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EN
In this paper the author tries to check readiness of three Central and Eastern Europe countries, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, to introduce European single currency, euro. As a background in the macroeconomic field he uses Optimal Currency Area Theory and in the mathematical field three procedures and models: Stock and Watson unobserved component model, spectral and cross-spectral analysis and cluster analysis. Achieved results allow to state that four years after EU expansion three new countries are rather similar to EMU periphery countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece than to EMU core economies like Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany France and Netherlands.
EN
The author deals with the question of unpreparedness of the Polish economy to joining the Eurozone. He shows the levels of divergence in income distribution, in the development of the bank sector in terms of its assets related to GDP, and in the financial weakness of the public sector. He discusses the possible effects of the change of currency for the public, showing the results of divergence between the market exchange rate and the purchasing power parity. He advocates throwing away all general argument for access to the euro-zone as creating illusion. Instead he proposes to scrutinize the consequences of currency change at different levels of exchange rate.
EN
The introduction of the euro is one of the elements of wider strategy of EU integration. After the accession the new member countries tested significant and rapid inflow of portfolio and direct investments. This Inflow - paradoxically - may make it difficult to introduce a common currency. It is additionally strengthened by the ineffectiveness of the exchange rate mechanism. This ineffectiveness may cause that the rate of exchange can be recognized as guaranteed, taking the currency risk off the market participants who invest in the assets denominated in the currencies of the new member countries or raise a credit in the foreign currency. This causes - short and long term - inflow of the investments, and at the same time bigger pressure of appreciation of these currencies. The effect of the inflow, except the real and the nominal appreciation, is additional inflationary pressure. The thesis advanced by the authors is that, after the asset there is a change of efficiency of the rate of the exchange in Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. The weekly courses such as EUR/PLN, EUR/CZK, EUR/HUF were examined. The correlations of delays were tested and the Ljunga-Boxa autocorrelation (Q) as well.
EN
The possibilities of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania to adopt the euro, which is one of most important task of the economic policy in these countries is analyzed in the article. The international importance of the euro, the advantages and disadvantages of the single currency are discussed. Experience of Germany in adopting of the euro is analyzed. The strategy of the adoption of the euro in Lithuania is presented. The analysis based on the data of Eurostat database shows that Poland is the country with most possibilities to adopt the euro. However both Lithuania and Latvia may become the euro zone member states, too, if they firstly will cope with financial problems of the government and will revitalise and develop their internal market.
EN
The Slovak Republic became a member of the European monetary union on 1 January 2009. In context of the financial and debt crisis, the evaluation of pros and cons of eurozone membership takes on a completely different perspective. The competitive disadvantage for Slovakia caused by the fixation of the conversion rate to EUR at the peak of the appreciation trend was in the financial crisis compensated to a significant extent by the elimination of currency risk. Strong dependence on the development of foreign demand is thus still being perceived. Eurozone membership has brought more risk than benefit for the field of public finance, especially with regard to the participation liabilities related to the EFSF/ESM rescue mechanisms.
EN
The article deal with optimum currency area (OCA) theory and examines which of the new EU member states are suitable candidates for the euro extended by EU-10 countries membership. The OCA index which is based on predicted value of nominal exchange rate variability is used to consider the suitability of monetary union membership. The index is estimated in two steps. First, relationship between the volatility of the nominal exchange rate and the fulfilment of the OCA criteria is estimated on a sample of 11 countries (EU-10 and the euro area) over the period 1999 – 2009. Subsequently, OCA index is calculated as the predicted value of the nominal exchange rate variability EU-10 countries to the euro. The lowest index values achieved the Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary and Estonia. Those countries seem most appropriate candidates for adopting the single currency euro as compared with other EU-10 countries.
EN
This paper reviews some of the factors that potentially contribute to macro-prudential weakness, and thus concerns about macroeconomic and financial system health in the new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe. In general, the consequences of the global 2008 – 2009 crisis were more severe in some of the new EU countries, and it is useful therefore to look at the experiences in the different countries to try and understand the reasons for the different outcomes and look to see what lessons may be learned. One of the factors having an impact on recovery from the crisis is in currency relationships, with Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia and Slovakia being members of the Eurozone, and some other countries in fixed exchange rate relationships. In this paper we present the construction of a new indicator (named the TT index) evaluating macroeconomic vulnerability of the new EU countries, which is based on seven macro prudential indicators and calculated for the years 2008 and 2013.
EN
The seventh Danish EU Presidency of 2012 was inevitably oriented towards the imminent economic challenges faced by the EU. Although the Eurozone crisis remained the most urgent issue facing the EU, the Danish Presidency, maintained its focus on other important policy areas as well. The four key words of the Danish EU presidency, reflecting its priorities, were to make the EU more (1) Responsible (2) Dynamic (3) Green and (4) Safe. In this article we discuss to what extent and in what ways the Danish Presidency fulfilled its ambitions concerning these four focal points. In order to evaluate and understand the performance of the Presidency, we discuss the new role of the Council Presidency introduced by the Lisbon Treaty (2009), the implications of the specific domestic context of Danish politics, and the sta¬tus of Denmark as a ’small and reluctant Member State’. We postulate that the Danish Presidency of 2012 was particularly successful in performing the role as mediator in important inter-institutional negotiations. Yet in terms of shaping the EU political agenda, the achievements were less significant.
EN
The paper gives an analysis of the financial dimension of Poland’s economic security during the economic crisis in Euro-Atlantic zone. Membership in the European Union and the high exchange rate volatility are crucial determinants of Poland’s economic security. It is considered that this factor plays and will play a significant impact on the situation in Poland due to the large amount of mortgages denominated in foreign currencies and granted by the banks. Conclusion of the analysis is that Poland has managed to maintain security after the financial crisis in 2008 and today.
EN
Business cycle synchronisation between V4 countries and the euro area is important in regard to the costs of the common monetary policy. This paper addresses the issue of business cycle synchronisation by directly calculating cross correlations, by calculating cross correlations from primary impulses, and finally by calculating output gap component correlations from common and country-specific shocks. In regard to the output gap, the results of all three methods are approximately the same: before 2001, the business cycles of V4 countries were not synchronised with the euro area (low or negative correlations); between 2001 and 2007, the correlations turned positive as V4 countries joined EU and trade between V4 countries and the euro area increased; and during the economic crisis of 2008 – 2009, synchronisation increased still further.
EN
The paper offers an insight into the relationship between the euro to US dollar nominal exchange rate and the cost of sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) of five selected countries of the Eurozone: Germany and the PIGS countries. The investigation is undertaken under the rationalized belief that the former indicator represents the status of external economic stability of a country and the latter indicator is a descriptor of their internal debt capacity. The results affirm, inter alia, that there were substantial differences in the intensity and quality of the relation between external economic stability and internal debt capacity during the pre-crisis period as opposed to the crisis period.
EN
The aim of the current study is to analyse the changes of satisfaction of people in both countries during the Euro introduction period. It will allow for a better understanding of the influence of external events on individuals. Slovakia, in January 2009, and Estonia, in January 2011, changed their national currency to the Euro. In both countries the introduction of the Euro was accompanied with positive media coverage and a general acceptance of the Euro as a tool to achieve a better living standard and greater benefits from a common European currency. Both Slovakia and Estonia carried out ESS fieldwork during the currency change period and this has allowed us to study the influence of the event on society regarding people’s satisfaction with it. We use data from the European Social Survey (ESS) for Estonia and Slovakia from the fourth and fifth rounds for analysis (ESS Round 4: European Social Survey Round 4 Data, 2008; ESS Round 5: European Social Survey Round 5 Data, 2010). The first descriptive results revealed differences between the two countries. A declining satisfaction trend prevailed in Estonia while satisfaction increased in Slovakia. A comparison of the Euro change period data with data from the same season but different years, showed that fluctuations with satisfaction cannot be attributed only to one event, and total satisfaction is possibly an outcome of many interactions, both at an individual level and in society. Therefore the continuous study of multiple effects of essential events in society on attitudes is important. Monitoring the contextual data and examining the effect of societal events helps to understand processes in society and plan for better measurement tools.
EN
The objective of the paper is to present some arguments stemming from economic theories which tend to be overlooked in the debate on adoption of the common currency. The paper focuses on the issues of welfare and efficiency. In particular, the article is devoted to an analysis of the origins of transaction costs, the role of stabilization policies, market completeness and informational issues in the process of the determination of the optimal currency system. The paper shows that insights gained from economic theory on the issue of the adoption of euro as a common currency can in a meaningful and interesting manner complement the so far known results.
EN
The aim of this paper is to examine the influence of the accession of Slovakia to the European Union and the Euro zone (Euro area) on the efficiency of Slovak banks. We use data envelopment analysis to estimate bank efficiency, and ordinary least squares and tobit regression to estimate influence of possible bank efficiency determinants. Our analysis shows that the bank efficiency increases both after the accession of Slovakia to the European Union and the Euro zone. We find that the adoption of the Euro has positive impact on bank efficiency in the longer run, although it can have short term negative impact. Our results suggest that efficiency of Slovak banks was not affected by macroeconomic conditions and banking reforms, which is in line with the argument that Slovak banking sector is in the advanced stage of development when influence of these factors is of less importance. We also find that large banks are more efficient than small banks, and foreign banks are more efficient than domestic banks.
EN
The article below is a response to the question about consequences of two milestones of contemporary Polish history to the local communities. These two events of the latest history are significant: 15 years since the territorial reform and introduction of three‑leveled regional authority and the 10th anniversary of Polish membership in the European Union. Based on the researches and replies to the questions of the respondents we are allowed to address an issue not only of potential successes and benefits connected with the mentioned events but also all failures, which create discomfort in existence of local communities in their homeland. The author presents an attitude of citizens of 6 Polish municipalities to the European Union as well as the most important advantages and disadvantages of Polish participation in the structures of the EU (connotations to the EU, satisfaction from drawdown European funds and the matter of introducing common currency to Polish economics). Data from the surveys will be confronted with the perspective of respondents to low public administration, predominantly in municipalities (an ability to absorb EU funds with all the consequences such as debts, decisions consulting, satisfaction from civil service along with the most common pathologies).
EN
The ICCS 2009 international research studies how young people in various countries are getting ready to take on their civil roles in the 21st century. This study shows a research on the attitudes of 14 year old Slovak pupils (sample of 2970 respondents) to Europe and to the European Union. The goal was to find answers to the following question: „What is the attitude of Slovak pupils to Europe and to European Union?“ The attitude of Slovak pupils to the Europe and the European Union is very open, they are interested in EU affairs and appreciate EU‘s contribution to the development of the Slovak society in all monitored areas.
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Content available remote EURÓPSKA INTEGRÁCIA – VÝZVA MLADEJ GENERÁCII SLOVENSKA
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EN
The ICCS 2009 international research project is focused on how young people in various countries prepare to fulfil their civil roles in the 21st Century. This study consists of research on the knowledge and attitudes of 14-year-old Slovak pupils (a sample of 2970 respondents) towards Europe and the European Union. The goal was to find answers to the following two questions: “What do Slovak pupils know about Europe and the European Union?“ and “What is the attitude of Slovak pupils toward Europe and the European Union?“ Slovak pupils’ knowledge highly surpasses the international average. The attitude of Slovak pupils to Europe and the European Union is very open. They are interested in EU affairs and appreciate the EU's contribution to the development of Slovak society in all of the areas measured. Slovak youth is optimistic about the challenges of European integration related to the debt crisis in some EU member states and about the united currency stability after 2010, mainly thanks to the outcomes achieved in 2009 resulting from Slovakia's membership in the EU.
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