality rate, whereas the female life expectancy increased because of the fall of mortality in older age groups. In terms of causes of death, the 1990s' increase of life expectancy in populations of Lower Silesia resulted primarily from decline in the number of deaths caused by circulatory system failures, external causes, and respiratory system decease. The mortality rates of Lower Silesia's populations, and the implied life tables, are projected until 2010 with the analogue methods. The similarities in the individual life potential changes in Lower Silesia and those in certain European countries were taken as the base to derive the projected trends. According to those projection estimates, the regional differences in mortality will remain significant, although diminishing. By the year 2010, the maximum life expectancy will be attained by the male population of the former Wrocław voivodship (72.31), while the female population of the former Legnica voivodship shall reach the life expectancy of 79.92 years. (original abstract)