Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Podsumowanie - działania antykryzysowe UE

100%

Albiński P.

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nr nr 21

65-67

XX

Teoria polityki stabilizacyjnej dowodzi, że negatywny wstrząs popytowy powoduje narastające deficyty budżetowe państw, a wybiórcza (tzw. dyskrecjonalna) polityka zwiększa deficyty strukturalne. Przeciwdziałać temu mają środki odnoszone do sfery realnej gospodarki. Podejmował je Europejski plan naprawy gospodarczej. Wspomagała go polityka pieniężna Europejskiego Banku Centralnego obniżając wielokrotnie stopy procentowe. Inne działania antykryzysowe dotyczyły rynków pracy gospodarek członkowskich oraz sektora małych i średnich przedsiębiorstw. Organy Unii Europejskiej starały się wykonywać politykę ujęta w tzw. Strategii Lizbońskiej.

2

Evidence of European Trade and Investment U-Shaping Industrial Output in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania

100%

Repkine A. , Walsh P. P.

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nr nr 4

730-752

XX

Przedmiotem artykułu jest próba wyjaśnienia U-kształtnego wykresu wielkości produkcji przemysłowej w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej w ciągu pierwszych siedmiu lat transformacji gospodarczej. Zdaniem autorów jest to następstwo zmian produkcji w różnych sektorach przemysłu wywołane szokowymi zmianami popytu związanymi z upadkiem RWPG i orientacją na rynek Unii Europejskiej.

EN

Industrial output in Central and Eastern Europe evolved in a U-shape during the first seven years of transition. The literature explains the initial collapse of industrial output as an inefficient outcome driven by supply side distortions that constrained the transition process. The authors show that the U-shape experience of industrial sectors is an outcome driven by an intrasector change, induced by investment demand shocks, in the market orientation of production away from products traditionally sold into the CMEA market and towards products traditionally sold into the EU market. This revisionist view has important implications for policy formation.

3

A Global Perspective on Inflation and Propagation Channels

84%

Gattini L. , Pill H. , Schuknecht L.

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nr nr 1(3)

50-76

EN

This paper revisits the evidence on monetary policy transmission. It extends the existing literature in three dimensions. First, we attempt to internalise potential international channels of transmission by taking a global perspective. More specifically, we explore global aggregates covering a broader set of countries (ca. 70% per cent of the world economy) and a longer time span (from 1960 to 2013) than previous studies. Second, we broaden the set of transmission channels considered, notably by exploring interactions among monetary variables, inflation and asset prices (including residential property prices). Third, we look at the potential role of public debt in driving price developments, on the grounds underpinned by fiscal theories of the price level. On the basis of a VAR analysis, we find that: (1) global money demand shocks affect global inflation and global commodity prices (which, in turn, impact on inflation); (2) global asset price dynamics respond to financing cost shocks and (very modestly) to shocks to global money demand; and (3) positive house price shocks exert a significant influence on inflation. From a global perspective, the study suggests that an understanding of inflation requires recognition of the externalities that global commodity and asset price developments exert over domestic inflation. (original abstract)

4

Inflation Goal of Monetary Policy in the neo-Keynesian Model of Economy

84%

Kaźmierczak A.

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nr z. 83

7-20

EN

In current theoretical debates on macroeconomic stabilisation policy, there is some convergence of approaches of neo-Keynesian and neoclassical schools. Both camps share the view that anti-cyclical demand corrections do not increase production in long term. The only effect of global demand stimulation is inflation growth which, in turn, slows down the economic growth. However, contrary to neo-classics, neo-Keynesians are inclined to recommend intervention policy in the case of exogenous external shocks, which reduce global demand in the economy and impede production. Irrespective of the intended economic policy, negative demand shocks bring about unnecessary decline in employment in the economy. The compensatory monetary policy to stimulate global demand can bring about production growth, due to deficiencies of the market mechanism in the contemporary monopolised economies. The deficiencies result from the rigidity of prices and wages. According to the neo-Keynesians monetary policy instruments should be the tool of the intervention policy. The implementation of inflation goal may be reconciled with the active monetary policy of the central bank. (original abstract)

5

Czy dynamikę IS - LM - PC potwierdzają kwartalne dane o polskiej gospodarce

84%

Milo W. , Malaczewski M.

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2005

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tom 193 Wybrane zagadnienia ilościowych analiz ekonomiczno-finansowych

77-88

XX

Prezentowany artykuł ma na celu zademonstrowanie przykładu rachunków stabilności modeli ekonomicznych. Rozważane jest, czy model Dornbuscha i Fischera krótkookresowych efektów szoków popytowych i dostosowania stopy NAIRU może mieć empiryczne zastosowanie w gospodarce Polski.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The paper contains an example of stability analysis of an economic model. We consider if the Dornbusch and Fischer model of short-term demand shocks and NA1RU adjustment may be a useful tool in modeling the Polish economy.(original abstract)

6

Is Poland at risk of the zero lower bound?

84%

Brzoza-Brzezina M. , Kolasa M. , Szetela M.

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nr nr 13

39

EN

In early 2015, the policy (open market operations) rate of Narodowy Bank Polski was reduced to an all-time low of 1.5%. At the same time, prices of consumer goods and services dropped by 1.5% in year-on-year terms. This raised concerns that Poland might become the next country to hit the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on nominal interest rates. The purpose of this paper is to examine the scale of this risk and its possible consequences. According to our results, the odds of the Polish economy hitting the ZLB remain low, despite having risen considerably in 2014-15. At the same time, the consequences of such a scenario would be substantial as the ZLB would amplify the economy's responses to adverse demand shocks and make their impact more persistent. The current level of the inflation target (2.5%) protects the Polish economy against the zero lower bound to a signifficant degree. However, its potential reduction would significantly increase the likelihood that this threat materializes. (original abstract)

7

Aggregate Demand Disturbances in the Visegrad Group and the Eurozone

84%

Beck K. , Janus J.

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nr nr 3 Contemporary Issues in International Economics

7-19

EN

Objective: The main goal of the paper is to evaluate, in a comparative manner, the degree of similarities in aggregated demand disturbances in the Visegrad Group (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, collectively: V4) and the Eurozone economies from 1995 to 2013. Research Design & Methods: The underlying demand disturbances are extracted using the structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model with the long-run restrictions. The identification scheme is based on the theoretical aggregate supplyaggregate demand (AS-AD) model. The obtained approximations of unobservable demand shocks are then used to infer on their correlation structures. Findings: The demand shocks among the four economies are described by the highest correlation among all chosen sub-samples. The dynamic approach revealed that the synchronization of the demand shocks in the V4 Group was stronger even when compared to the EMU core. The adjustments to the demand shocks in the V4 countries are relatively flexible and these economies converge to long-run equilibria at a fast pace. Implications & Recommendations: The V4 countries fulfil substantial criteria of an optimum currency area and could benefit from adoption of a single currency, as well as a common monetary policy. Contribution & Value Added: This comparative empirical study brings evidence on the similarities in aggregate demand shocks within the V4 and EMU countries. (original abstract)

8

Rynek nieruchomości mieszkaniowych w procesie powstawania nierównowag makroekonomicznych

84%

Kucharska-Stasiak E.

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nr nr 2(96)

5-9

XX

Źródeł powstania kryzysu finansowego 2007-2008 upatruje się w silnym zakłóceniu równowag makroekonomicznych. Wielu ekonomistów przyczyn kryzysu poszukuje w zaburzeniu funkcjonowania rynku finansowego i rynku nieruchomości. W artykule podjęto próbę wykazania, że rynek nieruchomości ma jedynie pośredni udział w powstawaniu kryzysu. Rynek nieruchomości powinien stanowić jednak przedmiot monitorowania, bowiem silne zmiany po stronie popytu, podsycane dostępem do taniego kredytu a także zachowaniami spekulacyjnymi mogą wywołać szoki popytowe, które prowadzą do powstania baniek cenowych, przejawiających się w gwałtownych, nieuzasadnionych wielkościami fundamentalnymi, wzrostach cen. Ich pęknięcie powoduje powstanie fali kredytów trudnych, pogłębiając recesje i spowalniając następujące po niej ożywienie gospodarcze. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The origins of the 2007-2008 crisis are believed to lie in the strong disturbance of macroeconomic balances. Many economists see the causes of the crisis in the disorder in the financial market and the real estate market. The theoretical layer of the paper seeks to demonstrate that the real estate market is only indirectly involved in the development of the crisis. This market, however, should be monitored, since the strong changes on the demand side, fuelled by the access to cheap loans and speculative behaviour may cause demand shocks which lead to the development of price bubbles, manifested in the violent price increases, unjustified by fundamental values. When the bubbles burst, a wave of difficult loans appears, deepening recessions and slowing down the subsequent economic recovery. The empirical layer undertakes the assessment of the real estate market as an environment which contributes to the emergence of macroeconomic imbalances. (original abstract)

9

Optymalne zasady polityki pieniężnej w prognozowaniu wskaźnika inflacji

84%

Przybylska-Mazur A.

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2011

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nr nr 185 Prognozowanie w zarządzaniu firmą

9-20

XX

W artykule zaprezentowano jeden z rodzajów zasad polityki pieniężnej – zasad nastawionych na cel będących rozwiązaniem zadania minimalizacji międzyokresowej funkcji straty. Zasady nastawione na cel zostały wykorzystane do prognozowania wskaźnika inflacji na dwa okresy wprzód. Prognozy wskaźnika inflacji wyznaczono na podstawie modelu Svenssona dla gospodarki narażonej na szoki podażowe i popytowe. Zbadano również wpływ wartości wagi na stabilizację produkcji oraz czynnika dyskontującego na prognozę inflacji na dwa okresy do przodu oraz na optymalny instrument polityki pieniężnej.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

In this paper we present one kind of monetary policy rules – the targeting rulesnthat are the solution of minimization a problem of a temporary loss function. We apply the targeting rules to forecasting of inflation rate in two periods. We determine the inflation rate forecasts on the basis of Svensson model for the open economy exposed to supply and demand shocks. We also study the weight value on the production stabilization and a discounting factor on the inflation forecast in two periods ahead and on an optimal monetary policy instrument.(original abstract)