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Ekonomista
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2008
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nr 6
707-727
EN
If Poland is to successfully face the challenges of globalization she should set out to build the society and the economy based on knowledge. The yardstick that measures advances in this field is constituted by the summary innovativeness index. Poland, however, among economies of UE occupies distant 23rd place. Poland's Development Strategy and related to it Operational Programs for 2007 -2013 stress the importance of the knowledge triangle (R&D, education, innovation). Appropriations directed towards R&D and human capital are to grow significantly, alas the effects in innovativeness are not expected to be impressive. Weaknesses in the supply of technology development supporting factors, meager demand on the part of small firms for innovation, attended by inefficient institutional infrastructure are the main causes of this situation. It seems indispensable to initiate work on long term development strategy that would focus on the national innovativeness system and on the activation of country's capital groups.
EN
The paper explains how some discounting cash flows (DCF) methods can be adapted to analyses of macroeconomic trends, related e.g. to long-term changes in GDP. Average annual growth rate in GDP in Poland in 1996-2005 has been evaluated by use of the method analogous to that used for calculation of the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) in microeconomic analyses. Contrary to the generally used geometric mean, the proposed average growth rate (equivalent to that proposed earlier by I. Timofiejuk) takes into account the accumulated volume of the GDP generated over the whole analysed period, and not merely the ratio of the GDP volume in the last year to that of the base one. This prevents the bias favouring a potential choice of the 'delayed growth' trajectory, yielding identical growth index for the last year of the period as some other (uniform or accelerated) growth patterns, but characterised by a lower volume of the GDP accrued over that period. Calculation of current value of GDP flows for past or future multi-year periods has a sound economic meaning and can be a valuable tool of macroeconomic analyses and studies of growth policy options, adding new arguments for possible 'growth now' trajectories. It has been found out that the 'internal growth rate' of GDP in Poland amounted to 4.8% annually in 1996-2003, as compared to 4.0% geometric average rate for that period. The corresponding IRR rate for the years 1996-2005 has been estimated at 4.5-4.6%, against 4.2%-4.3% geometric average. Final section deals with comparative trends in GDP in Poland and other EU member states. Strong economic upturn in Poland in 2003-2004 has been a surprise to many experts. The growth has been faster than forecast by the European Commission and OECD. It is supposed to continue after the accession.
3
Content available remote Stylized Facts of Macroeconomics: the Polish Experience
100%
EN
The aim of this paper is to provide detailed analysis of quarterly frequency dynamics in macroeconomic aggregates in Poland. The following areas of concern have been included: the balanced growth theory, the comparison of empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid Philips curve specifications and the changes of macroeconomic stylized facts across the monetary regimes. Thorough analysis of those, as well as other facts, may contribute significantly to the development of macromodelling of Poland. Analysis of other facts has also been conducted, however due to limited space is not provided. The main result of the presented analysis is to give overwhelming evidence that the standard textbook stylized facts of macroeconomics present a reasonably good approximation to the behaviour of Polish economy, providing that this analysis takes into account that the Polish time series are contaminated with outliers.
Ekonomista
|
2004
|
nr 5
665-674
EN
The problem of the way in which the development of financial markets influences economic growth constitutes one of the unresolved issues in the growth theory. This article addresses the question to what extent the results of research conducted on large samples of countries are corroborated by the study of economies of Central Europe (CEFTA), the developed and the remaining countries of EU during 1990–2000. The results obtained confirm the positive correlation between financial markets' development level and growth. In this respect the countries of CEFTA are similar to the remaining countries of EU, while they markedly differ from the highly developed countries of EU. It is concluded that the strength of influence of financial markets' development on growth depends on the level of economic development.
5
Content available remote The Role of Exchange Rate and Price Factors in Profitability Improving in Ukraine
100%
EN
The influences of nominal effective exchange rate of hryvnya and wholesale price index changes to value of profitability of the economy is defined by application of correlation-regression analysis. The recommendations about optimization of currency and price policy for improvement of economic efficiency of the economy of Ukraine are framed
EN
The paper aims to identify the major components and trends in the Polish economic growth during the years 2001-2010. The analysis was based on decomposition of the GDP, using one of the neoclassical economic growth models, namely the Solow’s growth model. The source data was obtained from reports on the state of the economy published by the Ministry of Economy and data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The obtained analysis results show that during the years 2001-2010, the two major demand factors of Polish economic growth were: (i) growth of overall consumption, notably individual consumption, and (ii) increasing accumulation in the economy, dependent on the market situation. Among the supply determinants, particular importance was assigned to the rise in overall productivity of production factors and to fixed capital increase. The influence of labour resources varied depending on the socioeconomic situation of the country.
EN
This contribution examines the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth in 28 EU countries between 1993 and 2014. The paper aims to verify the first pioneering hypothesis which claims that there is a negative relationship between military expenditures and economic growth in relatively poorer countries and a positive relationship in relatively richer countries. A cluster analysis is used to divide the nations into individual groups. The Feder-Ram model and multiple regression analysis with modified variables are than estimated for all groups based on the cluster analysis. The findings of the regression analysis mainly verified the hypothesis and showed a significant positive relationship between defence spending and economic growth in the case of more resource- abundant countries and a significant negative relationship in the case of more resource-constrained countries. However, the Feder-Ram model showed statistically in significant effects of military expenditures on economic growth.
EN
The article analyzes the nature of human capital. The basic properties inherent in human capital were determined. Was investigated the underlying model of economic growth, taking into account human capital as a significant factor in economic growth in post-industrial society.
EN
The existence of poorly shaped institutional system leads to a reduction in the efficiency of economy functioning and leaves a gap for creation of informal institutions, such as the corrupt behaviour. Corruption has a negative impact on the economy and society, affecting directly other elements of the institutional system, such as: investment, education, trade policy, political stability, public finances and institutional environment. The progress made in the techniques of measuring corruption, has created the possibility to estimate its impact on growth factors. The results of these analyses indicate the indirect negative impact of corruption on economic growth measured by gross domestic product (GDP). Still some researchers notice also a neutral or positive impact of corruption on economy.
EN
The aim of the article is to present the role of social capital, a model of capitalism and the international processes of economic integration in effecting cohesive institutional governance, which could significantly shorten the time to convergence of developing countries with developed ones. Institutional governance always grows out of a particular form of social capital, a particular model of capitalism and the willingness of economic entities to partake in international cooperation. Cohesion is possible in a given model of capitalism with its institutions if those institutions are oriented towards strengthening the competitive order of markets, complying with ownership rights and the rule of law. No less important are social norms that foster trust and the reduction of opportunistic practices. These norms prove key in limiting the transaction costs of cooperation when economic subjects intend to enter into cooperation lasting longer than a single transaction. Transparent information order demands that the tasks and responsibility for information taken by public organs and economic subjects be institutionalised. Addressing a lack of any institutional inconsistency that may stand in the way of entrepreneurship is also necessary. The rebuilding of social capital through the integration of public social groups for fighting both crisis and threats to integrated development cannot be accomplished without respect for these principles: the just division of the costs of the crisis and cross-generational justice, subsidiarity in anti-crisis policy and the optimal forms of protection to enable the proportion between household and private sector expenditures and public expenditures to develop.
EN
Results of international comparisons that evaluate determinants of economic growth are presented at first. It is noted that Polish economy is located in each sphere at one of the lowest positions among referred to countries. That indicates the need for economic reforms - the most important relate to business conditions and to public finance (high level of deficit and public debt). However the results of comparative studies contrast with the present performance of the Polish economy. It is argued in the paper that the high rate of growth will probably last two-three years and then a cyclical downturn might occur in Europe and in Poland. The economy should be prepared to cope with such a situation when the growth rate falls lower than to ca 4% p.a., to some 1-2%, as the result of economic disequilibria (budget deficit well above 3% of GDP). Finally the economy may slip into long lasting recession. Further and more far reaching economic reforms, including privatization (also of the so called social services), are needed if that is not to happen. In the years of high growth the budget deficit should be reduced not to 3% of GDP but to 1% or even zero in order to be prepared for long term spending pressures. To achieve that in practice priority in economic policy should be given to the reduction of budget expenditures, even at the cost of tax reform which is advisable per se. Are the chances of implementation of deep economic reforms in the years of high growth already definitely lost? This is the question put forward at the end of the paper.
EN
The complexity of economic development processes causes that the level of diagnosis and interpretation of that growth is still unsatisfactory. Hence, it is not possible to precisely determine its course and probably the results of development processes. The accuracy of the development concept results from the complexity of the analysis of its determinants. Consequently, we can assume that a group of economic growth determinants in particular countries and during particular periods of time is initially determined by the institutional system whose individual elements are different in character, origin, premises and the rate of changes or decline, and the way in which they influence the process of development. Thus, the state as the main initiator of the institutionalization in the political and economic spheres and as the initial organization in the political structure and an indispensable subject in the economic sphere appears to be crucial.
EN
The paper presents the analysis of factors determining the economic growth from time perspective and their presentation in selected models. Growth is an extremely complex term dependent on many conditions. That is why models describing it are based on many assumptions which, on the one hand, al- low making the analysis simpler but, on the other hand, are depicting only the 'closer image' of reality where just selected factors explain the process of growth. Taking into consideration only quantitative determinants is not enough to indicate the sources of economic development. Therefore, qualitative conditions are also included and are currently becoming the main object of growth generators re- search. Particular emphasis was placed on the supply models of growth to show evolution of the supply determinants.
EN
This text examines the post-crisis scenarios of economic growth. In order to explain the possible variants of future developments, it first provides an account of the crisis and describes the diverse types of state interventions used to control the crisis, and their immediate effects. Next the various possible scenarios of economic growth are considered, taking into account their probabilities, e.g. low likelihood of a consumer boom, possible increase in investments, but reasons as well for its possible decrease. Further on the article assesses the dynamics of the growth factors presented and the role of global co-operation in handling the crisis. The Author concludes that in order to avert a repeat financial meltdown, a mix of strategies and approaches needs to be adopted.
EN
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of public spending on economic growth and examine the sources of economic growth in developed countries since the 1990s. This paper analyses whether public spending effect on economic growth based on Cobb-Douglas Production Function with the two econometric models with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) for 21 developed countries (high-income OECD countries), over the period 1990 – 2013. In comparison to similar empirical studies, our paper will add to the existing literature by extending the sample of developed countries and providing the latest empirical evidence for non-linear and structural breaks. Our model results are parallel to each other and the models support that public spending has an important role for economic growth. This result is accurate with theories and previous empirical studies.
EN
The article dwells on three issues: (1) it documents the differences in per capita GDP levels as well as their growths rates during the second half of 20th century; (2) it provides analysis of convergence and divergence processes in the World economic development; (3) it contains a discussion on the main factors that cause the emergence of differences in economic development. The conducted review of theories and empirical findings reveals that contemporary theories and their models do not convincingly indicate the factors that are responsible for the differences in incomes. The data presented point to the fact that although, on the global scale, there is an observable tendency towards the increase in differences in incomes, but among the group of 70 high and middle income countries these differences ceased to grow.
EN
The development of knowledge based economy implies a change in resources assessment that influence economic growth. Initially, the material resources including land and capital were all important. The economic transition, globalization, development of IT technologies, growing competition have all increased the impact of non-material resources. Especially important factors became know-how and educated working force. Nowadays a broad understanding of those factors is comprised in one term as knowledge (OECD 2001, p.4). Traditional resources are still important but the main part in creating gross national product is played by knowledge (Fortune 1993 p. 2, Begg and others 1996, p. 36 ). The civilization progress have led to the situation where most people in the developed societies do not work physically but use their intellectual skills (OECD 2001, p 7 ).
EN
(Title in Polish - 'Dzialalnosc B+R i innowacyjnosc determinantami przewagi konkurencyjnej na przykladzie gospodarki szwedzkiej'). Dzialalnosc B+R i innowacyjnosc determinantami przewagi konkurencyjnej na przykladzie gospodarki szwedzkiej'). Knowledge, research and innovation connected with them are regarded as ones of the most important driving strengths of the domestic economy. It could be stated that this phenomenon refers to economic and social spheres and innovations are a kind of a determinant of competitiveness. This theory is supported by an example of Sweden and Swedish economy which is regarded as one of the most innovative and competitive economies in the world. Innovative activity is dependent on the knowledge of people involved in this activity and the quality of the R&D activity. Therefore it needs to be emphasized that Sweden is said to be a leader in the investment in knowledge. Sweden's investments in education as compared to the size of the Swedish economy have long been among the largest in the world. Thus, Sweden has one of the highest levels in the OECD. The economic growth depends on innovations, novelties and improvements which depend on the level of knowledge and skills. That consequently leads to a higher level of both economic development and economic competitiveness. As a result, Swedish economy belongs to the group of innovative leaders. In view of this fact, Sweden can be regarded as one of the richest, the best developed and the most competitive countries and economies in the world.
EN
The results in the area related to fiscal decentralization and economic growth are frequently inconsistent and somewhat ambiguous, although the fiscal federalism theory clearly promotes the fiscal decentralization gains in favour of efficiency and economic growth. The paper focuses on investigating the inverted U-shaped relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth using the GMM model (Generalized Method of Moments). After these results were obtained, real values of Slovakia are compared to GMM – EU-26 trend. The results of GMM estimation include a threshold value of fiscal decentralization, revealing the point at which a positive relation between fiscal decentralization and economic growth turns into negative. GMM estimation of the EU-26 countries sample confirms the inverted U-shaped relationship in case of revenue and tax decentralization. Expenditure decentralization seems to be insignificant. The case of Slovakia shows the conformity with the EU trend, what is evident in the case of tax decentralization and less in revenue decentralization.
EN
For over 30 years now globalization has been exercising a great impact on national economies. Global growth dynamics has always been closely related to growth in countries considered economically strong. This paper is set against the background of gradual, yet clearly noticeable changes in the global GDP breakdown with special emphasis put on the role the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will play during the next five years. The issue of each country's participation in generating the global growth is coupled with an issue regarding participation in profits of global growth as well as calls of reverse redistribution of profits earned only by several counties. The GDP per citizen reveals the truth about actual wealth of different nations as it outlines drastic differences in the quality of living among countries and regions of the world. Upon analyzing data for the past millennium it has been easy to draw a breaking line between wealth and poverty. Data regarding the population living below the poverty line (% living on less than 1USdollar per day) and its accumulation in certain regions of the world is positively shocking. These circumstances pose a viable threat not only to global economic balance but also to safety of nations.
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